Top Day Recommendations
Yesterday, in his unprecedented press conference, Fed Chairman Bernanke left the barn door open by not giving a single reason to buy the dollar and the markets immediately took both stocks and metals higher and the dollar lower. The Fed rate decision was unanimous. Curious. Hawks must be an endangered species. Up till now, the decline of the dollar has been orderly. It now runs the risk of spinning out of control. The only thing that will stop this momentum is itself and the end of QE2 when the buyer of first and last resort stops funding its own debt issuance, supply exceeds demand and there is a de-facto tightening as the dollar gains traction. The Fed has assumed two things, that inflationary pressures are transitory and the end of QE2 will not be significant. In eventual retrospect, these assumptions may prove to be incorrect.
This morning, GDP slows and jobless claims are higher. This takes a bit of the air out of the bubble.
This Week's Calendar Week of April 25 - April 29
|Apr 25||10:00||New Home Sales||Mar||265K||280K||250K|
|Apr 26||09:00||Case-Shiller 20-city Index||Feb||-3.2%||-3.2%||-3.06%|
|Apr 26||10:00||Consumer Confidence||Apr||65.0||64.4||63.4|
|Apr 27||07:00||MBA Mortgage Index||04/22||NA||NA||+5.3%|
|Apr 27||08:30||Durable Orders||Mar||3.0%||1.9%||-0.6%||-0.7%|
|Apr 27||08:30||Durable Orders -ex Transportation||Mar||3.5%||1.6%||-0.3%|
|Apr 27||10:30||Crude Inventories||04/23||NA||NA||-2.322M|
|Apr 27||12:30||FOMC Rate Decision||Apr||0.25%||0.25%||0.25%|
|Apr 28||08:30||GDP Deflator||Q1||2.0%||2.3%||0.4%|
|Apr 28||08:30||Initial Claims||04/23||390K||390K||403K|
|Apr 28||08:30||Continuing Claims||04/16||3700K||3700K||3695K|
|Apr 28||10:00||Pending Home Sales||Mar||0.0%||1.5%||2.1%|
|Apr 29||08:30||Personal Income||Mar||0.4%||0.4%||0.3%|
|Apr 29||08:30||Personal Spending||Mar||0.6%||0.5%||0.7%|
|Apr 29||08:30||PCE Prices - Core||Mar||0.1%||0.1%||0.2%|
|Apr 29||08:30||Employment Cost Index||Q1||0.5%||0.5%||0.4%|
|Apr 29||09:45||Chicago PMI||Apr||62.0||67.1||70.6|
|Apr 29||09:55||Michigan Sentiment - Final||Apr||70.0||69.6||69.6|
Read more: http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm#ixzz1KCGQqbEL
Current views, speculations and suggestions.
They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL