02.27.13
Top Day Recommendations
Overnight, a mixed bag with the dollar weaker as the durable goods fell 5.2%. There is another metric which indicates this number is not quite as bad as it first looks; nondefense capital goods orders were up 6.3%. Stocks modestly higher, the dollar modestly weaker, bonds higher and, you can see from the grid below, today is a make or break day for the metals. In other words they could reverse their intermediate negative trends. We’ll see get pending home sales at 10 o’clock. Yesterday’s number was obviously good in terms of new home sales. Also we get the weekly supply/demand numbers for crude oil and its products. Oil trading is quiet ahead of this. Of course the most notable aspect of the oil market is gasoline prices over four dollars a gallon at the pump in February, hardly the peak of the driving season.
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Week of February 25 - March 01 |
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|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
|
Feb 26 |
09:00 |
Case-Shiller 20-city Index |
Dec |
|
6.0% |
6.5% |
5.5% |
|
|
|
Feb 26 |
09:00 |
FHFA Housing Price Index |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
0.6% |
|
|
|
Feb 26 |
10:00 |
New Home Sales |
Jan |
|
375K |
385K |
369K |
|
|
|
Feb 26 |
10:00 |
Consumer Confidence |
Feb |
|
62.5 |
62.0 |
58.6 |
|
|
|
Feb 27 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
02/23 |
|
NA |
NA |
-1.7% |
|
|
|
Feb 27 |
08:30 |
Durable Orders |
Jan |
|
-5.0% |
-4.0% |
4.3% |
4.6% |
|
|
Feb 27 |
08:30 |
Durable Goods –ex transportation |
Jan |
|
-0.5% |
0.2% |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
|
Feb 27 |
10:00 |
Pending Home Sales |
Jan |
|
1.0% |
1.0% |
-4.3% |
|
|
Feb 27 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
02/23 |
|
NA |
NA |
4.143M |
|
|
Feb 28 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
02/23 |
|
365K |
360K |
362K |
|
|
Feb 28 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
02/16 |
|
3150K |
3150K |
3148K |
|
|
Feb 28 |
08:30 |
GDP - Second Estimate |
Q4 |
|
0.1% |
0.5% |
-0.1% |
|
|
Feb 28 |
08:30 |
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate |
Q4 |
|
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
|
Feb 28 |
09:45 |
Chicago PMI |
Feb |
|
54.0 |
54.0 |
55.6 |
|
|
Feb 28 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
02/23 |
|
NA |
NA |
-127 bcf |
|
|
Mar 01 |
08:30 |
Personal Income |
Jan |
|
-2.4% |
-2.4% |
2.6% |
|
|
Mar 01 |
08:30 |
Personal Spending |
Jan |
|
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
Mar 01 |
08:30 |
PCE Prices - Core |
Jan |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
Mar 01 |
09:55 |
Michigan Sentiment - Final |
Feb |
|
75.0 |
76.3 |
76.3 |
|
|
Mar 01 |
10:00 |
ISM Index |
Feb |
|
52.0 |
52.4 |
53.1 |
|
|
Mar 01 |
10:00 |
Construction Spending |
Jan |
|
0.2% |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
|
Mar 01 |
14:00 |
Auto Sales |
Feb |
|
NA |
NA |
5.6M |
|
|
Mar 01 |
14:00 |
Truck Sales |
Feb |
|
NA |
NA |
6.5M |
|
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day (Change of Trend) S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Mar ES |
U |
1478 |
1496 |
1484.25 |
1499.25 |
1531 |
1548 |
|
Mar Nasdaq |
U |
2653 |
2694 |
2692 |
2721 |
2781 |
2827 |
|
Mar Yen |
PRD(U) |
105.34 |
106.60 |
107.80 |
109.74 |
107.87 |
108.68 |
|
Mar EC |
D |
129.65 |
130.73 |
129.61 |
131.14 |
133.63 |
135.45 |
|
Mar 10 Year |
U |
130.27 |
131.12 |
132.14 |
133.05 |
132.06 |
132.16 |
|
Mar 30 Year |
U |
141.29 |
142.30 |
145.07 |
146.23 |
144.20 |
145.09 |
|
May Soybeans |
D |
13.77 |
14.10 |
14.09 |
14.42 |
14.88 |
15.29 |
|
May Corn |
D |
6.72 |
6.78 |
6.86 |
6.99 |
6.96 |
7.06 |
|
April Gold |
PRD(U) |
1520 |
1550 |
1592.90 |
1628 |
1614 |
1679 |
|
May Silver |
PRD(U) |
27.20 |
27.98 |
28.78 |
29.67 |
29.87 |
30.97 |
|
May Copper |
PRD(U) D |
340 |
345 |
354 |
360 |
370 |
384 |
|
April Crude |
U |
89.38 |
91.37 |
91.88 |
93.40 |
96.42 |
99.48 |
|
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