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China posts a trade deficit as it imported more than exported

Top Day Recommendations

3.10.11

W

eek of March 07 - March 11

Last night, China’s economy belched a puff of smoke and actually posted a trade deficit. This is

being explained by lunar year distortions. But the reality remains China actually imported more

than it exported. What does this mean? Well, probably many things but one thing’s probably for

sure, it’s not good for copper. Additionally, the Bank of England left rates unchanged and this

disappointed some who were hoping that monetary flows would be directed to the Pound with

the prospect of higher rates. Laast night saw more long commodity liquidation. Over the next

several sessions the dollar should regain some traction on risk aversion.

This is rollover day for stock index futures. June is now front month forward.

Moody’s gave a further downgrade to Spain’s debt rating. Rallies in the EC will be well met

with resistance. German exports come in lower than expected.

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Mar 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jan $3.5B $3.3B $6.1B

Mar 09 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 03/04 NA NA -6.5%

Mar 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jan 0.5% 1.0% 1.0%

Mar 09 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/05 NA NA -0.364M

Mar 10 08:30 Initial Claims 03/05 370K 382K 368K

Mar 10 08:30 Continuing Claims 02/26 3750K 3750K 3774K

Mar 10 08:30 Trade Balance Jan $41.5B -$41.5B -$40.6B

Mar 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Feb NA -$196B -$220.9B

Mar 11 08:30 Retail Sales Feb 1.4% 1.0% 0.3%

Mar 11 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb 1.0% 0.6% 0.3%

Mar 11 09:55 Mich Sentiment Mar 78.0 76.5 77.5

Mar 11 10:00 Business Inventories Jan 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%

Current views, speculations and suggestions.

They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical

in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend P is Positive  N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Emini S+P N 1277 1298 1301 1321 1339 1357

Emini Naz P 2269 2314 2287.50 2331 2391 2422

Yen N 119.22 120.33 120.36 121.16 122.58 123.72

EC N 130.36 137.95 138.07 139.44 140.92 141.97

10 Year P 116.23 118.08 118.13 119.08 119.15 120.11

30 Year P 116.24 118.15 118.18 119.28 120.20 122.02

Soybeans N 13.26 13.70 13.234 13.72 14.41 14.68

Corn N 6.90 7.09 6.81 7.11 7.44 7.605

Apr Gold N 1390.6 1411.8 1415.6 1436.5 1443 1462.2

May Silver P 32.43 34.05 35.24 36.45 36.50 37.26

May Copper N 436.30 446.55 406 433 455.75 462.0

April Crude P 93.35 99.13 102.71 105.56 107.93 110.95

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial

investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.