Top Day Recommendations
4.13.11
Retail sales come in better than expected at +0.6% versus 0.5%. Retail sales ex-autos come in at 0.8% versus 0.7% expected. This helps lift equities and depresses bonds. This number also inspires some confidence and puts some rest back on the table so the yen is down 57 on this news, gold up seven dollars and silver is up $.39. Crude options apparently expire today so there could be some torque to that market on their unwinding and of course we get the weekly supply and demand figures at 1030. We also have an auction today in the treasury market and the beige book which is the anecdotal reference to the last Federal Reserve meeting comes up at two o’clock. The president will also make a speech on the budget. Yesterday the market was spooked by Alcoa’s earnings, an aftershock in Japan and the Goldman Sachs call for lower oil prices. But today brings a new day and with it the opening of the Japanese baseball season. Despite monumental obstacles, life has this persistency to persist. While the Upanishads have the three gunas (the creator, the sustainer and the destroyer), the market has hope fear and greed. Today’s emphasis will be on hope; at least I hope so.
This Week's Calendar
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||||
| Apr 12 | 08:30 | Trade Balance | Feb | -$45.0B | -$45.7B | -$46.3B | |||||||||||
| Apr 12 | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Mar | NA | NA | 0.9% | |||||||||||
| Apr 12 | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Mar | NA | NA | 0.3% | |||||||||||
| Apr 12 | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | Mar | -$189.0B | -$189.0B | -$65.4B | |||||||||||
| Apr 13 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 04/08 | NA | NA | -2% | |||||||||||
| Apr 13 | 08:30 | Retail Sales | Mar | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | |||||||||||
| Apr 13 | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Mar | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | |||||||||||
| Apr 13 | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Feb | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | |||||||||||
| Apr 13 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 04/09 | NA | NA | 1.952M | |||||||||||
| Apr 13 | 4:00 | Fed's Beige Book | Apr | ||||||||||||||
| Apr 14 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 04/09 | 390K | 385K | 382K | |||||||||||
| Apr 14 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 04/02 | 3700K | 3700K | 3723K | |||||||||||
| Apr 14 | 08:30 | PPI | Mar | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | |||||||||||
| Apr 14 | 08:30 | Core PPI | Mar | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |||||||||||
| Apr 15 | 08:30 | CPI | Mar | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |||||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||||||||
| Apr 15 | 08:30 | Core CPI | Mar | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 15 | 08:30 | Empire Manufacturing | Apr | 15.0 | 15.0 | 17.5 | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 15 | 09:00 | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | Feb | NA | NA | $51.5B | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 15 | 09:15 | Industrial Production | Mar | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||||||||||
| Apr 15 | 09:15 | Capacity Utilization | Mar | 77.4% | 77.4% | 77.0% | 76.3% | ||||||||||||||
| Apr 15 | 09:55 | Mich Sentiment | Apr | 66.0 | 66.0 | 67.5 | |||||||||||||||
Current views, speculations and suggestions.
They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Emini S+P | N | 1308.50 | 1316 | 1302 | 1326 | 1333 | 1344 |
| Emini Naz | PRD | 2279 | 2298 | 2282 | 2321 | 2343 | 2369 |
| Yen | P | 115.73 | 116.83 | 117.22 | 120.23 | 119.17 | 120.41 |
| EC | P | 140.06 | 142.073 | 142.96 | 145.84 | 1454 | 1467 |
| 10 Year | PRD | 117.01 | 117.28 | 117.26 | 119.29 | 119.07 | 120.03 |
| 30 Year | PRD | 116.03 | 117.10 | 117.18 | 119.31 | 120.10 | 122.03 |
| Soybeans | N | 13.55 | 13.79 | 12.98 | 14.02 | 14.205 | 14.375 |
| Corn | P | 7.25 | 7.494 | 745 | 792 | 7.896 | 8.05 |
| June Gold | PRD | 1413.3 | 1444.8 | 1443 | 1479 | 1468.7 | 1507.9 |
| May Silver | PRD | 36.75 | 38.84 | 39.02 | 41.43 | 41.99 | 43.05 |
| May Copper | PRD | 410.30 | 430.50 | 429 | 445 | 461.60 | 472.50 |
| May Crude | PRD | 105.54 | 109.25 | 104.40 | 109.17 | 115.00 | 116.96 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.