Top Day Recommendations
3.23
Just new home sales. Very light news day. Bonds have a caught a bid over the last several sessions as concerns have focused on the Chinese economic contraction. The HSBC index of Chinese manufacturing fell to 48.1 from 49.6 in February. Europe is already expected to go into a mild recession this year for all the obvious reasons and this too is a bond market positive. At the same time, the rush to buy bonds as a hedge against a credit event has been removed for at least the time being. Also, rates are normalizing with US economic improvement. All of this lends itself to a good two way market, buyers and sellers with conviction. The number of Americans saying that the US economy is improving rose to its best level since 2004 (seems to be coincident with stock market levels). IEA is saying that it is not planning for any scheduled oil releases to temper prices. Gasoline demand fell for the third consecutive week in the US. Americans are very aware of price points in gasoline.
Week of March 19 - March 23
Date
|
ET |
Release
|
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Briefing.com |
Prior |
Revised |
|
Forecast |
Consensus |
From |
||||||
Mar
|
10:00
|
NAHB Housing
|
Mar
|
31
|
31
|
29
|
||
19
|
Market Index
|
|||||||
Mar |
08:30 | Housing Starts | Feb | 715K | 705K | 699K | |
| 20 | |||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Building Permits | Feb | 680K | 695K | 676K | |
| 20 | |||||||
| Mar | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 03/17 | NA | NA | -2.4% |
Date
|
ET
|
Release
|
For
|
Actual
|
Briefing.com Briefing.com
|
Prior
|
Revised
|
|
Forecast
|
Consensus
|
From
|
||||||
21 |
||||||||
Mar |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales |
Feb |
4.45M |
4.61M |
4.57M |
||
21 |
||||||||
Mar |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
03/17 |
NA |
NA |
1.750M |
||
21 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
03/17 |
355K |
355K |
351K |
||
22 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
03/10 |
3400K |
3363K |
3343K |
||
22 |
||||||||
Mar |
10:00 |
FHFA Housing Price |
Jan |
NA |
NA |
0.7% |
||
22 |
Index |
|||||||
Mar |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators |
Feb |
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.4% |
||
22 |
||||||||
Mar |
10:00 |
New Home Sales |
Feb |
320K |
321K |
321K |
||
23 |
||||||||
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
|
|||||||
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
|
|||||||
Levels are for the most active futures contract
|
|||||||
Daily Support and Resistance |
|||||||
Trend
|
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
June
|
D
|
1346
|
1372 |
1380.75
|
1399.00 |
1412 |
1426 |
ES
|
|||||||
June
|
PRD(D)
|
2597
|
2653 |
2742 |
2775 |
||
Nasdaq
|
|||||||
June
|
U
|
117.0
|
118.49 |
2717 |
2742 |
121.71 |
123.47 |
Yen
|
3
|
||||||
June
|
D
|
129.3
|
130.54 |
131.31 |
133.17 |
132.42 |
133.11 |
EC
|
5
|
||||||
June
|
PRD (U)
|
126.0
|
127.13 |
128.14
|
129.00 |
130.15 |
132.10 |
10
|
7
|
||||||
Year
|
|||||||
June
|
U
|
132.0 |
134.07 |
136.18 |
137.16 |
139.29 |
143.12 |
30
|
0 |
||||||
Year
|
|||||||
May
|
U
|
13.14
|
13.44 |
13.38 |
13.70 |
13.905 |
14.07 |
Soybea
|
|||||||
ns
|
|||||||
May
|
D
|
6.307 |
6.517 |
6.38 |
6.53 |
6.837 |
6.947 |
Corn
|
|||||||
April
|
D
|
1588
|
1624 |
1627 |
1671 |
1707 |
1753 |
Gold
|
|||||||
May
|
U
|
30.09 |
31.34 |
30.84 |
32.10 |
34.12 |
35.66 |
Silver
|
|||||||
May
|
U
|
375 |
382 |
372
|
383 |
394 |
400 |
Copper
|
|||||||
May
|
U
|
102.3 |
104.76 |
104.19
|
106.81 |
108.54 |
109.94 |
Crude
|
8 |
||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.