Top Day Recommendations
4.17
Housing starts down 5.8% while permits are up 4.5%, sort of a wash. European stocks rallied on a better than expected Spanish bond auction. Oil was lower yesterday on news of a reversal on the Seaway Reversal two months ahead of schedule which will send more crude supplies to the gulf and away from Cushing, Oklahoma where there is a glut. The Spanish debt auction results and the retail sales figures helped lift crude form the lows. The American Petroleum Institute will release their figures on oil inventories after the close today.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization come out at 9:15 and that’s that for that.
Week of April 16 - April 20
Date
|
ET
|
Release
|
For
|
Actual
|
Briefing.com Briefing.com
|
Prior
|
Revised
|
|
Forecast
|
Consensus
|
From
|
||||||
Apr |
08:30 |
Retail Sales |
Mar |
0.0% |
0.3% |
1.1% |
||
16 |
||||||||
Apr |
08:30 |
Retail Sales ex-auto |
Mar |
0.3% |
0.6% |
0.9% |
||
16 |
||||||||
Apr |
08:30 |
Empire |
Apr |
18.0 |
17.5 |
20.2 |
||
16 |
Manufacturing |
|||||||
Apr |
09:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC |
Feb |
NA |
NA |
$101.0B |
||
16 |
Flows |
|||||||
Apr |
10:00 |
Business Inventories |
Feb |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.7% |
||
16 |
||||||||
Apr |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing |
Apr |
29 |
29 |
28 |
||
16 |
Market Index |
|||||||
Apr
|
08:30
|
Housing Starts |
Mar
|
700K
|
700K
|
698K
|
||
Date
|
ET
|
Release
|
For
|
Actual
|
Briefing.com Briefing.com
|
Prior
|
Revised
|
|
Forecast
|
Consensus
|
From
|
||||||
17 |
||||||||
Apr |
08:30 |
Building Permits |
Mar |
700K |
710K |
717K |
||
17 |
||||||||
Apr |
09:15 |
Industrial Production |
Mar |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
||
17 |
||||||||
Apr |
09:15 |
Capacity Utilization |
Mar |
78.5% |
78.5% |
78.4% |
78.7% |
|
17 |
||||||||
Apr |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
04/14 |
NA |
NA |
-2.4% |
||
18 |
||||||||
Apr |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
04/14 |
NA |
NA |
2.791M |
||
18 |
||||||||
Apr |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
04/14 |
375K |
375K |
380K |
||
19 |
||||||||
Apr |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
04/07 |
3300K |
3275K |
3251K |
||
19 |
||||||||
Apr |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales |
Mar |
4.68M |
4.62M |
4.59M |
||
19 |
||||||||
Apr |
10:00 |
Philadelphia Fed |
Apr |
10.0 |
10.3 |
12.5 |
||
19 |
||||||||
Apr |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators |
Mar |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.7% |
||
19 |
||||||||
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance |
|||||||
Trend
|
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
June
|
D
|
1332
|
1349 |
1358
|
1381 |
1384 |
1404 |
ES
|
|||||||
June
|
D
|
2645
|
2669 |
2643
|
2697 |
2733 |
2772 |
Nasdaq
|
|||||||
June
|
U
|
121.3
|
122.32 |
123.68 |
124.77 |
124.29 |
125.22 |
Yen
|
2
|
||||||
June
|
D
|
129.3
|
130.07 |
134.01 |
131.95 |
131.88 |
132.93 |
EC
|
1
|
||||||
June
|
U
|
130.1
|
131.01 |
131.08
|
131.29 |
131.25 |
132.07 |
7
|
|||||||
10
|
|||||||
Year
|
|||||||
June
|
U
|
139.0 |
140.01 |
140.31 |
142.10 |
142.07 |
142.31 |
5 |
|||||||
30
|
|||||||
Year
|
|||||||
May
|
D
|
13.97 |
14.17 |
14.11 |
14.32 |
14.54 |
14.71 |
Soybea
|
|||||||
ns
|
|||||||
May
|
D
|
5.99 |
6.14 |
6.19 |
6.27 |
6.54 |
6.79 |
Corn
|
|||||||
June
|
PRD(D)
|
1609 |
1634 |
1641.2 |
1658.8 |
1683 |
1706.6 |
Gold
|
|||||||
May
|
PRD(D)
|
30.25 |
30.87 |
31.13 |
31.94 |
32.34 |
33.19 |
Silver
|
|||||||
May
|
D
|
348 |
354 |
354
|
365 |
374 |
386 |
Copper
|
|||||||
May
|
D
|
99.02 |
100.93 |
102.03
|
104.27 |
104.149 |
106.14 |
Crude
|
|||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.