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Phone: 312.920.0212
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Merrillville, IN 46410

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Weekly jobless claims come in at 388K slightly higher than expected

Top Day Recommendations

3.31.11

Opening Day for NYC baseball and at the same time a winter storm warning. Right.

Business as usual. Back to economics. Weekly jobless claims come in at 388K missing

expectations of 380K. Stocks are slightly lower overnight but stocks are headed for their

best quarterly performance in years. Biggest winner was CAT. Canadian GDP comes in

as expected. Crude is higher probably on the latest twist and turn in Libya. Pound is

lower on growth downgrades. S+P downgrades Portuguese debt. So, all in all, we have a

lot of noise this morning as the quarter comes to a close and the market gears up for

tomorrow’s unemployment number.

Week's Calendar

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Mar 28 08:30 Personal Income Feb 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 1.2% 1.0%

Mar 28 08:30 Personal Spending Feb 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

Mar 28 08:30 PCE Prices - Core Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Mar 28 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jan 0.0% 0.3% -2.8%

Mar 29 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Jan -3.5% -3.3% -2.38%

Mar 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence Mar 64.0 65.0 70.4

Mar 30 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 03/25 NA NA +2.7%

Mar 30 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Mar NA NA 20%

Mar 30 08:15 ADP Employment Change Mar 200K 210K 217K

Mar 30 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/26 NA NA 2.131M

Mar 31 08:30 Initial Claims 03/26 370K 383K 382K

Mar 31 08:30 Continuing Claims 03/19 3700K 3700K 3721K

Mar 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Mar 68.0 69.5 71.2

Mar 31 10:00 Factory Orders Feb 0.0% 0.4% 3.1%

Apr 01 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Mar 175K 185K 192K

Apr 01 08:30 Nonfarm Private Payrolls Mar 200K 203K 222K

Apr 01 08:30 Unemployment Rate Mar 9.0% 8.9% 8.9%

Apr 01 08:30 Hourly Earnings Mar 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Apr 01 08:30 Average Workweek Mar 34.3 34.3 34.2

Apr 01 10:00 ISM Index Mar 59.0 61.4 61.4

Apr 01 10:00 Construction Spending Feb -1.0% -0.7% -0.7%

Apr 01 15:00 Auto Sales Apr NA NA 4.61M

Apr 01 15:00 Truck Sales Apr NA NA 5.61M

Current views, speculations and suggestions.

They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical

in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

P is Positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Emini S+P P 1260.00 1285.00 1305 1329 1324 1339

Emini Naz P 2174 2245 2299 2347 2316 2406

Yen N 120.00 122.39 120.48 123.27 123.36 125.00

EC P 139.11 140.20 140.19 141.23 143.50 145.00

10 Year N 117.31 118.29 118.08 119.17 120.08 121.11

30 Year N 118..21 120.00 118.31 121.01 121.21 123.14

Soybeans P 13.18 13.338 13.45 13.73 13.77 13.96

Corn P 6.49 6.69 6.63 6.786 7.13 7.37

Apr Gold N 1403 1413 1410.3 1429.4 1445 1461.7

May Silver N 34.13 35.74 36.99 37.64 38.56 39.78

May Copper N 419.00 430.80 425 441 449.60 459.50

May Crude P 100.18 102.85 103.32 105.62 107.40 109.36

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial

investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.