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EC under pressure as the market is focused on Spanish and Portuguese debt concerns

Top Day Recommendations

3.08.11

No eco releases today. Axel Weber of the ECB says that they

have started a normalization of rates and that current price

pressures may be understated. Also, he doesn’t want “to

correct” market expectations for rate hikes. These are currency

friendly comments but the EC today is under pressure as the

market is focused on Spanish and Portuguese debt concerns

spilling into other economies. The yield on Greek debt is at the

highest level since the intro of the Euro in 99. German factory

orders surge. Canadian housing starts strong. Stocks continue to

trade with all the conviction of a one day theme. Who would

have thought that the US would ever be importing inflation

from China?

Week of March 07 - March 11

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Mar 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jan $3.5B $3.3B $6.1B

Mar 09 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 03/04 NA NA -6.5%

Mar 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jan 0.5% 1.0% 1.0%

Mar 09 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/05 NA NA -0.364M

Mar 10 08:30 Initial Claims 03/05 370K 382K 368K

Mar 10 08:30 Continuing Claims 02/26 3750K 3750K 3774K

Mar 10 08:30 Trade Balance Jan $41.5B -$41.5B -$40.6B

Mar 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Feb NA -$196B -$220.9B

Mar 11 08:30 Retail Sales Feb 1.4% 1.0% 0.3%

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Mar 11 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb 1.0% 0.6% 0.3%

Mar 11 09:55 Mich Sentiment Mar 78.0 76.5 77.5

Mar 11 10:00 Business Inventories Jan 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%

Current views, speculations and suggestions.

They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical

in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend P is Positive N is Negative PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is strong support

S1 is good support DS is Daily Support DR is Daily Resistance R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Emini S+P N 1277 1298 1298.75 1332.75 1339 1357

Emini Naz PR D 2269 2314 229.75 2363.75 2391 2422

Yen P 119.22 120.33 120.96 121.91 122.58 123.72

EC P 130.36 137.95 139.05 140.16 140.92 141.97

10 Year P 116.23 118.08 118.07 118.29 119.15 120.11

30 Year P 116.24 118.15 118.18 119.21 120.20 122.02

Soybeans P 13.26 13.70 13.65 14.14 14.41 14.68

Corn PR D 6.90 7.09 7.07 7.305 7.44 7.605

Apr Gold P 1390.6 1411.8 1426.6 1440.40 1443 1462.2

May Silver P 32.43 34.05 35.39 36.56 36.50 37.26

May Copper N 436.30 446.55 424.85 446.10 455.75 462.0

April Crude P 93.35 99.13 102.84 106.84 107.93 110.95

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial

investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.