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The ECB and BOE leave rates unchanged

Top Day Recommendations

3.08

Subscriptions to the Greek debt swap have reached 60%, a favorable number for the market as it takes away the risk of an immanent disorderly default. At the same time, German industrial production has come in higher than forecast. The ECB and BOE leave rates unchanged. The big number looms tomorrow and it’s rumored to be a blowout to the upside. This could be the trigger for an intraday reversal, first up, then down, higher early, lower later.

Stock index futures are rolling to June today. At least they are cash settled so no delivery problems.

Week of March 05 - March 09

Date
ET
Release
For
Actual
Briefing.com Briefing.com
Prior
Revised
         
Forecast
Consensus
 
From
Mar
10:00
Factory Orders
Jan
 
-2.3%
-1.9%
1.1%
 
05
   
               
Mar
10:00
ISM Services
Feb
 
57.0
56.0
56.8
 
05
   
               
Mar
07:00
MBA Mortgage Index
03/03
 
NA
NA
-0.3%
 
07
   
               
Mar
08:15
ADP Employment
Feb
 
250K
220K
170K
 
07
Change
   
             
Mar
08:30
Productivity-Rev.
Q4
 
0.8%
0.9%
0.7%
 
07
   
               
Mar
08:30
Unit Labor Costs -
Q4
 
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
 
07
Rev
   
             
Mar
10:30
Crude Inventories
03/03
 
NA
NA
4.160M
 
07
   
               
Mar
15:00
Consumer Credit
Jan
 
$10.0B
$13.4B
$19.3B
 
07
   
               
Mar
07:30
Challenger Job Cuts
Feb
 
NA
NA
38.9%
 
08
   
               
Mar
08:30
Initial Claims
03/03
 
355K
355K
351K
 
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
08                
Mar 08:30 Continuing Claims 02/25   3450K 3405K 3402K  
08    
               
Mar 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Feb   250K 207K 243K  
09    
               
Mar 08:30 Nonfarm Private Feb   275K 220K 257K  
09 Payrolls    
             
Mar 08:30 Unemployment Rate Feb   8.3% 8.3% 8.3%  
09    
               
Mar 08:30 Hourly Earnings Feb   0.2% 0.2% 0.2%  
09    
               
Mar 08:30 Average Workweek Feb   34.5 34.5 34.5  
09    
               
Mar 08:30 Trade Balance Jan   -$48.0B -$48.1B -  
09   $48.8B  
             
Mar 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jan   0.6% 0.6% 1.0%  
09    
               

MARKET PLACE

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

   
Daily Support and Resistance
 
               
 
Trend
WS2
WS1
DS
DR
WR1
WR2
             
               
Mar
D
1342
1355.50
1344.5
1362
1379.50
1390.50
   
0
     
ES
           
             
Mar
D
2552.
2598.00
2594
2363
2669.50
2695.50
           
Nasdaq
 
50
         
             
Mar
D
120.2
121.26
122.46
123.79
124.11
125.97
           
Yen
 
7
         
             
Mar
D
129.9
131.03
131.08
132.05
133.93
135.92
           
EC
 
4
         
             
june 10
U
129.1
130.09
130.13
131.12
131.28
132.21
6
         
Year
           
             
               
june 30
D
137.1
139.12
140.27
141.30
143.24
146.09
7
         
Year
           
             
May
U
12.57
12.95
13.20
13.35
13.51
13.705
           
Soybea
             
ns
             
May PRD(D) 6.21 6.38 6.255 6.505 6.665 6.78
           
Corn              
April D 16.26. 1669.60 1674 1698 1773.9 1835.4
           
Gold   8          
             
May D 31.64 33.21 33.02 34.17 36.96 39.15
           
Silver              
May D 373 382 372 382 397 404
           
Copper              
April D 101.5 104.04 104.82 107.88 109.75 113.00
           
Crude   8          
             
               

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.