Free $25 Commodity Investor Kit

Includes : Charts, Market Information, Informative News Articles, Market Alerts, Exchange Brochures, Research, Managed Futures Information, and much more!!

CONTACT INFORMATION

You can contact us by sending mail below or you can call toll free:

Phone: 800.840.5617
Phone: 312.920.0212
Fax: 855.994.4111


ADDRESS

United Futures Trading Company, Inc.
9247 Broadway
Suite EE
Merrillville, IN 46410

Resource Pages | Friend Pages

Gold looks as though it could trade as low as 1534.00 during this cycle

WEEKLY FUTURES REPORT

Filed at 8:32 am Thursday 3.15

3.14.12

 
Last
Last Week (03.07.12)
Apr Crude
105.56
106.19
Apr Heat
326.00
322.36
Apr Gas (Blended)
334.48
328.92

Oil came under selling pressure as inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, the terminus for benchmark West Texas Intermediate, rose to their highest levels in nine months. Another negative for the complex occurred when Saudi Arabia assured the world market that they would do everything in their power to make up for any shortfall in supply as a result of Iranian disruption of supplies.

The US Energy Department stated that supplies in Cushing rose by 7%. Prices have been higher this year as the US and the European Union have increased sanctions against Iran to persuade that country from further development of their nuclear program. The market has been more concerned with building in an insurance premium rather than focusing on price as a measure of the tension between supply and demand.

Crude was lower by 1.2% on the session. Barrels were trading at their lowest levels since March 6th. Oil is still up 6.7% for the year, chiefly as a reflection of better economic condition in the US and a positive equity market. Crude stocks for the latest reporting week were higher by 1.75 million barrels to 347.5 million barrels, a six month high. In counterbalance, distillate stocks were lower by 4.38 million barrels to 134.8 million barrels while gas stocks fell by 1.41 million barrels to 228.1 million barrels. Both declines were greater than previous forecasts. Crude stocks to be refined keep increasing but refined products in terms of supply continue to lag. Consumption was higher by 2.2 % to 18.6 million barrels a day. Refinery runs declined. OPEC production continued to increase for the fifth consecutive month to its highest level in three years. Dollar strength was also a price negative for crude. The threat of supply disruptions in the Middle East has temporarily eased.

The charts reflect the fundamentals of the various components accurately. Crude has found the mid Bollinger band and is entering oversold conditions as measured by stochastics. At the same time, gasoline continues to show strength and has yet to show topping action.

Heating oil is trading sideways, failing to make a new high in 13 sessions. The market continues to hold above the mid Bollinger band while stochastics will roll over with further downside action.

 
Support
Resistance
Apr Crude
103.50
108.25
Apr Heat
322.00
331.00
Apr Gas
330.00
339.70

**********************************************************

METALS
   
 
Last
Last Week
Apr Gold
1644.00
1685.20
May Silver
32.16
33.46
April Platinum
1676.00
1632.10

Gold sold off sharply in the wake of t the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday. Although the Federal Reserve left short term rates unchanged and said that rates would remain low through the end of 2014, the Fed at the same time mentioned a gradual improvement in the US unemployment picture and also mentioned that there are signs of US economic strength. This sentiment helped to strengthen the dollar against its major trading counterparts. A stronger dollar is a negative for gold as it takes fewer dollars to buy that same ounce of gold. Another price negative for gold was the results of stress tests run against US banks. 14 pout of 19 passed the test, showing the Fed that they would be adequately capitalized even of the stock market lost 50% of its value, unemployment increased to 13% and Europe went into a steep recession. The results of the test diminished the argument for holding gold as a hedge against a catastrophic credit event. Another negative for gold was the successful Greek bond swap which created a technical though orderly default in the Greek bond market.

At the same time, some market watchers are calling for gold to enjoy a 12th consecutive yearly gain based on individual hoarding and central bank buying. Interest rates should remain low which is a gold market positive. Interest rates had been backing up recently on better signs of US economic growth and disinvestment as a hedge against a disorderly Greek bond market default.

On a bigger time scale, gold looks as though it could trade as low as 1534.00 during this cycle. The market continues to ride the lower Bollinger band, creating a channel where future highs will be lower than previous highs and future lows will be lower than previous lows.

 
Support
Resistance
Apr Gold
1605
1701
May Silver
30.58
32.47
April Plat 1637 1700

******************************************

SOFTS
   
 
Last
Last Week
May Coffee
183.50
188.40
May Sugar
24.44
23.92

Coffee continues to be unable to purchase price traction. Better macro considerations have been offset by a stronger dollar. Commodity sector weakness has also expressed itself as lower prices for coffee. There is the hope that roasters will be buyers with prices at 17 month lows. The potential for a massive Brazilian crop contains to cap gains, however.

The chart has yet to show a bottoming formation.

End user buying in sugar is starting to show signs of improvement. Brazil may use more of its cane crop for ethanol production. The chart is at least showing the prospect of range trading.

   
Support
Resistance
May Coffee
180.00
191.00
May Sugar
23.25
25.00
********************** **********************
   
Last
Last Week
May Soybeans
13.502
13.266
May
Corn
6.586
6.386
May
Wheat
6.436
6.392

Soybeans continue to be demand driven to higher valuations. Chinese demand is expected to help support prices at these 9 month highs. China will probably shift [planting acreage away from soybeans to corn, a price positive. US dollar strength could provide a headwind for exports. Delays in Argentinian shipping could move more business to the US product. Funds are on the buy side and are willing to buy breaks. Nothing in the chart suggests the break of the uptrend channel.

Improving weather and crop conditions suggests that wheat remains nothing more than a range trade. With above normal temperatures, winter wheat is off to a great start. Dryness in Europe and a lower than expected Ukrainian crop is a positive. This is offset by Indian production.

The corn chart looks very constructive even as the recent rally has ssparked more producer selling. Temperatures in the key growing areas in the Midwest US are 20 to 25 degress above normal. This means a fast start to the corn planting season. Early plantings create greater yields. Funds are frimly psoitoned on the buy side.

 
Support
Resistance
May Beans
13.38
13.75
May Corn
6.48
6.70
May Wheat
6.34
6.55
Chuck Kespert from NY/NY
 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE

SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.