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Phone: 312.920.0212
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9247 Broadway
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Merrillville, IN 46410

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The Fed says, inflationary pressure is transitory

Top Day Recommendations

5.05.11

ECB was expected to leave rates unchanged and they did but Trichet’s communiqué failed to mention the word "vigilance" and this is being taken as code for accommodative. Too much is being written into this narrative but at the same time, the massive bets that were placed in April by commodity funds and ETF buyers are being de-leveraged. It’s a return to balance. The ECB will still be the first to raise rates, never fear. Crude continues to crater, helped in part by weak jobless numbers for the weekly number. The Fed Chairman is looking good for the moment on his call that inflationary pressures are transitory. On the other hand, it’s more probable that this is a de-leveraging and rebalancing.

This Week's Calendar

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 02 10:00 Construction Spending Mar -0.5% 0.0% -1.4%
May 02 10:00 ISM Index Apr 58.5 59.7 61.2
May 02 15:00 Auto Sales May NA NA 4.75M
May 02 15:00 Truck Sales May NA NA 5.19
May 03 10:00 Factory Orders Mar 2.5% 1.9% -0.1%
May 04 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 04/29 NA NA -5.6%
May 04 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Apr NA NA -38.6%
May 04 08:15 ADP Employment Change Apr 200K 200K 201K
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 04 10:00 ISM Services Apr 57.5 57.3 57.3
May 04 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/30 NA NA 6.156M
May 05 08:30 Initial Claims 04/30 400K 400K 429K
May 05 08:30 Continuing Claims 04/23 3650K 3625K 3641K
May 05 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q1 1.0% 1.0% 2.6%
May 05 08:30 Unit Labor Costs Q1 1.0% 0.8% -0.6%
May 06 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Apr 175K 185K 216K
May 06 08:30 Nonfarm Private Payrolls Apr 200K 200K 230K
May 06 08:30 Unemployment Rate Apr 8.9% 8.8% 8.8%
May 06 08:30 Hourly Earnings Apr 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
May 06 08:30 Average Workweek Apr 34.3 34.3 34.3
May 06 15:00 Consumer Credit Mar $5.0B $4.9B $7.6B

They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

P is Positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Emini S+P N 1313.75 1336.75 1335 1352.75 1372.50 1386.75
Emini Naz N 2352 2376 2367 2398 2420 2440
Yen P 119.80 121.55 123.40 124.57 124.23 125.16
EC P 143.32 145.76 147.52 149.19 149.64 151.08
10 Year P 119.15 120.10 121.11 121.27 121.19 122.01
30 Year P 120.12 121.12 123.03 123.28 122.31 123.18
Soybeans N 13.153 13.54 13.43 13.75 14.16 14.397
Corn P 7.02 7.292 7.186 7.45 7.804 8.044
June Gold N 1464.7 1515.2 1499.3 1537 1593 1620
July Silver N 42.28 45.55 38.11 41.49 50.34 52.96
July Copper N 399.50 409.20 408.80 421.70 435.30 451.50
June Crude N 109.40 111.56 106.90 110.80 115.03 116.34

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.