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The market continues to generate heat focusing on potential regime change in Libya

Top Day Recommendations

 3.03.11

As the winter of our discontent rolls on encasing us in below seasonal temperatures, the market will continue to generate heat focusing on potential regime change in Libya. It’s interesting to note that when there is very little going on in the market in terms of fundamental influence, the market is usually constrained by technical considerations. When chaos is introduced and no one seems to know what is going on, technical come into play as well. In other words, 103.41 in crude, the spike seen Wednesday night a week ago was ironically a technical level and is also resistance today, technically.

Non-farm weekly payrolls drop 20K and stocks lift a bit and bonds drop a bit. 

ECB leaves rates unchanged although it’s widely believed that they will raise rates first which will actually work against the rehabilitation of Greece and Portugal.

 

Still struggling with this format so apologies.

 

This Week's Calendar

 

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com

Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Mar 02

07:00

MBA Mortgage Index

02/25

-6.5%

NA

NA

+13.2%

 

Mar 02

07:30

Challenger Job Cuts

Feb

20.0%

NA

NA

-46.1%

 

Mar 02

08:15

ADP Employment Change

Feb

217K

160K

165K

189K

187K

Mar 02

10:30

Crude Inventories

02/26

 

NA

NA

0.822M

 

Mar 02

14:00

Fed's Beige Book

Mar

 

 

 

 

 

Mar 03

08:30

Initial Claims

02/26

 

400K

400K

391K

 

Mar 03

08:30

Continuing Claims

02/19

 

3800K

3800K

3790K

 

Mar 03

08:30

Productivity-Rev.

Q4

 

2.4%

2.3%

2.6%

 

Mar 03

08:30

Unit Labor Costs - Revised

Q4

 

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.6%

 

Mar 03

10:00

ISM Services

Feb

 

60.0

59.0

59.4

 

Mar 04

08:30

Nonfarm Payrolls

Feb

 

200K

183K

36K

 

Mar 04

08:30

Nonfarm Private Payrolls

Feb

 

220K

195K

50K

 

Mar 04

08:30

Unemployment Rate

Feb

 

9.2%

9.1%

9.0%

 

Mar 04

08:30

Average Workweek

Feb

 

34.3%

34.3

34.2

 

Mar 04

08:30

Hourly Earnings

Feb

 

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

 

Mar 04

10:00

Factory Orders

Jan

 

3.2%

2.1%

0.2%

 



 

Current views, speculations and suggestions.

They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

 

Legend P is Positive N is Negative PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Strong support S1 is good support DS is Daily Support  DR is Daily Resistance R1 is Good Resistance R2 is Strong Resistance S1, S2, E1, R2 change once, weekly, so DS can be below weekly support levels and DR can be above weekly resistance levels as a week of trading unfolds Levels are for the most active futures contract

 

                        Daily Support and Resistance 

               Trend            S2                S1                DS                DR                 R1                 R2

Emini S+P

N

1268

1293

1297

1314

1343

1368

Emini Naz

P

2226

2286

2203

2241

2399

2453

Yen

P

11894

12067

121.75

122.58

1233

12426

EC

P

13386

13563

137.72

139.20

13877

14014

10 Year

P

11703

11800

118.00

118.27

11914

11931

30 Year

P

11804

12002

118.24

120.00

12223

12324

Soybeans

PRD

12.53

1314

13.11

14.38

1417

14.59

Corn

P

6.34

6.78

7.05

7.39

7.55

7.88

Apr Gold

P

1377

1393

1430.50

1449

1422

1439

May Silver

P

30.50

31.92

34.37

36.13

34.53

35.73

May Copper

P

414

430

446

452

456

469

April Crude

P

83.50

90.86

100.12

103.41

104.50

110.77

 

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.