Top Day Recommendations
4.06.11
Week of April 04 - April 08
Overnight, Fed speak suggests that the Fed will not tighten until year end, maybe. This gives an overnight green light to ramp the dollar and lift equities. German factory orders continue to motor. EC is ignoring weak Portuguese debt sales. Will ECB raise rates tomorrow? That’s the 64 million euro dollar question. UK industrial production staggers. Metals continue to be well bid given the weaker dollar. A quick technical measurement of gold action on bigger time frames suggests a move to 1542 by Mid-summer. Even copper is higher today, one day after a Chinese rate hike. Be cautious of base metal strength, however. Last time there was a government shutdown the long bond rallied so caveat emptor. Oil seems to be taking the day off so far, waiting for the inventory numbers..
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||||
| Apr 05 | 10:00 | ISM Services | Mar | 59.0 | 59.5 | 59.7 | |||||||||||
| Apr 05 | 14:00 | Fed Minutes | Mar 15 | ||||||||||||||
| Apr 06 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 04/01 | NA | NA | -7.5% | |||||||||||
| Apr 06 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 04/02 | NA | NA | 2.945M | |||||||||||
| Apr 07 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 04/02 | 400K | 388K | 388K | |||||||||||
| Apr 07 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 03/26 | 3700K | 3700K | 3714K | |||||||||||
| Apr 07 | 15:00 | Consumer Credit | Feb | $2.0B | $3.6B | $5.0B | |||||||||||
| Apr 08 | 10:00 | Wholesale Inventories | Feb | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | |||||||||||
Current views, speculations and suggestions.
They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Emini S+P | P | 1287 | 1307 | 1321.75 | 1392.50 | 1340 | 1354 |
| Emini Naz | P | 2260 | 2299 | 2313 | 2352 | 2367 | 2397 |
| Yen | N | 115.11 | 117.04 | 117.10 | 118.67 | 121.92 | 124.87 |
| EC | P | 139.20 | 140.68 | 141.80 | 142.85 | 142.95 | 143.74 |
| 10 Year | N | 117.23 | 118.10 | 118.07 | 119.07 | 119.17 | 120.03 |
| 30 Year | N | 118.19 | 119.16 | 118.29 | 120.19 | 121.04 | 121.27 |
| Soybea | N | 13.08 | 13.56 | 13.74 | 14.10 | 14.47 | 14.90 |
| ns | |||||||
| Corn | P | 6.39 | 6.91 | 7.54 | 7.804 | 7.70 | 7.97 |
| June Gold | PRD | 1397 | 1413 | 1436.10 | 1474.90 | 1451 | 1456 |
| May Silver | P | 35.87 | 36.85 | 38.39 | 40.12 | 36.87 | 38.96 |
| May Copper | N | 407.70 | 416.60 | 422 | 432 | 439.00 | 452.4 |
| May Crude | P | 100.72 | 104.51 | 107.69 | 109.24 | 110.28 | 112.26 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.