03.01.13
Top Day Market News
Overnight, the Chinese Manufacturing Index contracted more than expected. Consequently, copper, the Chinese barometer, fell to a two month low. WTI crude is trading at its lowest level in two months, as supplies remain high. At month’s end, the dollar had its best performance since last May.
Then there’s the trepidation at the implementation of the sequestration. So far it looks like it’s having a chilling effect. The implementation will be gradual but the net effect is to reduce 2% from the budget. Again, the commonly received wisdom is that cuts are needed but not these cuts and not at this time.
Personal income dropped a precipitous -3.6% while spending was up 0.2%. The pundits are trying to figure out why the drop in personal income. Later we have the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and the Institute for supply management index at 10 o’clock to close out this tumultuous volatile week of attempts at new highs amidst a sea of frustration created by the political process
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Week of February 25 - March 01 |
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Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
|
Feb 26 |
09:00 |
Case-Shiller 20-city Index |
Dec |
|
6.0% |
6.5% |
5.5% |
|
|
|
Feb 26 |
09:00 |
FHFA Housing Price Index |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
0.6% |
|
|
Feb 26 |
10:00 |
New Home Sales |
Jan |
|
375K |
385K |
369K |
|
|
Feb 26 |
10:00 |
Consumer Confidence |
Feb |
|
62.5 |
62.0 |
58.6 |
|
|
Feb 27 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
02/23 |
|
NA |
NA |
-1.7% |
|
|
Feb 27 |
08:30 |
Durable Orders |
Jan |
|
-5.0% |
-4.0% |
4.3% |
4.6% |
|
Feb 27 |
08:30 |
Durable Goods –ex transportation |
Jan |
|
-0.5% |
0.2% |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
Feb 27 |
10:00 |
Pending Home Sales |
Jan |
|
1.0% |
1.0% |
-4.3% |
|
|
Feb 27 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
02/23 |
|
NA |
NA |
4.143M |
|
|
Feb 28 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
02/23 |
|
365K |
360K |
362K |
|
|
Feb 28 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
02/16 |
|
3150K |
3150K |
3148K |
|
|
Feb 28 |
08:30 |
GDP - Second Estimate |
Q4 |
|
0.1% |
0.5% |
-0.1% |
|
|
Feb 28 |
08:30 |
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate |
Q4 |
|
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
|
Feb 28 |
09:45 |
Chicago PMI |
Feb |
|
54.0 |
54.0 |
55.6 |
|
|
Feb 28 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
02/23 |
|
NA |
NA |
-127 bcf |
|
|
Mar 01 |
08:30 |
Personal Income |
Jan |
|
-2.4% |
-2.4% |
2.6% |
|
|
Mar 01 |
08:30 |
Personal Spending |
Jan |
|
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
Mar 01 |
08:30 |
PCE Prices - Core |
Jan |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
Mar 01 |
09:55 |
Michigan Sentiment - Final |
Feb |
|
75.0 |
76.3 |
76.3 |
|
|
Mar 01 |
10:00 |
ISM Index |
Feb |
|
52.0 |
52.4 |
53.1 |
|
|
Mar 01 |
10:00 |
Construction Spending |
Jan |
|
0.2% |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
|
Mar 01 |
14:00 |
Auto Sales |
Feb |
|
NA |
NA |
5.6M |
|
|
Mar 01 |
14:00 |
Truck Sales |
Feb |
|
NA |
NA |
6.5M |
|
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day (Change of Trend) S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Mar ES |
U |
1478 |
1496 |
1506.5 |
1522.5 |
1531 |
1548 |
|
Mar Nasdaq |
U |
2653 |
2694 |
2726.50 |
2755 |
2781 |
2827 |
|
Mar Yen |
D |
105.34 |
106.60 |
107.10 |
108.49 |
107.87 |
108.68 |
|
Mar EC |
D |
129.65 |
130.73 |
130.25 |
131.34 |
133.63 |
135.45 |
|
Mar 10 Year |
U |
130.27 |
131.12 |
131.13 |
131.27 |
132.06 |
132.16 |
|
Mar 30 Year |
U |
141.29 |
142.30 |
143.13 |
144.20 |
144.20 |
145.09 |
|
May Soybeans |
PRD(U) |
13.77 |
14.10 |
14.34 |
14.68 |
14.88 |
15.29 |
|
May Corn |
U |
6.72 |
6.78 |
6.96 |
7.13 |
6.96 |
7.06 |
|
April Gold |
D |
1520 |
1550 |
1567 |
1595 |
1614 |
1679 |
|
May Silver |
D |
27.20 |
27.98 |
28.15 |
28.94 |
29.87 |
30.97 |
|
May Copper |
D |
340 |
345 |
350 |
358 |
370 |
384 |
|
April Crude |
U |
89.38 |
91.37 |
91.35 |
92.96 |
96.42 |
99.48 |
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