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The Fed Chairman testifies today

Top Day Recommendations

2.29

Quiet overnight. The Euro is under light pressure as the European Central Bank awarded a second round of 3 year loans to banks. This effectively increases the Euro money supply by 529.5 billion euros, beating the forecast by economists for a loan increase of 470 billion euros. The funds will be available to 800 institutions.

The Fed Chairman testifies today. It’s expected that he will reiterate the Fed’s low interest rate policy. The high yielding currency Aussie gained against the dollar and the Euro.

We also get the second estimate of Gross Domestic Product, Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index and crude inventories at 10:30. Crude is in a technical position to reverse its trend today to the downside.

Week of February 27 - March 02

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Feb 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jan   -0.5% 1.0% -3.5%  
27    
               
Feb 08:30 Durable Orders Jan   -1.3% -1.4% 3.0%  
28    
               
Feb 08:30 Durable Orders -ex Jan   0.6% 0.2% 2.2%  
28 Transportation    
             
Feb 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Dec   -3.6% -3.6% -3.7%  
28 Index    
             
Feb 10:00 Consumer Confidence Feb   63.5 62.5 61.1  
28    
               
Feb 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 02/25   NA NA -4.5%  
29    
               
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Feb 08:30 GDP - Second Q4   2.8% 2.8% 2.8%  
29 Estimate    
             
Feb 08:30 GDP Deflator - Q4   0.4% 0.4% 0.4%  
29 Second Estimate    
             
Feb 09:45 Chicago PMI Feb   59.0 60.0 60.2  
29    
               
Feb 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/25   NA NA 1.633M  
29    
               
Feb 14:00 Fed's Beige Book Feb          
29          
               
Mar 08:30 Initial Claims 02/25   355K 355K 351K  
01    
               
Mar 08:30 Continuing Claims 02/18   3450K 3425K 3392K  
01    
               
Mar 08:30 Personal Income Jan   0.4% 0.4% 0.5%  
01    
               
Mar 08:30 Personal Spending Jan   0.3% 0.3% 0.0%  
01    
               
Mar 08:30 PCE Prices - Core Jan   0.2% 0.2% 0.2%  
01    
               
Mar 10:00 ISM Index Feb   54.5 54.5 54.1  
01    
               
Mar 10:00 Construction Jan   0.5% 1.0% 1.5%  
01 Spending    
             
Mar 14:00 Auto Sales Feb   NA NA 5.00M  
01    
               
Mar 14:00 Truck Sales Feb   NA NA 5.73M  
01    
               

MARKET PLACE

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

  Trend WS2 WS1 DS DR WR1 WR2
             
               
Mar U 1341. 1352.50 1366 1379 1371.75 1380.25
75          
ES            
             
Mar U 2553. 2577 2614 2652 2617 2633.50
           
Nasdaq   13          
             
Mar D 121.3 122.43 123.64 125.51 125.31 127.11
           
Yen   5          
             
Mar U 130.7 132.65 134.07 135.23 135.74 136.82
           
EC   0          
             
Mar 10 U 130.1 130.19 131.08 131.28 131.17 131.28
0          
Year            
             
               
Mar 30 U 140.0 141.19 142.31 144.11 143.26 144.17.
           
Year   7          
             
Mar U 12.49 12.64 12.95 13.16 12.89 12.99
           
Soybea              
ns              
March U 6.17 6.29 6.45 6.61 6.48 6.566
           
Corn              
April U 1704. 1739.8 1772 1808 1797.2 1819.5
7          
Gold            
             
Mar PRD(U) 32.41 33.89 35.89 38.47 36.28 37.20
           
Silver              
Mar U 355 363 386 395 385 398
           
Copper              
April PRD(D) 102.7 106.17 104.72 108.12 111.51 113.40
           
Crude   2          
             
               

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.