Top Day Recommendations
3.18.11
Another day of high vol. Oil trades a s high as 104.54 before a no fly zone is adopted by
the UN and Libya seeks a cease fire sending crude negative on the day. This lifts
equities. Then there’s the coordinated G-7 intervention in the Yen sending futures 400
lower. This drops the Yen and lifts the EC on spreads. Grains have all come back to life.
Risk is back on. On the other hand, the news from Japan continues to get worse. I think
everyone needs a weekend in a movie theater at this point. Volatility is great but the
downside is that you can’t come up with a trading thesis and hold onto it believing in its
veracity. What you can do is decrease position size and tighten stops; hopefully you can
catch a profitable wave while keeping losses at nuisance level. What you can’t do is
dollar cost average in the belief that the trend you have perceived will reassert itself and
normal trading range support and resistance levels will hold.
This Week's CalendarDate
ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised
From
Mar 15 08:30 Empire Manufacturing Mar 17.0 17.0 15.43
Mar 15 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Feb NA NA 0.9%
Mar 15 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Feb NA NA 0.8%
Mar 15 09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jan NA NA $65.9B
Mar 15 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index Mar 16 17 16
Mar 15 14:15 FOMC Rate Decision Mar 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
Mar 16 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 03/11 NA NA +15.5%
Mar 16 08:30 Housing Starts Feb 545K 570K 596K
Mar 16 08:30 Building Permits Feb 565K 573K 562K
Mar 16 08:30 PPI Feb 0.5% 0.6% 0.8%
Mar 16 08:30 Core PPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
Mar 16 08:30 Current Account Balance Q4 -$110.0B -$110.0B -$127.2B
Mar 16 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/12 NA NA 2.52M
Mar 17 08:30 Initial Claims 03/12 380K 387K 397K
Mar 17 08:30 Continuing Claims 03/05 3750K 3750K 3771K
Mar 17 08:30 CPI Feb 0.3% 0.4% 0.4%
Mar 17 08:30 Core CPI Feb 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised
From
Mar 17 09:15 Industrial Production Feb 0.5% 0.6% -0.1%
Mar 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb 76.5% 76.5% 76.10%
Mar 17 10:00 Leading Indicators Feb 1.0% 0.9% 0.1%
Mar 17 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Mar 25.0 28.0 35.9
Current views, speculations and suggestions.
They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical
in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1R2
EminiS+PN 1253.5 1292.25 1248.50 1281.75 1326 1351
EminiNazN 2201.75 2285.5 2192 2252 2263.75 2424.75
Yen P 119.15 120.68 124.83 128.93 123.17 124.13
EC P 135.91 137.30 138.80 140.66 140.11 141.53
10 Year P 117.11 118.16 119.25 121.20 119.29 121.07
30 Year P 117.04 118.23 120.13 122.23 121.16 122.22
Soybeans PRD 12.38 12.86 12.98 13.59 14.00 14.66
Corn N 6.026 6.59 6.26 6.66 7.14 7.64
Apr Gold PRD 1390.6 1411.8 13292 1410.80 1447.6 1462.2
May Silver P 32.86 34.37 33.03 36.08 37.07 38.42
May Copper PRD 384.60 403.50 420.40 442.50 446.70 470.70
April Crude PRD 94.53 97.56 99.02 104.36 105.29 109.98
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial
investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.