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CONTACT INFORMATION

You can contact us by sending mail below or you can call toll free:

Phone: 800.840.5617
Phone: 312.920.0212
Fax: 855.994.4111


ADDRESS

United Futures Trading Company, Inc.
9247 Broadway
Suite EE
Merrillville, IN 46410

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A noisy Friday with Consumer Price Index

Top Day Recommendations

3.16

A noisy Friday with Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, Indy Production and Cap Utilization at 9:15 and finally the U of Michigan consumer sentiment index at 9:55. Will the “data matter”? Tough to say to a certitude but there are other certainties to point to such as the low volume levels which suggests that we haven’t seen the interim top in equtities. Extract high frequency trading and the volume figures look that much more anemic. The low volume means that the market is still underinvested and that the shorts have yet to capitulate. Interest rates continue to normalize with the nob (notes against bonds/10 versus 30) trading at 720 last night. This was at 1400 back in December (when Europe was threatening to fall apart) but as the fear factor came out of the market this spread narrowed. If you go back to February of last year, this spread was actually negative, yes below zero before going to 1500 by September, that’s $15,000 on one single spread. Memorable.

Week of March 12 - March 16

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Mar 14:00 Treasury Budget Feb   -$229.0B -$229.0B -  
12   $222.5B  
             
Mar 08:30 Retail Sales Feb   1.8% 1.0% 0.4%  
13    
               
Mar 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb   1.2% 0.7% 0.7%  
13    
               
Mar 10:00 Business Inventories Jan   0.6% 0.6% 0.4%  
13    
               
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Mar 14:15 FOMC Rate Decision Mar   0.25% 0.25% 0.25%  
13    
               
Mar 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 03/10   NA NA -1.2%  
14    
               
Mar 08:30 Current Account Q4   -$114.0B -$113.8B -  
14 Balance   $110.3B  
           
Mar 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Feb   NA NA 0.0%  
14    
               
Mar 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Feb   NA NA 0.1%  
14    
               
Mar 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/10   NA NA 0.832M  
14    
               
Mar 08:30 Initial Claims 03/10   360K 358K 362K  
15    
               
Mar 08:30 Continuing Claims 03/03   3415K 3415K 3416K  
15    
               
Mar 08:30 Empire Mar   15.0 15.0 19.5  
15 Manufacturing    
             
Mar 08:30 PPI Feb   0.4% 0.5% 0.1%  
15    
               
Mar 08:30 Core PPI Feb   0.1% 0.2% 0.4%  
15    
               
Mar 09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Jan   NA NA $17.9B  
15 Flows    
             
Mar 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Mar   15.0 12.5 10.2  
15    
               
Mar 08:30 CPI Feb   0.3% 0.4% 0.2%  
16    
               
Mar 08:30 Core CPI Feb   0.2% 0.2% 0.2%  
16    
               
Mar 09:15 Industrial Production Feb   0.2% 0.5% 0.0%  
16    
               
Mar 09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb   78.6% 78.8% 78.5%  
16    
               
Mar 09:55 Mich Sentiment Mar   76.5 76.0 75.3  
16    
               

MARKET PLACE

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

  Trend WS2 WS1 DS DR WR1 WR2
             
               
Mar U 1323. 1345.25 1388 1405 1379 1391
50          
ES            
             
Mar U 25550 2596.50 2700 2728 2669.00 2695
           
Nasdaq              
Mar D 118.9 120.06 119.06 121.08 123.17 125.19
           
Yen   5          
             
Mar D 129.6 130.38 130.27 131.89 132.34 133.60
           
EC   9          
             
june 10 D 129.3 130.10 127.27 129.06 131.10 131.29
0          
Year            
             
               
june 30 D 138.1 139.10 134.30 137.05 141.26 143.10
0          
Year            
             
May U 12.95 13.16 13.57 13.75 13.57 13.79
           
Soybea              
ns              
May U 6.13 6.29 6.60 6.81 6.62 6.80
           
Corn              
April D 1643. 1678.5 1641 1685 1733.1 1752.8
6          
Gold            
             
May D 31.46 32.90 32.14 33..48 35.36 36.38
           
Silver              
May U 361 373 384 392 395 405
           
Copper              
April PRD(D) 102.8 105.11 103.86 106.26 109.86 110.50
           
Crude   0          
             
               

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.