Top Day Recommendations
3.01
What a day. I can’t remember when gold made a new high for the month and a new low for that same month on the same day. Expect more selling this morning on margin liquidations. The selling was a reaction to the lack of a mention of QE3 by the Fed Chairman yesterday. Also the Beige Book was upbeat and Chicago area PMI was better than expected and the most recent estimate of GDP was higher than expected. All of this served to make the dollar stronger and the argument for QE3 not all that compelling. Buyers of gold between 1750 and 1775 looking for a pop to 1804 were trapped and the route was on. The crowded room emptied quickly. Oil fell but regaining its footing. Stocks were off but couldn’t hold a candle to the metals complex. So, where do we go from here? The metals have to rebalance so until that process is completed, stay away.
Week of February 27 - March 02
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Feb | 10:00 | Pending Home Sales | Jan | -0.5% | 1.0% | -3.5% | ||
| 27 | ||||||||
| Feb | 08:30 | Durable Orders | Jan | -1.3% | -1.4% | 3.0% | ||
| 28 | ||||||||
| Feb | 08:30 | Durable Orders -ex | Jan | 0.6% | 0.2% | 2.2% | ||
| 28 | Transportation | |||||||
| Feb | 09:00 | Case-Shiller 20-city | Dec | -3.6% | -3.6% | -3.7% | ||
| 28 | Index | |||||||
| Feb | 10:00 | Consumer Confidence | Feb | 63.5 | 62.5 | 61.1 | ||
| 28 | ||||||||
| Feb | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 02/25 | NA | NA | -4.5% | ||
| 29 | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Feb | 08:30 | GDP - Second | Q4 | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | ||
| 29 | Estimate | |||||||
| Feb | 08:30 | GDP Deflator - | Q4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | ||
| 29 | Second Estimate | |||||||
| Feb | 09:45 | Chicago PMI | Feb | 59.0 | 60.0 | 60.2 | ||
| 29 | ||||||||
| Feb | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 02/25 | NA | NA | 1.633M | ||
| 29 | ||||||||
| Feb | 14:00 | Fed's Beige Book | Feb | |||||
| 29 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 02/25 | 355K | 355K | 351K | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 02/18 | 3450K | 3425K | 3392K | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Personal Income | Jan | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Personal Spending | Jan | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | PCE Prices - Core | Jan | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Mar | 10:00 | ISM Index | Feb | 54.5 | 54.5 | 54.1 | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Mar | 10:00 | Construction | Jan | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | ||
| 01 | Spending | |||||||
| Mar | 14:00 | Auto Sales | Feb | NA | NA | 5.00M | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Mar | 14:00 | Truck Sales | Feb | NA | NA | 5.73M | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Mar | U | 1341. | 1352.50 | 1355 | 1375.50 | 1371.75 | 1380.25 |
| 75 | |||||||
| ES | |||||||
| Mar | U | 2553. | 2577 | 2609.7 | 2640.75 | 2617 | 2633.50 |
| 5 | |||||||
| Nasdaq | 13 | ||||||
| Mar | D | 121.3 | 122.43 | 122.59 | 124.22 | 125.31 | 127.11 |
| Yen | 5 | ||||||
| Mar | U | 130.7 | 132.65 | 132.73 | 134.45 | 135.74 | 136.82 |
| EC | 0 | ||||||
| Mar 10 | U | 130.1 | 130.19 | 130.02 | 131.12 | 131.17 | 131.28 |
| 0 | |||||||
| Year | |||||||
| Mar 30 | PRD(D) | 140.0 | 141.19 | 140.06 | 142.10 | 143.26 | 144.17. |
| Year | 7 | ||||||
| May | U | 12.49 | 12.64 | 13.01 | 13.26 | 12.89 | 12.99 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| May | U | 6.17 | 6.29 | 6.49 | 6.61 | 6.48 | 6.566 |
| Corn | |||||||
| April | U | 1704. | 1739.8 | 1669 | 1772 | 1797.2 | 1819.5 |
| 7 | |||||||
| Gold | |||||||
| May | D | 32.41 | 33.89 | 33.11 | 36.87 | 36.28 | 37.20 |
| Silver | |||||||
| May | U | 355 | 363 | 380 | 395 | 385 | 398 |
| Copper | |||||||
| April | U) | 102.7 | 106.17 | 105.46 | 108.05 | 111.51 | 113.40 |
| Crude | 2 | ||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.