Top Day Recommendations
3.28.11
Already eco releases this morning with Personal Income up less than expected at 03%
vs. an expected 0.4% while Personal Spending comes in higher than expected at 0.7% vs.
an expected 0.5%. PCE prices increased in line with expectations. Oil is lower by $1.40
and this has induced some profit taking in the metals. Of course the big number of the
week will be the unemployment number on Friday. The Street is looking for an add of
203K in new jobs suggesting stability if not outright expansion of the US economy.
Stocks are stable, bonds are backing up in yield and dollar is slightly stronger putting
some selling pressure on metals. Grains remain well bid and there seems to be no end in
sight to the problems with the Japanese reactors.
This Week's Calendar
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised
From
Mar 28 08:30 Personal Income Feb 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 1.2% 1.0%
Mar 28 08:30 Personal Spending Feb 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%
Mar 28 08:30 PCE Prices - Core Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Mar 28 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jan 0.0% 0.3% -2.8%
Mar 29 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Jan -3.5% -3.3% -2.38%
Mar 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence Mar 64.0 65.0 70.4
Mar 30 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 03/25 NA NA +2.7%
Mar 30 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Mar NA NA 20%
Mar 30 08:15 ADP Employment Change Mar 200K 210K 217K
Mar 30 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/26 NA NA 2.131M
Mar 31 08:30 Initial Claims 03/26 370K 383K 382K
Mar 31 08:30 Continuing Claims 03/19 3700K 3700K 3721K
Mar 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Mar 68.0 69.5 71.2
Mar 31 10:00 Factory Orders Feb 0.0% 0.4% 3.1%
Apr 01 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Mar 175K 185K 192K
Apr 01 08:30 Nonfarm Private Payrolls Mar 200K 203K 222K
Apr 01 08:30 Unemployment Rate Mar 9.0% 8.9% 8.9%
Apr 01 08:30 Hourly Earnings Mar 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised
From
Apr 01 08:30 Average Workweek Mar 34.3 34.3 34.2
Apr 01 10:00 ISM Index Mar 59.0 61.4 61.4
Apr 01 10:00 Construction Spending Feb -1.0% -0.7% -0.7%
Apr 01 15:00 Auto Sales Apr NA NA 4.61M
Apr 01 15:00 Truck Sales Apr NA NA 5.61M
Current views, speculations and suggestions.
They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical
in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend P is Positive N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
Emini S+P P 1260.00 1285.00 1304.50 1315.00 1324 1339
Emini Naz P 2174 2245 1302 2333 2316 2406
Yen N 120.00 122.39 122.15 123.50 123.36 125.00
EC P 139.11 1402 139.47 141.39 143.50 145.00
10 Year N 117.31 118.29 118.20 119.19 120.08 121.11
30 Year N 118..21 120.00 119.13 120.29 121.21 123.14
Soybeans P 13.18 13.338 13.45 13.74 13.77 13.96
Corn P 6.49 6.69 6.79 7.08 7.13 7.37
Apr Gold PRD 1403 1413 1413 1444 1445 1461.7
May Silver PRD 34.13 35.74 36.32 37.60 38.56 39.78
May Copper N 419.00 430.80 436 444 449.60 459.50
May Crude P 100.18 102.85 103.83 106.06 107.40 109.36
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial
investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.