Top Day Recommendations
4.10
Markets are generally quiet this morning as Europe reenters the fray from the respite purchased from the holiday. European debt spreads are widening this morning and European stocks are at two month lows with Frankfort down 1.1% and Britain down 1%. Alcoa kicks off the earnings season today after the close. The Yen continues to be spread against other currencies.
It’s another quiet news day in terms of releases with just wholesale inventories at 10.
We have recalibrated the technical levels for the week now that all markets are up and trading.
Week of April 09 - April 13
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Apr | 10:00 | Wholesale | Feb | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | ||
| 10 | Inventories | |||||||
| Apr | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 04/07 | NA | NA | 4.8% | ||
| 11 | ||||||||
| Apr | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Mar | NA | NA | 0.5% | ||
| 11 | ||||||||
| Apr | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Mar | NA | NA | -0.1% | ||
| 11 | ||||||||
| Apr | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 04/07 | NA | NA | 9.009M | ||
| 11 | ||||||||
| Apr | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | Mar | NA | NA | - | ||
| 11 | $188.2B | |||||||
| Apr | 14:00 | Fed's Beige Book | Apr | |||||
| 11 | ||||||||
| Apr | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 04/07 | 355K | 355K | 357K | ||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| 12 | ||||||||
| Apr | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 03/31 | 3350K | 3350K | 3338K | ||
| 12 | ||||||||
| Apr | 08:30 | PPI | Mar | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | ||
| 12 | ||||||||
| Apr | 08:30 | Core PPI | Mar | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||
| 12 | ||||||||
| Apr | 08:30 | Trade Balance | Feb | -$53.0B | -$52.0B | -$52.6B | ||
| 12 | ||||||||
| Apr | 08:30 | CPI | Mar | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Apr | 08:30 | Core CPI | Mar | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Apr | 09:55 | Mich Sentiment | Apr | 75.5 | 76.1 | 76.2 | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| June | D | 1347. | 1367 | 1370.2 | 1387.50 | 1414 | 1439 |
| 50 | 5 | ||||||
| ES | |||||||
| June | D | 2682 | 2718 | 2715 | 2744.75 | 2790 | 2827 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| June | U | 119 | 120.87 | 122.31 | 123.50 | 123.85 | 124.96 |
| Yen | |||||||
| June | PRD (U) | 128.2 | 129.55 | 130.62 | 131.65 | 133.02 | 135.18 |
| EC | 4 | ||||||
| June | U | 127.3 | 129.16 | 130.29 | 131.10 | 131.26 | 132.20 |
| 1 | |||||||
| 10 | |||||||
| Year | |||||||
| June | U | 135.0 | 137.21 | 140.03 | 141.10 | 141.18 | 142.28 |
| 30 | 2 | ||||||
| Year | |||||||
| May | D | 13.97 | 14.15 | 14.20 | 14.57 | 14.41 | 14.52 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| May | U | 6.37 | 6.504 | 6.435 | 6.59 | 6.67 | 6.76 |
| Corn | |||||||
| June | D | 1570 | 1600 | 1637.1 | 1656.7 | 1672 | 1715 |
| Gold | 0 | ||||||
| May | U | 29.68 | 30.70 | 31.18 | 31.97 | 33.02 | 34.31 |
| Silver | |||||||
| May | U | 365 | 371 | 368 | 377 | 391 | 402 |
| Copper | |||||||
| May | D | 98.88 | 101.09 | 101.31 | 103.10 | 105.50 | 107.70 |
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.