Top Day Recommendations
3.28
This morning stocks were are a bit better in front of the durable goods orders. Durable goods came out and were a little bit disappointing and the market has trimmed to those gains subsequently. Also stocks had caught an earlier bid due to remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke that the economy had made gains but those gains may not be sustainable. Of course this gave the impression of more stimulus in the future. Other than that, we get the IEA numbers regarding the most recent supply numbers for crude oil and its products at 10:30. The API numbers last night showed a build and also there is renewed talk of release of oil from strategic reserves by both the US and France and this has sent crude oil down to its outside support for the day of 105.98. Outside support on heating oil comes in at 320.50 while gasoline is through its daily support of 335.40. Dollar strength is also pressure gold which needed to close above 1690.20 yesterday and failed. Daily support in gold is at 1668.50. Equities are trying to cling to their games despite negative forces from other markets probably due to month and short covering and window-dressing.
30
Date |
ET |
Release
|
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Briefing.com |
Prior |
Revised |
|
Forecast |
Consensus |
From |
||||||
Mar
|
10:00
|
Pending Home Sales
|
Feb
|
0.5%
|
0.5%
|
2.0%
|
||
Date
|
ET
|
Release
|
For
|
Actual
|
Briefing.com Briefing.com
|
Prior
|
Revised
|
|
Forecast
|
Consensus
|
From
|
||||||
26 |
||||||||
Mar |
09:00 |
Case-Shillerclick on |
Jan |
-4.0% |
-3.8% |
-4.0% |
||
27 |
file 20-city Index |
|||||||
Mar |
10:00 |
Consumer Confidence |
Mar |
71.0 |
70.0 |
70.8 |
||
27 |
||||||||
Mar |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
03/24 |
NA |
NA |
-7.4% |
||
28 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Durable Orders |
Feb |
2.5% |
2.5% |
-3.7% |
-4.0% |
|
28 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Durable Orders -ex |
Feb |
0.5% |
1.0% |
-3.0% |
-3.2% |
|
28 |
Transportation |
|||||||
Mar |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
03/24 |
NA |
NA |
- |
||
28 |
1.160M |
|||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
03/24 |
350K |
350K |
348K |
||
29 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
03/17 |
3400K |
3385K |
3352K |
||
29 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
GDP - Third Estimate |
Q4 |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
||
29 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
GDP Deflator - Third |
Q4 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
0.9% |
||
29 |
Estimate |
|||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Personal Income |
Feb |
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
||
30 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
Personal Spending |
Feb |
0.8% |
0.6% |
0.2% |
||
30 |
||||||||
Mar |
08:30 |
PCE Prices - Core |
Feb |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
||
30 |
||||||||
Mar |
09:45 |
Chicago PMI |
Mar |
62.0 |
62.0 |
64.0 |
||
30 |
||||||||
Mar |
09:55 |
Michigan Sentiment - |
Mar |
73.5 |
74.3 |
74.3 |
||
30 |
Final |
|||||||
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| June | D | 1366 | 1380 | 1397 | 1415.50 | 1407 | 1421 |
| ES | |||||||
| June | D | 2677 | 2703 | 2762 | 2786 | 2751 | 2774 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| June | PRD(D) | 117.7 | 119.51 | 119.94 | 121.60 | 122.61 | 123.90 |
| 0 | |||||||
| Yen | |||||||
| June | D | 130.7 | 131.73 | 132.78 | 133.81 | 133.35 | 133.96 |
| 6 | |||||||
| EC | |||||||
| June | U | 127.0 | 128.02 | 129.03 | 130.05 | 129.21 | 130.08 |
| 10 | 3 | ||||||
| Year | |||||||
| June | U | 134.0 | 135.30 | 137.18 | 139.10 | 138.29 | 140.00 |
| 30 | 2 | ||||||
| Year | |||||||
| May | U | 13.21 | 13.43 | 13.63 | 13.93 | 13.77 | 14.00 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| May | D | 6.14 | 6.30 | 6.21 | 6.40 | 6.69 | 6.92 |
| Corn | |||||||
| April | D | 1610. | 1635.00 | 1668.50 | 1695.0 | 1678 | 1695 |
| Gold | 3 | ||||||
| May | U | 30.12 | 31.16 | 32.05 | 33.04 | 33.16 | 34.12 |
| Silver | |||||||
| May | U | 365 | 373 | 383 | 390 | 390 | 399 |
| Copper | |||||||
| May | U | 102.4 | 104.60 | 105.98 | 107.86 | 108.80 | 110.85 |
| 5 | |||||||
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF