3.20.2014
Top Day Market News
The key to yesterday was the press conference after the FED’s rate decision. New Chairman Janet Yellen turned out to be more opaque than her predecessor and the market took it badly. It seemed as though the tapering would continue until completion in October and the eventual increase in short term rates would happen as early as six months following the end of the taper. This altered the market’s understanding of the timeline and brought the event horizon containing higher rates closer. The dollar strengthened on this and metals fell in price. Was this a watershed moment?
Today we get initial and continuing claims, existing home sale and the Philly Fed.
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Week of March 17 - March 21 |
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Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
|
Mar 17 |
08:30 |
Empire Manufacturing |
Mar |
|
2.0 |
5.4 |
4.5 |
|
|
|
Mar 17 |
09:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC Flows |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
- $45.9B |
|
|
|
Mar 17 |
09:15 |
Industrial Production |
Feb |
|
-0.1% |
0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
|
|
Mar 17 |
09:15 |
Capacity Utilization |
Feb |
|
78.4% |
78.5% |
78.5% |
|
|
|
Mar 17 |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
Mar |
|
50 |
50 |
46 |
|
|
|
Mar 18 |
08:30 |
Housing Starts |
Feb |
|
875K |
915K |
880K |
|
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Mar 18 |
08:30 |
Building Permits |
Feb |
|
945K |
955K |
937K |
|
|
Mar 18 |
08:30 |
CPI |
Feb |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
Mar 18 |
08:30 |
Core CPI |
Feb |
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
Mar 19 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
03/15 |
|
NA |
NA |
-2.1% |
|
|
Mar 19 |
08:30 |
Current Account Balance |
Q4 |
|
-$88.0B |
-$87.6B |
- $94.8B |
|
|
Mar 19 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
03/15 |
|
NA |
NA |
6.180M |
|
|
Mar 19 |
14:00 |
FOMC Rate Decision |
Mar |
|
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
|
Mar 20 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
03/15 |
|
330K |
330K |
315K |
|
|
Mar 20 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
03/08 |
|
2900K |
2883K |
2855K |
|
|
Mar 20 |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales |
Feb |
|
4.55M |
4.60M |
4.62M |
|
|
Mar 20 |
10:00 |
Philadelphia Fed |
Mar |
|
2.0 |
2.0 |
-6.3 |
|
|
Mar 20 |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators |
Feb |
|
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
Mar 20 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
03/15 |
|
NA |
NA |
-195 bcf |
|
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
|
June ES |
|
U |
1803.50 |
1818.0 |
1826 |
1865 |
1861.0 |
1889.00 |
|
June Nasdaq |
U |
|
3553 |
3584 |
3625 |
3702 |
3686 |
3756 |
|
June Yen |
U |
|
95.95 |
97.35 |
97..09 |
98.44 |
99.48 |
100.21 |
|
June EC |
U |
|
137.68 |
138.36 |
137.79 |
139.64 |
139.69 |
140.34 |
|
June 10 Year Note |
U |
|
122.25 |
12323 |
122.18 |
124.10 |
125.09 |
125.30 |
|
June 30 Year Bond |
U |
129.21 |
131.18 |
131.14 |
132.28 |
134.24 |
132.28 |
|
May Soybean |
U |
13.125 |
13.50 |
14.19 |
14.43 |
14.41 |
14.94 |
|
May Corn |
D |
4.64 |
4.78 |
4.77 |
4.92 |
4.95 |
5.04 |
|
Aprl Gold |
D |
1305 |
1346 |
1311 |
1358 |
1404 |
1426 |
|
May Silver |
D |
20.10 |
20.78 |
20.50 |
21.02 |
21.96 |
22.47 |
|
May Copper |
U |
280.50 |
287.50 |
291 |
303 |
304.50 |
214.50 |
|
April Crude |
PRD(U) |
98.52 |
96.79 |
99.90 |
101.19 |
102.03 |
105.06 |
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