Top Day Recommendations
3.07
First peek at the prospective unemployment number this Friday came with today’s release of the ADP private jobs number. ADP says that 216K in new jobs were added while the expectation was for 215K. This failed to wrinkle the market. We also get oil inventories numbers today. Yesterday was a correction based on the idea of contracting world economies. There’s also a certain amount of fear and loathing ahead of the Greek bond swap. Old bonds are being replaced with new bonds and a 75% haircut (loss). Last night, Australian growth projections missed estimates by half sending its currency to a six week low.
Fourth Quarter final non farm productivity comes with higher than expected higher unit labor costs. This should put light pressure on rates.
Week of March 05 - March 09
Date
|
ET
|
Release
|
For
|
Actual
|
Briefing.com Briefing.com
|
Prior
|
Revised
|
|
Forecast
|
Consensus
|
From
|
||||||
Mar |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
Jan |
-2.3% |
-1.9% |
1.1% |
||
05 |
||||||||
Mar |
10:00 |
ISM Services |
Feb |
57.0 |
56.0 |
56.8 |
||
05 |
||||||||
Mar |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
03/03 |
NA |
NA |
-0.3% |
||
07 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:15 |
ADP Employment |
Feb |
250K |
220K |
170K |
||
07 |
Change |
|||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Productivity-Rev. |
Q4 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
0.7% |
||
07 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Unit Labor Costs - |
Q4 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
1.2% |
||
07 |
Rev |
|||||||
Date
|
ET
|
Release
|
For
|
Actual
|
Briefing.com Briefing.com
|
Prior
|
Revised
|
|
Forecast
|
Consensus
|
From
|
||||||
Mar |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
03/03 |
NA |
NA |
4.160M |
||
07 |
||||||||
Mar |
15:00 |
Consumer Credit |
Jan |
$10.0B |
$13.4B |
$19.3B |
||
07 |
||||||||
Mar |
07:30 |
Challenger Job Cuts |
Feb |
NA |
NA |
38.9% |
||
08 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
03/03 |
355K |
355K |
351K |
||
08 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
02/25 |
3450K |
3405K |
3402K |
||
08 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
Feb |
250K |
207K |
243K |
||
09 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Private |
Feb |
275K |
220K |
257K |
||
09 |
Payrolls |
|||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
Feb |
8.3% |
8.3% |
8.3% |
||
09 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Hourly Earnings |
Feb |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
||
09 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Average Workweek |
Feb |
34.5 |
34.5 |
34.5 |
||
09 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Trade Balance |
Jan |
-$48.0B |
-$48.1B |
- |
||
09 |
$48.8B |
|||||||
Mar |
10:00 |
Wholesale Inventories |
Jan |
0.6% |
0.6% |
1.0% |
||
09 |
||||||||
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend
|
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Mar
|
D
|
1342
|
1355.50 |
1321.5
|
1359.00 |
1379.50 |
1390.50 |
0
|
|||||||
ES
|
|||||||
Mar
|
D
|
2552.
|
2598.00 |
2570.5
|
2613.00 |
2669.50 |
2695.50 |
0
|
|||||||
Nasdaq
|
50 |
||||||
Mar
|
PRD(U)
|
120.2
|
121.26 |
122.91 |
125.02 |
124.11 |
125.97 |
Yen
|
7
|
||||||
Mar
|
D
|
129.9
|
131.03 |
130.64 |
131.87 |
133.93 |
135.92 |
EC
|
4
|
||||||
june 10
|
U
|
129.1
|
130.09 |
130.31
|
131.22 |
131.28 |
132.21 |
6
|
|||||||
Year
|
|||||||
june 30
|
D
|
137.1 |
139.12 |
141.00 |
142.21 |
143.24 |
146.09 |
Year
|
7 |
||||||
May
|
U
|
12.57
|
12.95 |
13.21 |
13.49 |
13.51 |
13.705 |
Soybea
|
|||||||
ns
|
|||||||
May
|
U
|
6.21 |
6.38 |
6.44 |
6.59 |
6.665 |
6.78 |
Corn
|
|||||||
April
|
D
|
16.26.
|
1669.60 |
1635.3 |
1700.00 |
1773.9 |
1835.4 |
8
|
|||||||
Gold
|
|||||||
May
|
D
|
31.64 |
33.21 |
31.44 |
33.82 |
36.96 |
39.15 |
Silver
|
|||||||
May
|
D
|
373 |
382 |
3.63
|
3.83 |
397 |
404 |
Copper
|
|||||||
April
|
D
|
101.5 |
104.04 |
103.69
|
106.52 |
109.75 |
113.00 |
Crude
|
8 |
||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.