Top Day Recommendations
4.07.11
Week of April 04 - April 08
ECB raises rates by .25 as universally expected. Jobless claims down 10K.
At least the Euro zone bailout packages are getting smaller. A year ago it was Greece for 110 Billion Euros, then Ireland for 95 billion and now Portugal for 75 Billion. Germany, export juggernaut that it is, hardly needs a higher currency while the peripheral EC nations are ready to fall off the economic map. 87% of Spanish mortgages are variable rate. Whoops. The ECB (like China) is taking the view that inflation is a cyclic certainty and must be killed off at all costs while the Fed is looking at inflationary pressures as transitory. Be careful what you kill, you just might find that it’s something that’s vitally attached. Meanwhile, a US government shutdown would furlough zillions of government workers, halt tax refund payments, stop small business loans and throw a huge wrench into the mortgage lending machine. At the same time, Japan leaves rates at 0% and injects ever more liquidity into their economy to help pave the road back to normalcy. There are so many crosswinds maybe they’ll all cancel each other out and calm will result. And if you believe that I know a bridge that’s for sale.
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||||
| Apr 05 | 10:00 | ISM Services | Mar | 59.0 | 59.5 | 59.7 | |||||||||||
| Apr 05 | 14:00 | Fed Minutes | Mar 15 | ||||||||||||||
| Apr 06 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 04/01 | NA | NA | -7.5% | |||||||||||
| Apr 06 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 04/02 | NA | NA | 2.945M | |||||||||||
| Apr 07 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 04/02 | 400K | 388K | 388K | |||||||||||
| Apr 07 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 03/26 | 3700K | 3700K | 3714K | |||||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| Apr 07 | 15:00 | Consumer Credit | Feb | $2.0B | $3.6B | $5.0B | ||||||||
| Apr 08 | 10:00 | Wholesale Inventories | Feb | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | ||||||||
Current views, speculations and suggestions.
They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Emini S+P | P | 1287 | 1307 | 1324.50 | 1335.00 | 1340 | 1354 |
| Emini Naz | P | 2260 | 2299 | 2311.50 | 2344.75 | 2367 | 2397 |
| Yen | N | 115.11 | 117.04 | 116.76 | 117.70 | 121.92 | 124.87 |
| EC | P | 139.20 | 140.68 | 142.31 | 143.63 | 142.95 | 143.74 |
| 10 Year | N | 117.23 | 118.10 | 117.03 | 118.32 | 119.17 | 120.03 |
| 30 Year | N | 118.19 | 119.16 | 118.00 | 119.24 | 121.04 | 121.27 |
| Soybeans | N | 13.08 | 13.56 | 13.82 | 13.97 | 14.47 | 14.90 |
| Corn | P | 6.39 | 6.91 | 7.65 | 7.95 | 7.70 | 7.97 |
| June Gold | P | 1397 | 1413 | 1452.7 | 1463.9 | 1451 | 1456 |
| May Silver | P | 35.87 | 36.85 | 39.07 | 39.74 | 36.87 | 38.96 |
| May Copper | PRD | 407.70 | 416.60 | 428 | 443.50 | 439.00 | 452.4 |
| May Crude | P | 100.72 | 104.51 | 107.90 | 109.40 | 110.28 | 112.26 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.