Top Day Recommendations
2.24
Just Michigan consumer sentiment and new home sales today. In the current skewed environment of market cycles, Friday is the new Thursday. For whatever reason, Monday is a day of regaining bearings; Tuesday and Thursday are the big market movers while Wednesday is a plateau day. Of course, all things change but this is the current map but as we all know the map is not the territory. Oil and silver took off yesterday while the oil story has a lot to do with refinery capacity or lack thereof as refineries switch over to gasoline. Higher oil only benefits the Middle East and Russia and hurts everyone else especially the world’s best customer, China and Japan who has severely cut back on its nuclear production. Equities moved higher but higher oil prices are not a positive for stocks as the cost of manufacture and transportation increase and cut into margins. We did not get the turn lower in stocks on the close and today looks like a flattening out of positions taken yesterday.
Week of February 20 - February 24
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Feb | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 02/18 | NA | NA | -1.0% | ||
| 22 | ||||||||
| Feb | 10:00 | Existing Home Sales | Jan | 4.50M | 4.63M | 4.61M | ||
| 22 | ||||||||
| Feb | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 02/18 | 360K | 355K | 348K | ||
| 23 | ||||||||
| Feb | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 02/11 | 3500K | 3450K | 3426K | ||
| 23 | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Feb | 10:00 | FHFA Housing Price | Dec | NA | NA | 1.0% | ||
| 23 | Index | |||||||
| Feb | 11:00 | Crude Inventories | 02/18 | NA | NA | - | ||
| 23 | 0.171M | |||||||
| Feb | 09:55 | Michigan Sentiment - | Feb | 73.5 | 73.0 | 72.5 | ||
| 24 | Final | |||||||
| Feb | 10:00 | New Home Sales | Jan | 320K | 315K | 307K | ||
| 24 | ||||||||
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
| Levels are for the most active futures contract | |||||||
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Mar | P | 1325 | 1342 | 1354.25 | 1327.50 | 1369 | 1378 |
| ES | |||||||
| Mar | D | 2517 | 2549 | 2579 | 2623 | 2607 | 2632 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Mar | D | 123.2 | 124.57 | 124.08 | 125.25 | 128.25 | 130.61 |
| 5 | |||||||
| Yen | |||||||
| Mar | U | 128.2 | 129.94 | 132.51 | 134.65 | 133.04 | 134.49 |
| EC | 9 | ||||||
| Mar 10 | PRD(U) | 129.2 | 130.13 | 130.15 | 131.13 | 131.19 | 132.08 |
| Year | 9 | ||||||
| Mar 30 | PRD(U) | 140.1 | 141.19 | 141.30 | 143.06 | 143.13 | 144.22 |
| Year | 2 | ||||||
| Mar | U | 12.16 | 12.41 | 12.68 | 12.82 | 12.69 | 12.98 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| March | PRD(U) | 6.11 | 6.26 | 6.28 | 6.44 | 6.516 | 6.616 |
| Corn | |||||||
| April | U | 1691. | 1708.2 | 1766 | 1792 | 1740.7 | 1756.2 |
| 2 | |||||||
| Gold | |||||||
| Mar | D | 31.91 | 32.59 | 34.65 | 36.03 | 33.96 | 34.70 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Mar | D | 355 | 363 | 374 | 383 | 385 | 398 |
| Copper | |||||||
| April | U | 97.74 | 101.06 | 105.94 | 110.63 | 104.82 | 107.82 |
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.