Top Day Recommendations
3.07.11
The headline unemployment number came in at 8.9% on Friday, better than the expected
9.1% while non-farm payrolls at 192K was slightly less than the expected 196K. The
Street had been bracing for a blowout monster number for non-farm payrolls to the
upside. When that failed to materialize and the crude market kept spiking and grinding
then spiking again to the upside without relief, the equity market turned defensive until
short covering lifted values back into he close.
Overnight, crude contains higher without abatement. Silver continues to scream. The one
fly in the ointment is that small specs are very long driving open interest higher while
commercial interests are getting out or even moving to the short side.
Moody’s downgrades Greece three notches. Moody’s questions that the Eurozone
rescue package will be in place after 2013. Irish debt yields spike as well.
Even with Brent crude at painful highs, European consumer confidence continues to be
strong.
Week of March 07 - March 11
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised
From
Mar 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jan $3.5B $3.3B $6.1B
Mar 09 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 03/04 NA NA -6.5%
Mar 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jan 0.5% 1.0% 1.0%
Mar 09 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/05 NA NA -0.364M
Mar 10 08:30 Initial Claims 03/05 370K 382K 368K
Mar 10 08:30 Continuing Claims 02/26 3750K 3750K 3774K
Mar 10 08:30 Trade Balance Jan $41.5B -$41.5B -$40.6B
Mar 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Feb NA -$196B -$220.9B
Mar 11 08:30 Retail Sales Feb 1.4% 1.0% 0.3%
Mar 11 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb 1.0% 0.6% 0.3%
Mar 11 09:55 Mich Sentiment Mar 78.0 76.5 77.5
Mar 11 10:00 Business Inventories Jan 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Current views, speculations and suggestions.
They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical
in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1
R2
Emini N 1277 1298 1309.50 1332.75 1339 1357
S+P
Emini
Naz
P 2269 2314 2343 2377 2391 2422
Yen P 119.22 120.33 120.65 121.95 122.58 123.72
EC P 130.36 137.95 139.45 140.92 140.92 141.97
10 Year P 116.23 118.08 117.28 119.01 119.15 120.11
30 Year P 116.24 118.15 118.14 119.23 120.20 122.02
Soybea
ns
P 13.26 13.70 13.98 14.27 14.41 14.68
Corn P 6.90 7.09 7.20 7.38 7.44 7.605
Apr
Gold
P 1390.6 1411.8 1416.9 1445.4 1443 1462.2
May
Silver
P 32.43 34.05 34.46 36.51 36.50 37.26
May
Copper
P 436.30 446.55 445 453 455.75 462.0
April
Crude
P 93.35 99.13 102.25 107.34 107.93 110.95
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial
investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.