4.03.2014
Top Day Market News
The big event risk of the early morning will be the ECB rate decision. They are faced with a unique situation: deflationary pressures. There is a temptation for them to stimulate. All economies need some inflation. There is little in the way of wage inflation in the Euro zone and there are several severe problems: youth unemployment being prime among them. Central Banks are far more equipped to deal with inflation by jacking up interest rates. Deflation is another story. If you drop rates and stimulate and still nothing happens, what do you do then?
ADP private jobs forecast came in just a tad under expectations and trading in the wake of it was kind of spotty. Copper couldn’t hold onto gains from the Chilean earthquake. Wheat saw some serious selling pressure as Black Sea origins don’t look to be threatened by recent political events.
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Week of March 31 - April 04 |
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|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
|
Mar 31 |
09:45 |
Chicago PMI |
Mar |
|
60.0 |
60.1 |
59.8 |
|
|
|
Apr 01 |
10:00 |
ISM Index |
Mar |
|
54.2 |
54.1 |
53.2 |
|
|
|
Apr 01 |
10:00 |
Construction Spending |
Feb |
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
Apr 01 |
14:00 |
Auto Sales |
Mar |
|
NA |
NA |
5.2M |
|
|
|
Apr 01 |
14:00 |
Truck Sales |
Mar |
|
NA |
NA |
7.0M |
|
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Apr 02 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
03/29 |
|
NA |
NA |
-3.5% |
|
|
Apr 02 |
08:15 |
ADP Employment Change |
Mar |
|
215K |
215K |
139K |
|
|
Apr 02 |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
Feb |
|
1.1% |
1.1% |
-0.7% |
|
|
Apr 02 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
03/29 |
|
NA |
NA |
6.619M |
|
|
Apr 03 |
07:30 |
Challenger Job Cuts |
Mar |
|
NA |
NA |
-24.4% |
|
|
Apr 03 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
03/29 |
|
320K |
320K |
311K |
|
|
Apr 03 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
03/22 |
|
2850K |
2850K |
2823K |
|
|
Apr 03 |
08:30 |
Trade Balance |
Feb |
|
-$40.5B |
-$39.5B |
-$39.1B |
|
|
Apr 03 |
10:00 |
ISM Services |
Mar |
|
53.0 |
53.5 |
51.6 |
|
|
Apr 03 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
03/29 |
|
NA |
NA |
-57 bcf |
|
|
Apr 04 |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
Mar |
|
185K |
197K |
175K |
|
|
Apr 04 |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Private Payrolls |
Mar |
|
195K |
205K |
162K |
|
|
Apr 04 |
08:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
Mar |
|
6.6% |
6.6% |
6.7% |
|
|
Apr 04 |
08:30 |
Hourly Earnings |
Mar |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
Apr 04 |
08:30 |
Average Workweek |
Mar |
|
34.5 |
34.4 |
34.2 |
|
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
|
June ES |
|
U |
1816 |
1833 |
1877 |
1887 |
1867 |
1885 |
|
June Nasdaq |
U |
|
3463 |
3513 |
3644 |
3670 |
3635 |
3787 |
|
June Yen |
D |
|
96.38 |
96.84 |
96.07 |
96.56 |
98.06 |
98.82 |
|
June EC |
U |
|
136.02 |
136.70 |
137.31 |
138.03 |
138.49 |
139.48 |
|
June 10 Year Note |
PRD(D) |
122.21 |
123.03 |
122.22 |
123.09 |
123.31 |
124.13 |
|
|
June |
D |
|
131.10 |
132.13 |
131.21 |
132.15 |
134.18 |
135.20 |
|
30 Year Bond |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
May Soybeans |
U |
13.39 |
14.03 |
14.46 |
14.86 |
14.60 |
14.84 |
|
May Corn |
U |
4.71 |
4.80 |
4.88 |
5.05 |
4.99 |
5.06 |
|
June Gold |
D |
1255 |
1275 |
1281.50 |
1297.50 |
1324 |
1354 |
|
May Silver |
D |
19.16 |
19.49 |
19.805 |
20.22 |
20.23 |
20.64 |
|
May Copper |
U |
287.60 |
295.00 |
301.20 |
306.80 |
308.00 |
313.00 |
|
May Crude |
D |
97.46 |
99.56 |
98.46 |
100.01 |
103.00 |
104.34 |
|
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|
|
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