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Phone: 312.920.0212
Fax: 855.994.4111


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9247 Broadway
Suite EE
Merrillville, IN 46410

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Crude oil now above $100

2.18.2014

Top Day Market News

Yesterday was watching paint dry. Nothing happened anywhere or any consequence except for the copper spike up to 332.

Today we get Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30.

Gong into yesterday, the dollar had lost ground to its major trading counterparts 10 days in a row without emphatic conviction. You have to go back to 2006 for such a string of declines for the dollar. Not coincidentally, Gold and silver have certainly got a boost from the weaker dollar. You do get the feeling that the rally in the metals is without much participation, however. As for equities, we’ve had a good rebound but on low volume. This probably means that the advance has been a bear squeeze and a deleveraging of short interest. There are no new waves of Fed stimulus about to inflate the market. So what will this market action produce? Probably, eventually, a key reversal.

Speculative traders continue to be short British on a 9 to 1 ratio. There are shorts in this market that must cover at some time and probably sooner rather than later.

Today we also get the Bank of Japan rate decision and guidance. They can come to the market with this decision at any time. European currency desks seem apathetic to this release.   Wednesday brings UK CPI and jobs data as well as the Fed’s FOMC minutes. Thursday shows us US CPI.

Technically, the market takes Monday and Tuesday and moshes them into one big session. Consequently, Tuesday’s support and resistance are the same as Monday’s.

 

Week of February 17 - February 21

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Feb 18

08:30

Empire Manufacturing

Feb

 

10.0

7.5

12.5

 

Feb 18

09:00

Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Dec

 

NA

NA

-

$29.3B

 

Feb 18

10:00

NAHB Housing Market Index

Feb

 

54

56

56

 

Feb 19

07:00

MBA Mortgage Index

02/15

 

NA

NA

-2.0%

 

Feb 19

08:30

Housing Starts

Jan

 

925K

964K

999K

 

Feb 19

08:30

Building Permits

Jan

 

975K

980K

986K

 

Feb 19

08:30

PPI

Jan

 

0.3%

0.2%

0.4%

 

Feb 19

08:30

Core PPI

Jan

 

0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

 

Feb 19

14:00

FOMC Minutes

1/29

 

 

 

 

 

Feb 20

08:30

Initial Claims

02/15

 

335K

335K

339K

 

Feb 20

08:30

Continuing Claims

02/08

 

2975K

2973K

2953K

 

Feb 20

08:30

CPI

Jan

 

0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

 

Feb 20

08:30

Core CPI

Jan

 

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

 

Feb 20

10:00

Philadelphia Fed

Feb

 

8.0

7.4

9.4

 

Feb 20

10:00

Leading Indicators

Jan

 

0.4%

0.4%

0.1%

 

Feb 20

10:30

Natural Gas Inventories

02/15

 

NA

NA

-237

bcf

 

Feb 20

11:00

Crude Inventories

02/15

 

NA

NA

3.267M

 

Feb 21

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Jan

 

4.75M

4.70M

4.87M

 

 

 

MARKET PLACE


Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night

Levels are for the most active futures contract


Daily Support and Resistance

 

Trend

WS2

WS1

DS

DR

WR1

WR2

Mar ES

 

U

1767

1800

1821

1843

1853

1872

Mar Nasdaq

U

 

3509

3585

3643

3673

3702

3744

Mar Yen

U

 

96.91

97.57

97.72

98.51

98.53

99.06

Mar EC

U

 

135.05

136.02

136.70

137.19

137.56

138.13

Mar 10 Year Note

D

 

124.19

125.03

125.15

125.28

126.04

126.20

Mar 30 Year Bond

D

 

131.11

132.04

132.19

133.11

133.15

134.07

Mar Soybean

U

 

12.58

12.95

 

 

13.51

13.70

Mar Corn

U

 

4.27

4.35

 

 

1.49

4.55

Aprl Gold

U

 

1244.9

1281.9

1305

1334

1338

1358

March Silver

U

 

19.38

20.43

20.74

22.11

22.01

22.53

March Copper

D

318

322

323.40

328.40

328

331

April Crude

U

97.66

98.93

99.51

100.87

101.13

102.05