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Oil trades as high as 104.54

Top Day Recommendations

3.18.11

Another day of high vol. Oil trades a s high as 104.54 before a no fly zone is adopted by

the UN and Libya seeks a cease fire sending crude negative on the day. This lifts

equities. Then there’s the coordinated G-7 intervention in the Yen sending futures 400

lower. This drops the Yen and lifts the EC on spreads. Grains have all come back to life.

Risk is back on. On the other hand, the news from Japan continues to get worse. I think

everyone needs a weekend in a movie theater at this point. Volatility is great but the

downside is that you can’t come up with a trading thesis and hold onto it believing in its

veracity. What you can do is decrease position size and tighten stops; hopefully you can

catch a profitable wave while keeping losses at nuisance level. What you can’t do is

dollar cost average in the belief that the trend you have perceived will reassert itself and

normal trading range support and resistance levels will hold.

This Week's CalendarDate

ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Mar 15 08:30 Empire Manufacturing Mar 17.0 17.0 15.43

Mar 15 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Feb NA NA 0.9%

Mar 15 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Feb NA NA 0.8%

Mar 15 09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jan NA NA $65.9B

Mar 15 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index Mar 16 17 16

Mar 15 14:15 FOMC Rate Decision Mar 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

Mar 16 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 03/11 NA NA +15.5%

Mar 16 08:30 Housing Starts Feb 545K 570K 596K

Mar 16 08:30 Building Permits Feb 565K 573K 562K

Mar 16 08:30 PPI Feb 0.5% 0.6% 0.8%

Mar 16 08:30 Core PPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%

Mar 16 08:30 Current Account Balance Q4 -$110.0B -$110.0B -$127.2B

Mar 16 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/12 NA NA 2.52M

Mar 17 08:30 Initial Claims 03/12 380K 387K 397K

Mar 17 08:30 Continuing Claims 03/05 3750K 3750K 3771K

Mar 17 08:30 CPI Feb 0.3% 0.4% 0.4%

Mar 17 08:30 Core CPI Feb 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%

ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Mar 17 09:15 Industrial Production Feb 0.5% 0.6% -0.1%

Mar 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb 76.5% 76.5% 76.10%

Mar 17 10:00 Leading Indicators Feb 1.0% 0.9% 0.1%

Mar 17 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Mar 25.0 28.0 35.9

Current views, speculations and suggestions.

They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical

in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

P is Positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1R2

EminiS+PN 1253.5 1292.25 1248.50 1281.75 1326 1351

EminiNazN 2201.75 2285.5 2192 2252 2263.75 2424.75

Yen P 119.15 120.68 124.83 128.93 123.17 124.13

EC P 135.91 137.30 138.80 140.66 140.11 141.53

10 Year P 117.11 118.16 119.25 121.20 119.29 121.07

30 Year P 117.04 118.23 120.13 122.23 121.16 122.22

Soybeans PRD 12.38 12.86 12.98 13.59 14.00 14.66

Corn N 6.026 6.59 6.26 6.66 7.14 7.64

Apr Gold PRD 1390.6 1411.8 13292 1410.80 1447.6 1462.2

May Silver P 32.86 34.37 33.03 36.08 37.07 38.42

May Copper PRD 384.60 403.50 420.40 442.50 446.70 470.70

April Crude PRD 94.53 97.56 99.02 104.36 105.29 109.98

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial

investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.