Top Day Recommendations
3.20
Stocks continue to back away from multi month highs. The market has been up 12% in 2012 thus far and 28% from last year’s lows, lifted by liquidity injections and encouraged by navigation around the Greek debt crisis. Another negative inflection was news that China raised fuel prices by the most in two years. This is the second price increase in less than six weeks. The yield on the 10 year note increased 9 trading sessions in a row; a tenth consecutive yield increase would have matched a run last seen in April 1974 during the oil embargo.
Week of March 19 - March 23
Date
|
ET
|
Release
|
For
|
Actual
|
Briefing.com Briefing.com
|
Prior
|
Revised
|
|
Forecast
|
Consensus
|
From
|
||||||
Mar |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing |
Mar |
31 |
31 |
29 |
||
19 |
Market Index |
|||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Housing Starts |
Feb |
715K |
705K |
699K |
||
20 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Building Permits |
Feb |
680K |
695K |
676K |
||
20 |
||||||||
Mar |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
03/17 |
NA |
NA |
-2.4% |
||
21 |
||||||||
Mar |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales |
Feb |
4.45M |
4.61M |
4.57M |
||
21 |
||||||||
Mar |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
03/17 |
NA |
NA |
1.750M |
||
21 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
03/17 |
355K |
355K |
351K |
||
22 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
03/10 |
3400K |
3363K |
3343K |
||
22 |
||||||||
Date
|
ET
|
Release
|
For
|
Actual
|
Briefing.com Briefing.com
|
Prior
|
Revised
|
|
Forecast
|
Consensus
|
From
|
||||||
Mar |
10:00 |
FHFA Housing Price |
Jan |
NA |
NA |
0.7% |
||
22 |
Index |
|||||||
Mar |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators |
Feb |
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.4% |
||
22 |
||||||||
Mar |
10:00 |
New Home Sales |
Feb |
320K |
321K |
321K |
||
23
|
||||||||
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
|
|||||||
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
|
|||||||
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
|
|||||||
Levels are for the most active futures contract
|
|||||||
Daily Support and Resistance |
|||||||
Trend
|
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Mar
|
U
|
1346
|
1372 |
1388
|
1410 |
1412 |
1426 |
ES
|
|||||||
Mar
|
U
|
2597
|
2653 |
2707
|
2741 |
2742 |
2775 |
Nasdaq
|
|||||||
Mar
|
U
|
117.0
|
118.49 |
119.31 |
120.44 |
121.71 |
123.47 |
Yen
|
3
|
||||||
Mar
|
U
|
129.3
|
130.54 |
131.71 |
132.95 |
132.42 |
133.11 |
EC
|
5
|
||||||
june 10
|
D
|
126.0
|
127.13 |
127.17
|
128.02 |
130.15 |
132.10 |
Year
|
7
|
||||||
june 30
|
D
|
132.0 |
134.07 |
134.22 |
136.17 |
139.29 |
143.12 |
Year
|
0 |
||||||
May
|
U
|
13.14
|
13.44 |
13.53 |
13.75 |
13.905 |
14.07 |
Soybea
|
|||||||
ns
|
|||||||
May
|
U
|
6.307 |
6.517 |
6.53 |
6.72 |
6.837 |
6.947 |
Corn
|
|||||||
April
|
D
|
1588
|
1624 |
1645 |
1674 |
1707 |
1753 |
Gold
|
|||||||
May
|
U
|
30.09 |
31.34 |
32.03 |
33.25 |
34.12 |
35.66 |
Silver
|
|||||||
May
|
U
|
375 |
382 |
383
|
393 |
394 |
400 |
Copper
|
|||||||
April
|
U
|
102.3 |
104.76 |
105.93
|
108.70 |
108.54 |
109.94 |
Crude
|
8 |
||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.