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Phone: 312.920.0212
Fax: 855.994.4111


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9247 Broadway
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Merrillville, IN 46410

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ECB raises rates by .25 and jobless claims down 10k

Top Day Recommendations

4.07.11

Week of April 04 - April 08

ECB raises rates by .25 as universally expected. Jobless claims down 10K.

At least the Euro zone bailout packages are getting smaller. A year ago it was Greece for 110 Billion Euros, then Ireland for 95 billion and now Portugal for 75 Billion. Germany, export juggernaut that it is, hardly needs a higher currency while the peripheral EC nations are ready to fall off the economic map. 87% of Spanish mortgages are variable rate. Whoops. The ECB (like China) is taking the view that inflation is a cyclic certainty and must be killed off at all costs while the Fed is looking at inflationary pressures as transitory. Be careful what you kill, you just might find that it’s something that’s vitally attached. Meanwhile, a US government shutdown would furlough zillions of government workers, halt tax refund payments, stop small business loans and throw a huge wrench into the mortgage lending machine. At the same time, Japan leaves rates at 0% and injects ever more liquidity into their economy to help pave the road back to normalcy. There are so many crosswinds maybe they’ll all cancel each other out and calm will result. And if you believe that I know a bridge that’s for sale.

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 05 10:00 ISM Services Mar 59.0 59.5 59.7
Apr 05 14:00 Fed Minutes Mar 15
Apr 06 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 04/01 NA NA -7.5%
Apr 06 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/02 NA NA 2.945M
Apr 07 08:30 Initial Claims 04/02 400K 388K 388K
Apr 07 08:30 Continuing Claims 03/26 3700K 3700K 3714K
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Feb $2.0B $3.6B $5.0B
Apr 08 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Feb 0.5% 1.0% 1.1%

Current views, speculations and suggestions.

They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

P is Positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Emini S+P P 1287 1307 1324.50 1335.00 1340 1354
Emini Naz P 2260 2299 2311.50 2344.75 2367 2397
Yen N 115.11 117.04 116.76 117.70 121.92 124.87
EC P 139.20 140.68 142.31 143.63 142.95 143.74
10 Year N 117.23 118.10 117.03 118.32 119.17 120.03
30 Year N 118.19 119.16 118.00 119.24 121.04 121.27
Soybeans N 13.08 13.56 13.82 13.97 14.47 14.90
Corn P 6.39 6.91 7.65 7.95 7.70 7.97
June Gold P 1397 1413 1452.7 1463.9 1451 1456
May Silver P 35.87 36.85 39.07 39.74 36.87 38.96
May Copper PRD 407.70 416.60 428 443.50 439.00 452.4
May Crude P 100.72 104.51 107.90 109.40 110.28 112.26

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.