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The decline of the US dollar seems spinning out of control

Top Day Recommendations

4.28.11

Yesterday, in his unprecedented press conference, Fed Chairman Bernanke left the barn door open by not giving a single reason to buy the dollar and the markets immediately took both stocks and metals higher and the dollar lower. The Fed rate decision was unanimous. Curious. Hawks must be an endangered species. Up till now, the decline of the dollar has been orderly. It now runs the risk of spinning out of control. The only thing that will stop this momentum is itself and the end of QE2 when the buyer of first and last resort stops funding its own debt issuance, supply exceeds demand and there is a de-facto tightening as the dollar gains traction. The Fed has assumed two things, that inflationary pressures are transitory and the end of QE2 will not be significant. In eventual retrospect, these assumptions may prove to be incorrect.

This morning, GDP slows and jobless claims are higher. This takes a bit of the air out of the bubble.

This Week's Calendar Week of April 25 - April 29

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 25 10:00 New Home Sales Mar 265K 280K 250K
Apr 26 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Feb -3.2% -3.2% -3.06%
Apr 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Apr 65.0 64.4 63.4
Apr 27 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 04/22 NA NA +5.3%
Apr 27 08:30 Durable Orders Mar 3.0% 1.9% -0.6% -0.7%
Apr 27 08:30 Durable Orders -ex Transportation Mar 3.5% 1.6% -0.3%
Apr 27 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/23 NA NA -2.322M
Apr 27 12:30 FOMC Rate Decision Apr 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
Apr 28 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q1 0.1% 1.7% 3.1%
Apr 28 08:30 GDP Deflator Q1 2.0% 2.3% 0.4%
Apr 28 08:30 Initial Claims 04/23 390K 390K 403K
Apr 28 08:30 Continuing Claims 04/16 3700K 3700K 3695K
Apr 28 10:00 Pending Home Sales Mar 0.0% 1.5% 2.1%
Apr 29 08:30 Personal Income Mar 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 29 08:30 Personal Spending Mar 0.6% 0.5% 0.7%
Apr 29 08:30 PCE Prices - Core Mar 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Apr 29 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q1 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Apr 29 09:45 Chicago PMI Apr 62.0 67.1 70.6
Apr 29 09:55 Michigan Sentiment - Final Apr 70.0 69.6 69.6

Read more: http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm#ixzz1KCGQqbEL

Current views, speculations and suggestions.

They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

P is Positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Emini S+P P 1272 1301 1342.75 1356.75 1349 1367
Emini Naz PRD 2204 2289 2393.25 2418.75 2422 2468
Yen P 119.24 120.75 120.56 123.00 123.21 124.10
EC P 139.47 142.51 146.36 146.86 1474.5 1493.50
10 Year P 119.03 119.17 120.42 121.00 120.12 120.25
30 Year P 119.06 120.03 121.01 122.21 121.24 122.16
Soybeans PRD 13.10 13.50 13.68 14.12 141.10 14.31
Corn P 7.124 7.284 7.524 7.704 7.68 7.91
June Gold PRD 1465.6 1485.2 1504 1544 1513.3 1529.2
May Silver P 40.72 43.67 44.42 49.83 48.23 49.65
July Copper P 408.90 423.70 419.30 433.50 446.80 455.10
June Crude P 103.81 180.08 111.18 113.87 114.55 116.75

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.