Top Day Recommendations
4.05.11
Week of April 04 - April 08
Overnight, China surprised markets by raising short-term interest rates. This is part of a continuing effort to dampen inflationary pressures. If China persists in continuing to raise short-term rates this could alter macro economic models. But as you can see this morning the net effect of this unannounced hike is sort of minimal with the exception of the highly correlated Australian dollar which is significantly lower. As far as the US, we get to look at ISM services at 10 o’clock and also the minutes of the last Fed meeting at two o’clock. Before Libya, the interest rate move by China would have pushed the crude oil at least a dollar lower. That’s not the case morning however. Indeed, most of the activity in the currency markets morning is cross related with the Canadian dollar gained against the Australian dollar as a pair and the British pound gain against the EC as a pair. Moody’s cuts Portugal’s rating.
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||||
| Apr 05 | 10:00 | ISM Services | Mar | 59.0 | 59.5 | 59.7 | |||||||||||
| Apr 05 | 14:00 | Fed Minutes | Mar 15 | ||||||||||||||
| Apr 06 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 04/01 | NA | NA | -7.5% | |||||||||||
| Apr 06 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 04/02 | NA | NA | 2.945M | |||||||||||
| Apr 07 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 04/02 | 400K | 388K | 388K | |||||||||||
| Apr 07 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 03/26 | 3700K | 3700K | 3714K | |||||||||||
| Apr 07 | 15:00 | Consumer Credit | Feb | $2.0B | $3.6B | $5.0B | |||||||||||
| Apr 08 | 10:00 | Wholesale Inventories | Feb | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | |||||||||||
Current views, speculations and suggestions.
They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Emini S+P | P | 1287 | 1307 | 1302.50 | 1331.0 | 1340 | 1354 |
| Emini Naz | P | 2260 | 2299 | 2309 | 2352 | 2367 | 2397 |
| Yen | N | 115.11 | 117.04 | 118.18 | 119.34 | 121.92 | 124.87 |
| EC | P | 139.20 | 140.68 | 1413.00 | 1424.00 | 142.95 | 143.74 |
| 10 Year | PRD | 117.23 | 118.10 | 118.19 | 119.24 | 119.17 | 120.03 |
| 30 Year | N | 118.19 | 119.16 | 119.18 | 121.08 | 121.04 | 121.27 |
| Soybeans | PRD | 13.08 | 13.56 | 13.76 | 14.09 | 14.47 | 14.90 |
| Corn | P | 6.39 | 6.91 | 7.48 | 7.79 | 7.70 | 7.97 |
| June Gold | N | 1397 | 1413 | 1422.9 | 1445.00 | 1451 | 1456 |
| May Silver | P | 35.87 | 36.85 | 37.49 | 39.11 | 36.87 | 38.96 |
| May Copper | N | 407.70 | 416.60 | 418 | 430.00 | 439.00 | 452.4 |
| May Crude | P | 100.72 | 104.51 | 107.10 | 109.47 | 110.28 | 112.26 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.