Top Day Recommendations
3.29
Stocks are slightly lower overnight and that downside bias was justified with the release of the weekly jobless claims. They came in at 359,000 and the prior week was upwardly adjusted. The third estimate of US gross domestic product came in at 3% and the minutia of this report suggests a slight deceleration of corporate profits. This data point negatively feeds back into the unemployment picture. Bonds are subsequently higher as rates fall.
Italy does sell debt successful as yields decline. The yen is higher on repatriation as their fiscal year ends on March 31. Unwind enough crosses against the yen sends the EC lower. Oil continues to trade defensively on the idea of economic contraction and the prospect for some sort of resolution with Iran on or about April 14.
The sale of the Dodgers at twice the price of the next highest bidder and the fact that the purchase was from a distressed seller continues to scratch my head.
30
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Mar | 10:00 | Pending Home Sales | Feb | 0.5% | 0.5% | 2.0% | ||
| 26 | ||||||||
| Mar | 09:00 | Case-Shillerclick on | Jan | -4.0% | -3.8% | -4.0% | ||
| 27 | file 20-city Index | |||||||
| Mar | 10:00 | Consumer Confidence | Mar | 71.0 | 70.0 | 70.8 | ||
| 27 | ||||||||
| Mar | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 03/24 | NA | NA | -7.4% | ||
| 28 | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Durable Orders | Feb | 2.5% | 2.5% | -3.7% | -4.0% | |
| 28 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Durable Orders -ex | Feb | 0.5% | 1.0% | -3.0% | -3.2% | |
| 28 | Transportation | |||||||
| Mar | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 03/24 | NA | NA | - | ||
| 28 | 1.160M | |||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 03/24 | 350K | 350K | 348K | ||
| 29 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 03/17 | 3400K | 3385K | 3352K | ||
| 29 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | GDP - Third Estimate | Q4 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | ||
| 29 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | GDP Deflator - Third | Q4 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | ||
| 29 | Estimate | |||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Personal Income | Feb | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | ||
| 30 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | Personal Spending | Feb | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | ||
| 30 | ||||||||
| Mar | 08:30 | PCE Prices - Core | Feb | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | ||
| 30 | ||||||||
| Mar | 09:45 | Chicago PMI | Mar | 62.0 | 62.0 | 64.0 | ||
| 30 | ||||||||
| Mar | 09:55 | Michigan Sentiment - | Mar | 73.5 | 74.3 | 74.3 | ||
| 30 | Final | |||||||
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| June | D | 1366 | 1380 | 1381.25 | 1411.00 | 1407 | 1421 |
| ES | |||||||
| June | D | 2677 | 2703 | 2729.50 | 2788 | 2751 | 2774 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| June | U | 117.7 | 119.51 | 120.41 | 121.61 | 122.61 | 123.90 |
| Yen | 0 | ||||||
| June | D | 130.7 | 131.73 | 132.80 | 133.77 | 133.35 | 133.96 |
| EC | 6 | ||||||
| June | U | 127.0 | 128.02 | 129.02 | 129.26 | 129.21 | 130.08 |
| 10 | 3 | ||||||
| Year | |||||||
| June | U | 134.0 | 135.30 | 137.05 | 138.28 | 138.29 | 140.00 |
| 30 | 2 | ||||||
| Year | |||||||
| May | PRD(D) | 13.21 | 13.43 | 13.61 | 13.85 | 13.77 | 14.00 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| May | D | 6.14 | 6.30 | 6.09 | 6.30 | 6.69 | 6.92 |
| Corn | |||||||
| April | D | 1610. | 1635.00 | 1635 | 1676 | 1678 | 1695 |
| 3 | |||||||
| Gold | |||||||
| May | PRD(D) | 30.12 | 31.16 | 31.17 | 32.42 | 33.16 | 34.12 |
| Silver | |||||||
| May | PRD(D) | 365 | 373 | 372 | 384 | 390 | 399 |
| Copper | |||||||
| May | U | 102.4 | 104.60 | 103.40 | 106.67 | 108.80 | 110.85 |
| Crude | 5 | ||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.