2.18.2014
Top Day Market News
Yesterday was watching paint dry. Nothing happened anywhere or any consequence except for the copper spike up to 332.
Today we get Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30.
Gong into yesterday, the dollar had lost ground to its major trading counterparts 10 days in a row without emphatic conviction. You have to go back to 2006 for such a string of declines for the dollar. Not coincidentally, Gold and silver have certainly got a boost from the weaker dollar. You do get the feeling that the rally in the metals is without much participation, however. As for equities, we’ve had a good rebound but on low volume. This probably means that the advance has been a bear squeeze and a deleveraging of short interest. There are no new waves of Fed stimulus about to inflate the market. So what will this market action produce? Probably, eventually, a key reversal.
Speculative traders continue to be short British on a 9 to 1 ratio. There are shorts in this market that must cover at some time and probably sooner rather than later.
Today we also get the Bank of Japan rate decision and guidance. They can come to the market with this decision at any time. European currency desks seem apathetic to this release. Wednesday brings UK CPI and jobs data as well as the Fed’s FOMC minutes. Thursday shows us US CPI.
Technically, the market takes Monday and Tuesday and moshes them into one big session. Consequently, Tuesday’s support and resistance are the same as Monday’s.
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Week of February 17 - February 21 |
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Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
|
Feb 18 |
08:30 |
Empire Manufacturing |
Feb |
|
10.0 |
7.5 |
12.5 |
|
|
|
Feb 18 |
09:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC Flows |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
- $29.3B |
|
|
|
Feb 18 |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
Feb |
|
54 |
56 |
56 |
|
|
|
Feb 19 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
02/15 |
|
NA |
NA |
-2.0% |
|
|
|
Feb 19 |
08:30 |
Housing Starts |
Jan |
|
925K |
964K |
999K |
|
|
|
Feb 19 |
08:30 |
Building Permits |
Jan |
|
975K |
980K |
986K |
|
|
|
Feb 19 |
08:30 |
PPI |
Jan |
|
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
Feb 19 |
08:30 |
Core PPI |
Jan |
|
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
Feb 19 |
14:00 |
FOMC Minutes |
1/29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Feb 20 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
02/15 |
|
335K |
335K |
339K |
|
|
|
Feb 20 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
02/08 |
|
2975K |
2973K |
2953K |
|
|
|
Feb 20 |
08:30 |
CPI |
Jan |
|
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
Feb 20 |
08:30 |
Core CPI |
Jan |
|
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
Feb 20 |
10:00 |
Philadelphia Fed |
Feb |
|
8.0 |
7.4 |
9.4 |
|
|
|
Feb 20 |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators |
Jan |
|
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
Feb 20 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
02/15 |
|
NA |
NA |
-237 bcf |
|
|
|
Feb 20 |
11:00 |
Crude Inventories |
02/15 |
|
NA |
NA |
3.267M |
|
|
|
Feb 21 |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales |
Jan |
|
4.75M |
4.70M |
4.87M |
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MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
|
Mar ES |
|
U |
1767 |
1800 |
1821 |
1843 |
1853 |
1872 |
|
Mar Nasdaq |
U |
|
3509 |
3585 |
3643 |
3673 |
3702 |
3744 |
|
Mar Yen |
U |
|
96.91 |
97.57 |
97.72 |
98.51 |
98.53 |
99.06 |
|
Mar EC |
U |
|
135.05 |
136.02 |
136.70 |
137.19 |
137.56 |
138.13 |
|
Mar 10 Year Note |
D |
|
124.19 |
125.03 |
125.15 |
125.28 |
126.04 |
126.20 |
|
Mar 30 Year Bond |
D |
|
131.11 |
132.04 |
132.19 |
133.11 |
133.15 |
134.07 |
|
Mar Soybean |
U |
|
12.58 |
12.95 |
|
|
13.51 |
13.70 |
|
Mar Corn |
U |
|
4.27 |
4.35 |
|
|
1.49 |
4.55 |
|
Aprl Gold |
U |
|
1244.9 |
1281.9 |
1305 |
1334 |
1338 |
1358 |
|
March Silver |
U |
|
19.38 |
20.43 |
20.74 |
22.11 |
22.01 |
22.53 |
|
March Copper |
D |
318 |
322 |
323.40 |
328.40 |
328 |
331 |
|
April Crude |
U |
97.66 |
98.93 |
99.51 |
100.87 |
101.13 |
102.05 |
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