Top Day Recommendations
3.16
A noisy Friday with Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, Indy Production and Cap Utilization at 9:15 and finally the U of Michigan consumer sentiment index at 9:55. Will the “data matter”? Tough to say to a certitude but there are other certainties to point to such as the low volume levels which suggests that we haven’t seen the interim top in equtities. Extract high frequency trading and the volume figures look that much more anemic. The low volume means that the market is still underinvested and that the shorts have yet to capitulate. Interest rates continue to normalize with the nob (notes against bonds/10 versus 30) trading at 720 last night. This was at 1400 back in December (when Europe was threatening to fall apart) but as the fear factor came out of the market this spread narrowed. If you go back to February of last year, this spread was actually negative, yes below zero before going to 1500 by September, that’s $15,000 on one single spread. Memorable.
Week of March 12 - March 16
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Mar | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | Feb | -$229.0B | -$229.0B | - | ||
| 12 | $222.5B | |||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Retail Sales | Feb | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Feb | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Mar | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Jan | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Mar | 14:15 | FOMC Rate Decision | Mar | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Mar | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 03/10 | NA | NA | -1.2% | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Current Account | Q4 | -$114.0B | -$113.8B | - | ||
| 14 | Balance | $110.3B | ||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Feb | NA | NA | 0.0% | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Feb | NA | NA | 0.1% | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Mar | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 03/10 | NA | NA | 0.832M | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 03/10 | 360K | 358K | 362K | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 03/03 | 3415K | 3415K | 3416K | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Empire | Mar | 15.0 | 15.0 | 19.5 | ||
| 15 | Manufacturing | |||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | PPI | Feb | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Core PPI | Feb | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Mar | 09:00 | Net Long-Term TIC | Jan | NA | NA | $17.9B | ||
| 15 | Flows | |||||||
| Mar | 10:00 | Philadelphia Fed | Mar | 15.0 | 12.5 | 10.2 | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | CPI | Feb | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Core CPI | Feb | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Mar | 09:15 | Industrial Production | Feb | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Mar | 09:15 | Capacity Utilization | Feb | 78.6% | 78.8% | 78.5% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Mar | 09:55 | Mich Sentiment | Mar | 76.5 | 76.0 | 75.3 | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Mar | U | 1323. | 1345.25 | 1388 | 1405 | 1379 | 1391 |
| 50 | |||||||
| ES | |||||||
| Mar | U | 25550 | 2596.50 | 2700 | 2728 | 2669.00 | 2695 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Mar | D | 118.9 | 120.06 | 119.06 | 121.08 | 123.17 | 125.19 |
| Yen | 5 | ||||||
| Mar | D | 129.6 | 130.38 | 130.27 | 131.89 | 132.34 | 133.60 |
| EC | 9 | ||||||
| june 10 | D | 129.3 | 130.10 | 127.27 | 129.06 | 131.10 | 131.29 |
| 0 | |||||||
| Year | |||||||
| june 30 | D | 138.1 | 139.10 | 134.30 | 137.05 | 141.26 | 143.10 |
| 0 | |||||||
| Year | |||||||
| May | U | 12.95 | 13.16 | 13.57 | 13.75 | 13.57 | 13.79 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| May | U | 6.13 | 6.29 | 6.60 | 6.81 | 6.62 | 6.80 |
| Corn | |||||||
| April | D | 1643. | 1678.5 | 1641 | 1685 | 1733.1 | 1752.8 |
| 6 | |||||||
| Gold | |||||||
| May | D | 31.46 | 32.90 | 32.14 | 33..48 | 35.36 | 36.38 |
| Silver | |||||||
| May | U | 361 | 373 | 384 | 392 | 395 | 405 |
| Copper | |||||||
| April | PRD(D) | 102.8 | 105.11 | 103.86 | 106.26 | 109.86 | 110.50 |
| Crude | 0 | ||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.