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Phone: 312.920.0212
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Another aftershock in Japan and the threat from Fukushima gets upgraded to a Chernobyl like level

Top Day Recommendations

4.12.11

Risk came off the table last night as there was another large aftershock in Japan while the threat from Fukushima was upgraded to a Chernobyl like level and Alcoa missed its projections (down 4%), probably in that order. Refuge was sought in the Yen and Swiss while copper and stock indices were sold. Oil was all over the place after yesterday’s sell-off and the IMF reduction in world economies. Trade deficit comes in better but not better than expected while import prices were higher than expected. Higher oil acts as a consumer tax and directly curtails spending but you knew that.

This Week's Calendar

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 12 08:30 Trade Balance Feb -$45.0B -$45.7B -$46.3B
Apr 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Mar NA NA 0.9%
Apr 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Mar NA NA 0.3%
Apr 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Mar -$189.0B -$189.0B -$65.4B
Apr 13 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 04/08 NA NA -2%
Apr 13 08:30 Retail Sales Mar 0.6% 0.5% 1.0%
Apr 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Mar 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
Apr 13 10:00 Business Inventories Feb 0.8% 0.8% 0.9%
Apr 13 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/09 NA NA 1.952M
Apr 13 14:00 Fed's Beige Book Apr
Apr 14 08:30 Initial Claims 04/09 390K 385K 382K
Apr 14 08:30 Continuing Claims 04/02 3700K 3700K 3723K
Apr 14 08:30 PPI Mar 0.8% 1.0% 1.6%
Apr 14 08:30 Core PPI Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Apr 15 08:30 CPI Mar 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Apr 15 08:30 Core CPI Mar 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Apr 15 08:30 Empire Manufacturing Apr 15.0 15.0 17.5
Apr 15 09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Feb NA NA $51.5B
Apr 15 09:15 Industrial Production Mar 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% -0.1%
Apr 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Mar 77.4% 77.4% 77.0% 76.3%
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 15 09:55 Mich Sentiment Apr 66.0 66.0 67.5

Current views, speculations and suggestions.

They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

P is Positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Emini S+P N 1308.50 1316 1309 1328 1333 1344
Emini Naz PRD 2279 2298 2282 2327 2343 2369
Yen P 115.73 116.83 11762 11900 119.17 120.41
EC P 140.06 142.073 143.61 14500 1454 1467
10 Year N 117.01 117.28 118.05 118.28 119.07 120.03
30 Year N 116.03 117.10 117.19 119.03 120.10 122.03
Soybeans N 13.55 13.79 13.48 14.06 14.205 14.375
Corn P 7.25 7.494 7.552 7.914 7.896 8.05
June Gold P 1413.3 1444.8 1451 1477 1468.7 1507.9
May Silver P 36.75 38.84 39.59 41.80 41.99 43.05
May Copper P 410.30 430.50 439 451.4 461.60 472.50
May Crude P 105.54 109.25 106.00 112.50 115.00 116.96

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.