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Italy does sell debt successfully as yields decline

Top Day Recommendations

3.29

Stocks are slightly lower overnight and that downside bias was justified with the release of the weekly jobless claims. They came in at 359,000 and the prior week was upwardly adjusted. The third estimate of US gross domestic product came in at 3% and the minutia of this report suggests a slight deceleration of corporate profits. This data point negatively feeds back into the unemployment picture. Bonds are subsequently higher as rates fall.

Italy does sell debt successful as yields decline. The yen is higher on repatriation as their fiscal year ends on March 31. Unwind enough crosses against the yen sends the EC lower. Oil continues to trade defensively on the idea of economic contraction and the prospect for some sort of resolution with Iran on or about April 14.

The sale of the Dodgers at twice the price of the next highest bidder and the fact that the purchase was from a distressed seller continues to scratch my head.

30

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Mar 10:00 Pending Home Sales Feb   0.5% 0.5% 2.0%  
26    
               
Mar 09:00 Case-Shillerclick on Jan   -4.0% -3.8% -4.0%  
27 file 20-city Index    
             
Mar 10:00 Consumer Confidence Mar   71.0 70.0 70.8  
27    
               
Mar 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 03/24   NA NA -7.4%  
28    
               
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Mar 08:30 Durable Orders Feb   2.5% 2.5% -3.7% -4.0%
28  
               
Mar 08:30 Durable Orders -ex Feb   0.5% 1.0% -3.0% -3.2%
28 Transportation  
             
Mar 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/24   NA NA -  
28   1.160M  
             
Mar 08:30 Initial Claims 03/24   350K 350K 348K  
29    
               
Mar 08:30 Continuing Claims 03/17   3400K 3385K 3352K  
29    
               
Mar 08:30 GDP - Third Estimate Q4   3.0% 3.0% 3.0%  
29    
               
Mar 08:30 GDP Deflator - Third Q4   0.9% 0.9% 0.9%  
29 Estimate    
             
Mar 08:30 Personal Income Feb   0.3% 0.4% 0.3%  
30    
               
Mar 08:30 Personal Spending Feb   0.8% 0.6% 0.2%  
30    
               
Mar 08:30 PCE Prices - Core Feb   0.1% 0.1% 0.2%  
30    
               
Mar 09:45 Chicago PMI Mar   62.0 62.0 64.0  
30    
               
Mar 09:55 Michigan Sentiment - Mar   73.5 74.3 74.3  
30 Final    
             

MARKET PLACE

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

    Daily Support and Resistance  
               
  Trend WS2 WS1 DS DR WR1 WR2
             
               
June D 1366 1380 1381.25 1411.00 1407 1421
           
ES              
June D 2677 2703 2729.50 2788 2751 2774
           
Nasdaq              
June U 117.7 119.51 120.41 121.61 122.61 123.90
           
Yen   0          
             
June D 130.7 131.73 132.80 133.77 133.35 133.96
           
EC   6          
             
June U 127.0 128.02 129.02 129.26 129.21 130.08
           
10   3          
             
Year              
June U 134.0 135.30 137.05 138.28 138.29 140.00
           
30   2          
             
Year              
May PRD(D) 13.21 13.43 13.61 13.85 13.77 14.00
           
Soybea              
ns              
May D 6.14 6.30 6.09 6.30 6.69 6.92
           
Corn              
April D 1610. 1635.00 1635 1676 1678 1695
3          
Gold            
             
May PRD(D) 30.12 31.16 31.17 32.42 33.16 34.12
           
Silver              
May PRD(D) 365 373 372 384 390 399
           
Copper              
May U 102.4 104.60 103.40 106.67 108.80 110.85
           
Crude   5          
             
               

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.