2.19.2014
Top Day Market News
Eight consecutive days of accumulation in the ES and NQ while there have been 11 consecutive days of accumulation in Silver. Markets have been on streaks without much participation.
China has been interesting to observe lately. The world’s second largest economy always is. First there was the news of China expanding credit while at the same time the bad loans the banks are carrying are at their highest levels since 2008. Then the BOC conducts reverse repos for the first time in eight months. This action actually drains money from the economy. It’s becoming apparent they are micro managing their way around some sort of problem but exactly what are the dimensions of this problem is difficult to perceive through the haze.
Empire State was soft yesterday. Crude went ballistic on expiration pressures with front month futures. Today is busy with housing starts and building permits and the Producer Price Index as well as the minutes of the latest FOMC minutes.
The stock market is obviously up against resistance here as seen by the chart below. Again, it seems as though the market is caught up in its own volatility. When the VIX is at 12 sell equities, at 21 buy them. These VIX numbers are also the 54 week range.
|
Week of February 17 - February 21 |
||||||||
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Feb 18 |
08:30 |
Empire Manufacturing |
Feb |
|
10.0 |
7.5 |
12.5 |
|
|
Feb 18 |
09:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC Flows |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
- $29.3B |
|
|
Feb 18 |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
Feb |
|
54 |
56 |
56 |
|
|
Feb 19 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
02/15 |
|
NA |
NA |
-2.0% |
|
|
Feb 19 |
08:30 |
Housing Starts |
Jan |
|
925K |
964K |
999K |
|
|
Feb 19 |
08:30 |
Building Permits |
Jan |
|
975K |
980K |
986K |
|
|
Feb 19 |
08:30 |
PPI |
Jan |
|
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
Feb 19 |
08:30 |
Core PPI |
Jan |
|
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
|
Feb 19 |
14:00 |
FOMC Minutes |
1/29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Feb 20 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
02/15 |
|
335K |
335K |
339K |
|
|
Feb 20 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
02/08 |
|
2975K |
2973K |
2953K |
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
Feb 20 |
08:30 |
CPI |
Jan |
|
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
Feb 20 |
08:30 |
Core CPI |
Jan |
|
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
Feb 20 |
10:00 |
Philadelphia Fed |
Feb |
|
8.0 |
7.4 |
9.4 |
|
Feb 20 |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators |
Jan |
|
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
|
Feb 20 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
02/15 |
|
NA |
NA |
-237bcf |
|
Feb 20 |
11:00 |
Crude Inventories |
02/15 |
|
NA |
NA |
3.267M |
|
Feb 21 |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales |
Jan |
|
4.75M |
4.70M |
4.87M |
|
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Mar ES |
|
U |
1767 |
1800 |
1827 |
1845 |
1853 |
1872 |
Mar Nasdaq |
U |
|
3509 |
3585 |
3657 |
3688 |
3702 |
3744 |
Mar Yen |
U |
|
96.91 |
97.57 |
97.18 |
98.48 |
98.53 |
99.06 |
Mar EC |
U |
|
135.05 |
136.02 |
137.08 |
137.88 |
137.56 |
138.13 |
Mar 10 Year Note |
D |
|
124.19 |
125.03 |
125.20 |
126.05 |
126.04 |
126.20 |
Mar 30 Year Bond |
D |
|
131.11 |
132.04 |
132.25 |
133.24 |
133.15 |
134.07 |
Mar Soybean |
U |
|
12.58 |
12.95 |
13.43 |
13.70 |
13.51 |
13.70 |
Mar Corn |
U |
4.27 |
4.35 |
4.46 |
4.51 |
1.49 |
4.55 |
Aprl Gold |
U |
1244.9 |
1281.9 |
1302.90 |
1333.70 |
1338 |
1358 |
March Silver |
U |
19.38 |
20.43 |
21.06 |
22.14 |
22.01 |
22.53 |
March Copper |
PRD(U) |
318 |
322 |
325.20 |
3331.90 |
328 |
331 |
April Crude |
U |
97.66 |
98.93 |
100.54 |
103.14 |
101.13 |
102.05 |
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