Top Day Recommendations
2.21
A bit late but a bit later is better than not at all.
No eco releases. Of course, Greece receives second bail out infusion after agreeing to reduce indebtedness from 160% of GDP to 120%. China also reduced reserve rates on banks suggesting economic weakness there. Iran cuts exports of oil to France and Britain. Of course, Britain doesn’t actually buy Iranian oil but who’s counting. Iran is losing 18% of its exports with the cuts to Europe and this will probably end up going to China. With signs of moderate economic growth and some signs of contractionin China, the Iranian premium in crude is getting excessive. Resistance today is 105.50.
One disorientating thing to today’s trade is the holiday on Monday. Stocks didn’t trade but everything else did in shortened sessions. Still Monday’s trade will be absorbed into Tuesday creating one massive day which has a way of distorting the usual levels of support and resistance.
Week of February 20 - February 24
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Feb | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 02/18 | NA | NA | -1.0% | ||
| 22 | ||||||||
| Feb | 10:00 | Existing Home Sales | Jan | 4.50M | 4.63M | 4.61M | ||
| 22 | ||||||||
| Feb | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 02/18 | 360K | 355K | 348K | ||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| 23 | ||||||||
| Feb | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 02/11 | 3500K | 3450K | 3426K | ||
| 23 | ||||||||
| Feb | 10:00 | FHFA Housing Price | Dec | NA | NA | 1.0% | ||
| 23 | Index | |||||||
| Feb | 11:00 | Crude Inventories | 02/18 | NA | NA | - | ||
| 23 | 0.171M | |||||||
| Feb | 09:55 | Michigan Sentiment - | Feb | 73.5 | 73.0 | 72.5 | ||
| 24 | Final | |||||||
| Feb | 10:00 | New Home Sales | Jan | 320K | 315K | 307K | ||
| 24 | ||||||||
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
| R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance | |||||||
| Levels are for the most active futures contract | |||||||
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Mar | U | 1325 | 1342 | 1354.75 | 1366.25 | 1369 | 1378 |
| ES | |||||||
| Mar | U | 2517 | 2549 | 2571 | 2595 | 2607 | 2632 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Mar | D | 123.2 | 124.57 | 124.83 | 126.68 | 128.25 | 130.61 |
| 5 | |||||||
| Yen | |||||||
| Mar | PRD(U) | 128.2 | 129.94 | 131.17 | 132.41 | 133.04 | 134.49 |
| 9 | |||||||
| EC | |||||||
| Mar 10 | PRD(D) | 129.2 | 130.13 | 130.12 | 131.04 | 131.19 | 132.08 |
| Year | 9 | ||||||
| Mar 30 | PRD(D) | 140.1 | 141.19 | 141.09 | 142.16 | 143.13 | 144.22 |
| Year | 2 | ||||||
| Mar | U | 12.16 | 12.41 | 12.58 | 12.75 | 12.69 | 12.98 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| March | U | 6.11 | 6.26 | 6.29 | 6.47 | 6.516 | 6.616 |
| Corn | |||||||
| April | D | 1691. | 1708.2 | 1717 | 1746 | 1740.7 | 1756.2 |
| Gold | 2 | ||||||
| Mar | D | 31.91 | 32.59 | 32.94 | 33.95 | 33.96 | 34.70 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Mar | D | 355 | 363 | 365 | 388 | 385 | 398 |
| Copper | |||||||
| April | U | 97.74 | 101.06 | 102.60 | 105.50 | 104.82 | 107.82 |
Crude
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.