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Yesterday’s Dow range was the tightest since last April 4th

Top Day Recommendations

3.13

We first get retail sales which should surprise to the upside and then the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting setting short term rates and the accompanying communiqué at 2:15. The market is probably leery of the statement if you can remember all the way back to the last testimony of Fed Chairman Bernanke up on the when he failed to mention quantitative easing and gold fell by $100.

Yen down 66 as BOJ says it will continue on a course of “strong easing.”

Maybe the market was just making time between Friday’s Unemployment Report and today’s FOMC meeting but the reality was that yesterday’s Dow range was the tightest since last April 4th. Coiling for a bigger consequence?

Week of March 12 - March 16

Date
ET
Release
For
Actual
Briefing.com Briefing.com
Prior
Revised
         
Forecast
Consensus
 
From
Mar
14:00
Treasury Budget
Feb
 
-$229.0B
-$229.0B
-
 
12
 
$222.5B
 
             
Mar
08:30
Retail Sales
Feb
 
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
 
13
   
               
Mar
08:30
Retail Sales ex-auto
Feb
 
1.2%
0.7%
0.7%
 
13
   
               
Mar
10:00
Business Inventories
Jan
 
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
 
13
   
               
Mar
14:15
FOMC Rate Decision
Mar
 
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
 
13
   
               
Date
ET
Release
For
Actual
Briefing.com Briefing.com
Prior
Revised
         
Forecast
Consensus
 
From
Mar
07:00
MBA Mortgage Index
03/10
 
NA
NA
-1.2%
 
14
   
               
Mar
08:30
Current Account
Q4
 
-$114.0B
-$113.8B
-
 
14
Balance
 
$110.3B
 
           
Mar
08:30
Export Prices ex-ag.
Feb
 
NA
NA
0.0%
 
14
   
               
Mar
08:30
Import Prices ex-oil
Feb
 
NA
NA
0.1%
 
14
   
               
Mar
10:30
Crude Inventories
03/10
 
NA
NA
0.832M
 
14
   
               
Mar
08:30
Initial Claims
03/10
 
360K
358K
362K
 
15
   
               
Mar
08:30
Continuing Claims
03/03
 
3415K
3415K
3416K
 
15
   
               
Mar
08:30
Empire
Mar
 
15.0
15.0
19.5
 
15
Manufacturing
   
             
Mar
08:30
PPI
Feb
 
0.4%
0.5%
0.1%
 
15
   
               
Mar
08:30
Core PPI
Feb
 
0.1%
0.2%
0.4%
 
15
   
               
Mar
09:00
Net Long-Term TIC
Jan
 
NA
NA
$17.9B
 
15
Flows
   
             
Mar
10:00
Philadelphia Fed
Mar
 
15.0
12.5
10.2
 
15
   
               
Mar
08:30
CPI
Feb
 
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
 
16
   
               
Mar
08:30
Core CPI
Feb
 
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
 
16
   
               
Mar
09:15
Industrial Production
Feb
 
0.2%
0.5%
0.0%
 
16
   
               
Mar
09:15
Capacity Utilization
Feb
 
78.6%
78.8%
78.5%
 
16
   
               
Mar
09:55
Mich Sentiment
Mar
 
76.5
76.0
75.3
 
16
   
               

MARKET PLACE

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

 
Trend
WS2
WS1
DS
DR
WR1
WR2
             
               
Mar
U
1323.
1345.25
1362.5
1371.50
1379
1391
   
0
     
ES
 
50
       
             
Mar
U
25550
2596.50
2636
2659
2669.00
2695
           
Nasdaq
             
Mar
D
118.9
120.06
120.88
122.14
123.17
125.19
5
         
Yen
           
             
Mar
D
129.6
130.38
130.99
132.09
132.34
133.60
9
         
EC
           
             
june 10
D
129.3
130.10
130.13
131.00
131.10
131.29
           
Year
 
0
         
             
               
june 30
D
138.1
139.10
139.30
140.31
141.26
143.10
           
Year
 
0
         
             
May
U
12.95
13.16
13.305
13.45
13.57
13.79
           
Soybea
             
ns
             
May
D
6.13
6.29
6.47
6.74
6.62
6.80
           
Corn
             
April
U
1643.
1678.5
1689
1713
1733.1
1752.8
           
Gold
 
6
         
             
May
U
31.46
32.90
33.05
34.08
35.36
36.38
           
Silver
             
May
U
361
373
381
388
395
405
           
Copper
             
April
U
102.8
105.11
105.29.
107.47
109.86
110.50
0
         
Crude
           
             
               

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.