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Markets have been on streaks.

2.19.2014

Top Day Market News

Eight consecutive days of accumulation in the ES and NQ while there have been 11 consecutive days of accumulation in Silver. Markets have been on streaks without much participation.

China has been interesting to observe lately. The world’s second largest economy always is. First there was the news of China expanding credit while at the same time the bad loans the banks are carrying are at their highest levels since 2008. Then the BOC conducts reverse repos for the first time in eight months. This action actually drains money from the economy. It’s becoming apparent they are micro managing their way around some sort of problem but exactly what are the dimensions of this problem is difficult to perceive through the haze.

Empire State was soft yesterday. Crude went ballistic on expiration pressures with front month futures. Today is busy with housing starts and building permits and the Producer Price Index as well as the minutes of the latest FOMC minutes.

The stock market is obviously up against resistance here as seen by the chart below. Again, it seems as though the market is caught up in its own volatility. When the VIX is at 12 sell equities, at 21 buy them. These VIX numbers are also the 54 week range.

 

Week of February 17 - February 21

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Feb 18

08:30

Empire Manufacturing

Feb

 

10.0

7.5

12.5

 

Feb 18

09:00

Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Dec

 

NA

NA

-

$29.3B

 

Feb 18

10:00

NAHB Housing Market Index

Feb

 

54

56

56

 

Feb 19

07:00

MBA Mortgage Index

02/15

 

NA

NA

-2.0%

 

Feb 19

08:30

Housing Starts

Jan

 

925K

964K

999K

 

Feb 19

08:30

Building Permits

Jan

 

975K

980K

986K

 

Feb 19

08:30

PPI

Jan

 

0.3%

0.2%

0.4%

 

Feb 19

08:30

Core PPI

Jan

 

0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

 

Feb 19

14:00

FOMC Minutes

1/29

 

 

 

 

 

Feb 20

08:30

Initial Claims

02/15

 

335K

335K

339K

 

Feb 20

08:30

Continuing Claims

02/08

 

2975K

2973K

2953K

 

                   

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Feb 20

08:30

CPI

Jan

 

0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

 

Feb 20

08:30

Core CPI

Jan

 

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

 

Feb 20

10:00

Philadelphia Fed

Feb

 

8.0

7.4

9.4

 

Feb 20

10:00

Leading Indicators

Jan

 

0.4%

0.4%

0.1%

 

Feb 20

10:30

Natural Gas Inventories

02/15

 

NA

NA

-237bcf

 

Feb 20

11:00

Crude Inventories

02/15

 

NA

NA

3.267M

 

Feb 21

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Jan

 

4.75M

4.70M

4.87M

 

 

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

 

Trend

WS2

WS1

DS

DR

WR1

WR2

Mar ES

 

U

1767

1800

1827

1845

1853

1872

Mar Nasdaq

U

 

3509

3585

3657

3688

3702

3744

Mar Yen

U

 

96.91

97.57

97.18

98.48

98.53

99.06

Mar EC

U

 

135.05

136.02

137.08

137.88

137.56

138.13

Mar 10 Year Note

D

 

124.19

125.03

125.20

126.05

126.04

126.20

Mar 30 Year Bond

D

 

131.11

132.04

132.25

133.24

133.15

134.07

Mar Soybean

U

 

12.58

12.95

13.43

13.70

13.51

13.70

Mar Corn

U

4.27

4.35

4.46

4.51

1.49

4.55

Aprl Gold

U

1244.9

1281.9

1302.90

1333.70

1338

1358

March Silver

U

19.38

20.43

21.06

22.14

22.01

22.53

March Copper

PRD(U)

318

322

325.20

3331.90

328

331

April Crude

U

97.66

98.93

100.54

103.14

101.13

102.05