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Australian growth projections missed estimates by half sending its currency to a six week low

Top Day Recommendations

3.07

First peek at the prospective unemployment number this Friday came with today’s release of the ADP private jobs number. ADP says that 216K in new jobs were added while the expectation was for 215K. This failed to wrinkle the market. We also get oil inventories numbers today. Yesterday was a correction based on the idea of contracting world economies. There’s also a certain amount of fear and loathing ahead of the Greek bond swap. Old bonds are being replaced with new bonds and a 75% haircut (loss). Last night, Australian growth projections missed estimates by half sending its currency to a six week low.

Fourth Quarter final non farm productivity comes with higher than expected higher unit labor costs. This should put light pressure on rates.

Week of March 05 - March 09

Date
ET
Release
For
Actual
Briefing.com Briefing.com
Prior
Revised
         
Forecast
Consensus
 
From
Mar
10:00
Factory Orders
Jan
 
-2.3%
-1.9%
1.1%
 
05
   
               
Mar
10:00
ISM Services
Feb
 
57.0
56.0
56.8
 
05
   
               
Mar
07:00
MBA Mortgage Index
03/03
 
NA
NA
-0.3%
 
07
   
               
Mar
08:15
ADP Employment
Feb
 
250K
220K
170K
 
07
Change
   
             
Mar
08:30
Productivity-Rev.
Q4
 
0.8%
0.9%
0.7%
 
07
   
               
Mar
08:30
Unit Labor Costs -
Q4
 
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
 
07
Rev
   
             
Date
ET
Release
For
Actual
Briefing.com Briefing.com
Prior
Revised
         
Forecast
Consensus
 
From
Mar
10:30
Crude Inventories
03/03
 
NA
NA
4.160M
 
07
   
               
Mar
15:00
Consumer Credit
Jan
 
$10.0B
$13.4B
$19.3B
 
07
   
               
Mar
07:30
Challenger Job Cuts
Feb
 
NA
NA
38.9%
 
08
   
               
Mar
08:30
Initial Claims
03/03
 
355K
355K
351K
 
08
   
               
Mar
08:30
Continuing Claims
02/25
 
3450K
3405K
3402K
 
08
   
               
Mar
08:30
Nonfarm Payrolls
Feb
 
250K
207K
243K
 
09
   
               
Mar
08:30
Nonfarm Private
Feb
 
275K
220K
257K
 
09
Payrolls
   
             
Mar
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Feb
 
8.3%
8.3%
8.3%
 
09
   
               
Mar
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Feb
 
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
 
09
   
               
Mar
08:30
Average Workweek
Feb
 
34.5
34.5
34.5
 
09
   
               
Mar
08:30
Trade Balance
Jan
 
-$48.0B
-$48.1B
-
 
09
 
$48.8B
 
             
Mar
10:00
Wholesale Inventories
Jan
 
0.6%
0.6%
1.0%
 
09
   
               

MARKET PLACE

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

 
Trend
WS2
WS1
DS
DR
WR1
WR2
             
               
Mar
D
1342
1355.50
1321.5
1359.00
1379.50
1390.50
   
0
     
ES
           
             
Mar
D
2552.
2598.00
2570.5
2613.00
2669.50
2695.50
   
0
     
Nasdaq
 
50
       
             
Mar
PRD(U)
120.2
121.26
122.91
125.02
124.11
125.97
           
Yen
 
7
         
             
Mar
D
129.9
131.03
130.64
131.87
133.93
135.92
           
EC
 
4
         
             
june 10
U
129.1
130.09
130.31
131.22
131.28
132.21
6
         
Year
           
             
               
june 30
D
137.1
139.12
141.00
142.21
143.24
146.09
           
Year
 
7
         
             
May
U
12.57
12.95
13.21
13.49
13.51
13.705
           
Soybea
             
ns
             
May
U
6.21
6.38
6.44
6.59
6.665
6.78
           
Corn
             
April
D
16.26.
1669.60
1635.3
1700.00
1773.9
1835.4
8
         
Gold
           
             
May
D
31.64
33.21
31.44
33.82
36.96
39.15
           
Silver
             
May
D
373
382
3.63
3.83
397
404
           
Copper
             
April
D
101.5
104.04
103.69
106.52
109.75
113.00
           
Crude
 
8
         
             
               

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.