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Merrillville, IN 46410

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The dollar continues to weaken, pushing all commodities higher

Top Day Recommendations

4.21.11

Here we go again. Last trading day of the week for most of us. The dollar continues to be weaker and lifts all commodities as a rising tide lifts all (you can finish the quote). Apple has a beat and thrives in post and premarket. Watch for early closings. It’s a big getaway day. US government bond market closes at 1.

US initial claims are down but not as much as expected. Long end is at the highs. Dollar index is at lowest levels since 2008 (that was a crisis, remember?)

Gold is attempting to feel comfortable above 1500. The Fed continues to believe that inflation is transitory and remains committed to boosting asset values.

Philly Fed and LEI at 10.

This Week's Calendar

Week of April 18 - April 22

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 18 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index Apr 17 17 17
Apr 19 08:30 Housing Starts Mar 500K 520K 479K
Apr 19 08:30 Building Permits Mar 530K 538K 517K
Apr 20 07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 04/15 NA NA -6.7%
Apr 20 10:00 Existing Home Sales Mar 5.15M 5.00M 4.88M
Apr 20 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/16 NA NA 1.627M
Apr 21 08:30 Initial Claims 04/16 370K 390K 412K
Apr 21 08:30 Continuing Claims 04/16 3650K 3650K 3680K
Apr 21 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Apr 30 32.9 43.4
Apr 21 10:00 Leading Indicators Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.8%
Apr 21 10:00 FHFA Housing Price Index Feb NA NA -0.3%

Current views, speculations and suggestions.

They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

P is Positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Emini S+P P 1283 1301 1314 1344 1333 1347
Emini Naz PRD 2260 2285 2324 2394 2234 2358
Yen P 116.33 118.33 120.62 122.36 121.46 122.59
EC P 142..73 143.05 143.61 146.76 145.44 146.74
10 Year P 117.13 118.19 119.23 120.13 120.15 121.04
30 Year P 116.26 118.26 120.24 121.21 121.28 122.30
Soybeans N 12.615 12.965 13.53 13.65 13.865 14.41
Corn PRD 7.104 7.26 7.26 7.65 7.705 7.99
June Gold P 1429.6 1458.3 1492.9 1512.4 1502.4 1517
May Silver P 38.59 40.82 43.73 46.13 44.16 45.28
May Copper PRD 40.39 41.47 426.7 438.0 44.47 46.05
June Crude P 10.23 105.31 109.05 112.75 113.46 117.53

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.