WEEKLY FUTURES REPORT

03.30.11

Filed 8:45 pm

Last Last Week

May Crude 104.22 105.55

May Heat 305.30 306.70

May Gas (Blended) 305.80 302.50

Crude oil came off moderately in price after the Department of Energy

stated that crude stocks for the latest reporting week reflected a larger

than estimated increase in stocks. The stocks increase was a result of

demand decline to a four month low. Crude stocks were higher by

2.95millon barrels to 355.7 million barrels. The trade had been looking

for an increase of 1.5 million barrels. Gas consumption declined by 2.1

% as measured against levels seen last year at this time. Fuel demand

was at its lowest level since last November as price finally had a

deteriorating effect on demand. Cushing, Oklahoma the hub for West

Texas Intermediate oil, remains very well supplied. Even with today’s

modest declines, prices are higher by 27% than last year at this time

due to supply disruptions and violence in the Middle East. Volume on

the NY Mercantile Exchange has contracted recently as well. Traders

say that the lack of volume suggests that traders have not formed a

consensus on directionality. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma are at their

highest levels since the DOE has been tracking them. Even so, crude is

up 14% on the year on insurance buying against unrest in the Middle

East. The conflict in Libya remains far from resolution. Oil output from

Libya, a major producer, has been reduced by 1.3 million barrels. If

event risk from the Middle East were removed from the market, crude

would be $5.00 to $10.00 lower than current levels just on

supply/demand considerations. For many players, the top is in on the

crude oil market barring any new conflagrations. Money flow in crude

oil remains positive, however. Money flow in Heating Oil is negative

while money flow in Gasoline is positive. Heat/Gas spreads continue to

suggest buying the gas and selling the heat as the chart below suggests.

Support Resistance

May Crude 101.80

106.40

May Heat 299.75

309.80

May Gas 299.80

308.40

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METALS

Last Last Week

June Gold 1425.40 1439.50

May Silver 37.45 37.19

July Platinum 1769.70

1764.20

Gold prices rallied on Wednesday, rallying for the first time in several

sessions. Gold found renewed buying interest due to increasing conflicts

in Libya and increasing debt concerns in the Eurozone... Standard &

Poor’s cut debt ratings yesterday for both Greece and Portugal. The

high for gold was made on March 24 at $1448. Geopolitical factors are

the key for gold trading at this point. The resolution in Libya remains

vague. No one is certain how this is going to play out exactly. Oil

production in Libya has been reduced to a trickle. Gold has a seasonal

habit of rallying on the last Wednesday of the month in front of an

expiration or rollover. Such was the case today. Traders continue to

point towards the Federal Reserve’s highly accommodative monetary

policy is inflating the price of gold. On the other hand, traders are also

looking at the ECB and its penchant at this point to raise short-term

interest rates. Higher rates would be a negative for gold. Players are

convinced that if the Federal Reserve decided to conduct QE3, the price

of gold would soon be headed to $2000 an ounce. If the ECB decided to

raise short-term rates this would further exacerbate situations in

Ireland, Spain and Portugal and probably induce more people to

eventually buy gold. At this juncture, money flow in gold is negative.

Money flow in silver is negative. Money flow in platinum is positive but

could reverse with a lower close tomorrow, Thursday.

Support Resistance

June Gold 1405.50 1403.70

May Silver 35.92 37.64

July Plat 1707.50 1796.00

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SOFTS

Last Last Week

May Coffee 264.60 268.60

May Sugar 27.21 26.58

Coffee was lower in price on increased profit taking at the end of the

month while sugar was higher. Brazilian exporters are expected to face

increased delays as heavy rains delayed the harvest. Many of the major

producers will not start processing until late April because of these

rains. This is expected to create a bottleneck. The situation at the major

shipping port of Santos is said to be confused. A record 600 ships

loaded sugar last year at this port, a 20% increase from last year. The

price of sugar is up 48% year on year.

Support Resistance

May Coffee 249.50 290.70

May Sugar 25.58 29.34

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Last Last Week

May Soybeans 13.73 13.512

May Corn 6.64 6.81

May Wheat 7.25 7.14

Soybeans rallied in front of a US government report which is expected

to show farmers switching to corn in terms of planting intentions for the

coming year. This would have a positive effect on the price. Soybean

acreage may be just 76.7 million acres this year compared with a

previous estimate by the US Department of Agriculture on 78 million

acres. Even with average weather conditions, trade interests are looking

for higher prices for soybeans going forward. As far as corn acreage

intentions the US may plant 91.75 million acres this year, up from 88.19

million acres last year. This would be the biggest drop since 2007 and

the second-largest crop since 1944. Money flow for soybeans is positive.

Money flow for corn is positive. Money flow for wheat is negative but

could reverse in a higher close Thursday.

Support Resistance

May Soybeans 13.29 13.85

May Corn 6.54

6.85

May Wheat 7.12 7.54

Chuck Kespert from NY/NY

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT

LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO

REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN

FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS

SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS

THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE

FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL

TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO

ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING

LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS

RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF

ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.