Top Day Recommendations
4.15.11
CPI comes in as about as expected with the core rate (minus food and energy) coming in on the squishy side at only 0.1%. Empire State Manufacturing came in at a robust 27.1 versus 17.5 a month ago. Bonds liked the soft core number and have rallied towards daily resistance at 120.22 for the long end. Crude saw some vol yesterday with options expiration and the market sticking to a 108 close for the strangles at that number to go out next to worthless. Google had a sort of miss last night with costs coming in higher than hoped for even though revenue continues to look good.
Anecdotally, you know you have food inflation when organized crime hijacks 6 tractor trailer loads of tomatoes.
Risk is off the table today, for the moment, with the Yen higher, most everything else lower. Grains lower overnight, again. Gold continues to be under massive accumulation by central banks so the best advice would be to match the direction their shoulders are pointing.
Enjoy the weekend. Actually, the older you get the more weekends become an afterthought before they even happen.
This Week's Calendar
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||||
| Apr 12 | 08:30 | Trade Balance | Feb | -$45.0B | -$45.7B | -$46.3B | |||||||||||
| Apr 12 | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Mar | NA | NA | 0.9% | |||||||||||
| Apr 12 | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Mar | NA | NA | 0.3% | |||||||||||
| Apr 12 | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | Mar | -$189.0B | -$189.0B | -$65.4B | |||||||||||
| Apr 13 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 04/08 | NA | NA | -2% | |||||||||||
| Apr 13 | 08:30 | Retail Sales | Mar | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | |||||||||||
| Apr 13 | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Mar | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | |||||||||||
| Apr 13 | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Feb | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | |||||||||||
| Apr 13 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 04/09 | NA | NA | 1.952M | |||||||||||
| Apr 13 | 4:00 | Fed's Beige Book | Apr | ||||||||||||||
| Apr 14 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 04/09 | 390K | 385K | 382K | |||||||||||
| Apr 14 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 04/02 | 3700K | 3700K | 3723K | |||||||||||
| Apr 14 | 08:30 | PPI | Mar | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | |||||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||||||||
| Apr 14 | 08:30 | Core PPI | Mar | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 15 | 08:30 | CPI | Mar | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 15 | 08:30 | Core CPI | Mar | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 15 | 08:30 | Empire Manufacturing | Apr | 15.0 | 15.0 | 17.5 | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 15 | 09:00 | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | Feb | NA | NA | $51.5B | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 15 | 09:15 | Industrial Production | Mar | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||||||||||
| Apr 15 | 09:15 | Capacity Utilization | Mar | 77.4% | 77.4% | 77.0% | 76.3% | ||||||||||||||
| Apr 15 | 09:55 | Mich Sentiment | Apr | 66.0 | 66.0 | 67.5 | |||||||||||||||
Current views, speculations and suggestions.
They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Emini S+P | N | 1308.50 | 1316 | 1297 | 1324 | 1333 | 1344 |
| Emini Naz | PRD | 2279 | 2298 | 2278.50 | 2334.00 | 2343 | 2369 |
| Yen | P | 115.73 | 116.83 | 118.75 | 120.40 | 119.17 | 120.41 |
| EC | P | 140.06 | 142.073 | 143.29 | 145.45 | 1454 | 1467 |
| 10 Year | P | 117.01 | 117.28 | 118.16 | 119.27 | 119.07 | 120.03 |
| 30 Year | P | 116.03 | 117.10 | 118.10 | 120.20 | 120.10 | 122.03 |
| Soybeans | N | 13.55 | 13.79 | 13.28 | 13.68 | 14.205 | 14.375 |
| Corn | P | 7.25 | 7.494 | 7.40 | 7.83 | 7.896 | 8.05 |
| June Gold | P | 1413.3 | 1444.8 | 1445 | 1468 | 1468.7 | 1507.9 |
| May Silver | P | 36.75 | 38.84 | 39.92 | 41.11 | 41.99 | 43.05 |
| May Copper | N | 410.30 | 430.50 | 419.75 | 445.55 | 461.60 | 472.50 |
| May Crude | P | 105.54 | 109.25 | 104.49 | 108.75 | 115.00 | 116.96 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.