Top Day Recommendations
4.03
Today, we get a factory orders at 10 o’clock. The market is looking for an increase of 1.5%. Yesterday, the market had a massively positive reaction to the Institute for supply management number and the construction spending figure. Being a Tuesday, which automatically nominates itself as a potential reversal day, look for some opposite action today. Also, we have the release of the Federal Reserve open market committee meeting minutes at two o’clock. They’re always interesting for their picture or snapshot of the American economy.
Overnight, gold is slightly weaker from the physical demand is slow. 90% of jewelry stores across India were shut today as jewelers there extended to strike for an 18th consecutive day to protest a tax. Oil is lower by $.50 while gasoline is higher as the trade is expecting an increase crude stocks to levels not seen since last August. There is no shortage of supplies. The trade is looking for an increase of 2.2 million barrels while gasoline stocks probably fell by 750,000 barrels. Looming on the horizon are talks with Iran on April 14.
Japan is bracing for its worst storm since 1959. 500 flights have been canceled so far.
Week of April 02 - April 06
Date
|
ET
|
Release
|
For
|
Actual
|
Briefing.com Briefing.com
|
Prior
|
Revised
|
|
Forecast
|
Consensus
|
From
|
||||||
Apr |
10:00 |
ISM Index |
Mar |
52.0 |
53.0 |
52.4 |
||
02 |
||||||||
Apr |
10:00 |
Construction |
Feb |
1.0% |
0.5% |
-0.1% |
||
02 |
Spending |
|||||||
Apr |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
Feb |
2.0% |
1.4% |
-1.0% |
||
03 |
||||||||
Apr |
14:00 |
FOMC Minutes |
3/13 |
|||||
03 |
||||||||
Apr |
14:00 |
Auto Sales |
Mar |
NA |
NA |
5.5M |
||
03 |
||||||||
Apr |
14:00 |
Truck Sales |
Mar |
NA |
NA |
5.9M |
||
03 |
||||||||
Apr |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
03/31 |
NA |
NA |
-2.7% |
||
04 |
||||||||
Apr |
08:15 |
ADP Employment |
Mar |
220K |
213K |
216K |
||
04 |
Change |
|||||||
Apr |
10:00 |
ISM Services |
Mar |
56.0 |
56.9 |
57.3 |
||
04 |
||||||||
Apr |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
03/31 |
NA |
NA |
7.102M |
||
04 |
||||||||
Apr |
07:30 |
Challenger Job Cuts |
Mar |
NA |
NA |
2.0% |
||
05 |
||||||||
Apr |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
03/31 |
355K |
355K |
359K |
||
05 |
||||||||
Apr |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
03/24 |
3375K |
3355K |
3340K |
||
05 |
||||||||
Apr |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
Mar |
230K |
200K |
227K |
||
06 |
||||||||
Apr |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Private |
Mar |
250K |
215K |
233K |
||
06 |
Payrolls |
|||||||
Apr |
08:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
Mar |
8.2% |
8.3% |
8.3% |
||
06 |
||||||||
Apr |
08:30 |
Hourly Earnings |
Mar |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
||
06 |
||||||||
Apr |
08:30 |
Average Workweek |
Mar |
34.5 |
34.5 |
34.5 |
||
06 |
||||||||
Apr |
15:00 |
Consumer Credit |
Feb |
$10.0B |
$14.0B |
$17.8B |
||
06 |
||||||||
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend
|
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
June
|
PRD(U)
|
1369 |
1386 |
1401.75
|
1420.50 |
1419 |
1436 |
ES
|
|||||||
June
|
D
|
2695 |
2723 |
2752
|
2792 |
2784 |
2818 |
Nasdaq
|
|||||||
June
|
U
|
118.7
|
119.75 |
120.51 |
123.47 |
122.04 |
123.31 |
Yen
|
3
|
||||||
June
|
D
|
131.1
|
132.27 |
132.85 |
133.89 |
133.51 |
135.03 |
EC
|
5
|
||||||
June
|
U
|
127.0
|
128.23 |
129.08
|
130.11 |
130.05 |
130.26 |
3
|
|||||||
10
|
|||||||
Year
|
|||||||
June
|
U
|
135.1 |
136.22 |
137.08 |
139.14 |
138.32 |
140.07 |
9 |
|||||||
30
|
|||||||
Year
|
|||||||
May
|
PRD(U)
|
13.25
|
13.64 |
13.93 |
14.47 |
14.29 |
14.55 |
Soybea
|
|||||||
ns
|
|||||||
May
|
PRD(U)
|
5.81 |
6.12 |
6.405 |
6.66 |
6.65 |
6.87 |
Corn
|
|||||||
June
|
PRD(U)
|
1619
|
1645 |
1667 |
1688 |
1697 |
1725 |
Gold
|
|||||||
May
|
PRD(U)
|
30.79 |
31.52 |
32.54 |
33.45 |
33.08 |
33.91 |
Silver
|
|||||||
May
|
PRD(U)
|
368 |
375 |
385
|
395 |
389 |
397 |
Copper
|
|||||||
May
|
D
|
98.66 |
100.79 |
103.03
|
105.46 |
106.39 |
109.86 |
Crude
|
|||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.