Top Day Recommendations
4.27.11
Will Fed Chairman Bernanke give any reason at all, either directly or indirectly, to buy the dollar? Perhaps that’s the singular question of the day. This day will be remarkable in that it’s the first time a Fed Chairman actually opens himself up to the slings and arrows of a press conference. Will there be follow up questions or just one offs? Also, the FOMC rate decision will be out earlier than usual at 12:30. Running up to this event, risk is on the table with the Yen lower and the EC at or near fresh highs. Our seasoned if not well reasoned expectations for the day is that it has the possibility of tempting kurtosis based on an erroneous instant misinterpretation. Gold and silver could spike tower than be back at unchanged before anyone can humanly react. It might be just one of those days to put in wild card bids and offers. Yesterday’s crater in silver was in part due to another increase in margin requirements. Back when the Hunts tried to corner the silver market the exchange kept raising rates until they made the market liquidation only which presaged a 20 year bear market. Ah, history.
This Week's Calendar Week of April 25 - April 29
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||||||||
| Apr 25 | 10:00 | New Home Sales | Mar | 265K | 280K | 250K | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 26 | 09:00 | Case-Shiller 20-city Index | Feb | -3.2% | -3.2% | -3.06% | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 26 | 10:00 | Consumer Confidence | Apr | 65.0 | 64.4 | 63.4 | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 27 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 04/22 | NA | NA | +5.3% | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 27 | 08:30 | Durable Orders | Mar | 3.0% | 1.9% | -0.6% | -0.7% | ||||||||||||||
| Apr 27 | 08:30 | Durable Orders -ex Transportation | Mar | 3.5% | 1.6% | -0.3% | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 27 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 04/23 | NA | NA | -2.322M | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 27 | 12:30 | FOMC Rate Decision | Apr | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 28 | 08:30 | GDP-Adv. | Q1 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 3.1% | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 28 | 08:30 | GDP Deflator | Q1 | 2.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 28 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 04/23 | 390K | 390K | 403K | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 28 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 04/16 | 3700K | 3700K | 3695K | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 28 | 10:00 | Pending Home Sales | Mar | 0.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 29 | 08:30 | Personal Income | Mar | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | |||||||||||||||
| Apr 29 | 08:30 | Personal Spending | Mar | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | |||||||||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| Apr 29 | 08:30 | PCE Prices - Core | Mar | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | ||||||||
| Apr 29 | 08:30 | Employment Cost Index | Q1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | ||||||||
| Apr 29 | 09:45 | Chicago PMI | Apr | 62.0 | 67.1 | 70.6 | ||||||||
| Apr 29 | 09:55 | Michigan Sentiment - Final | Apr | 70.0 | 69.6 | 69.6 | ||||||||
Read more: http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm#ixzz1KCGQqbEL
Current views, speculations and suggestions.
They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Emini S+P | P | 1272 | 1301 | 1331 | 1348 | 1349 | 1367 |
| Emini Naz | PRD | 2204 | 2289 | 2371 | 2415 | 2422 | 2468 |
| Yen | P | 119.24 | 120.75 | 12171 | 12286 | 123.21 | 124.10 |
| EC | P | 139.47 | 142.51 | 145.15 | 146.73 | 1474.5 | 1493.50 |
| 10 Year | P | 119.03 | 119.17 | 119.31 | 120.28 | 120.12 | 120.25 |
| 30 Year | P | 119.06 | 120.03 | 121.18 | 122.18 | 121.24 | 122.16 |
| Soybeans | P | 13.10 | 13.50 | 13.68 | 13.98 | 141.10 | 14.31 |
| Corn | P | 7.124 | 7.284 | 7.48 | 7.81 | 7.68 | 7.91 |
| June Gold | PRD | 1465.6 | 1485.2 | 1485 | 1517 | 1513.3 | 1529.2 |
| May Silver | P | 40.72 | 43.67 | 43.06 | 48.15 | 48.23 | 49.65 |
| May Copper | P | 408.90 | 423.70 | 421.4 | 435.60 | 446.80 | 455.10 |
| June Crude | P | 103.81 | 180.08 | 111.34 | 113.51 | 114.55 | 116.75 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.