Top Day Recommendations
5.06.11
On the anniversary of the flash crash, the commodities market experienced its own version yesterday. There was nowhere to run yesterday, nowhere to hide. Bet you’ve never seen gasoline down 25 cents in one day or crude down $10 a barrel. At 4:30 am this morning gas was down another 35 cents. As Trichet apparently backed away from interest rate hikes, the rate differential tilted back towards the dollar. Maybe when the Fed Chairman said that inflationary pressures were transitory maybe he knew that the commodity asset bubble he had helped to create with zero interest rate money, that the wealth creation engine designed at the expense of a purposely devalued currency would eventually internally combust, would seize and commodity values would undergo quantum devaluation overnight.
The unemployment rate comes in at 244K, a surprise.
With the headline number at 9.0%, another surprise.
You’ll know the selloff in the commodity space is over when they raise margins on silver yet again (supposedly $21,600 per contact by Monday) and the market doesn’t fall. Then you’ll know the strength of the hands holding those contracts will be capable of putting in a bottom.
This Week's Calendar
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| May 02 | 10:00 | Construction Spending | Mar | -0.5% | 0.0% | -1.4% | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| May 02 | 10:00 | ISM Index | Apr | 58.5 | 59.7 | 61.2 | ||||||||
| May 02 | 15:00 | Auto Sales | May | NA | NA | 4.75M | ||||||||
| May 02 | 15:00 | Truck Sales | May | NA | NA | 5.19 | ||||||||
| May 03 | 10:00 | Factory Orders | Mar | 2.5% | 1.9% | -0.1% | ||||||||
| May 04 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 04/29 | NA | NA | -5.6% | ||||||||
| May 04 | 07:30 | Challenger Job Cuts | Apr | NA | NA | -38.6% | ||||||||
| May 04 | 08:15 | ADP Employment Change | Apr | 200K | 200K | 201K | ||||||||
| May 04 | 10:00 | ISM Services | Apr | 57.5 | 57.3 | 57.3 | ||||||||
| May 04 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 04/30 | NA | NA | 6.156M | ||||||||
| May 05 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 04/30 | 400K | 400K | 429K | ||||||||
| May 05 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 04/23 | 3650K | 3625K | 3641K | ||||||||
| May 05 | 08:30 | Productivity-Prel | Q1 | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.6% | ||||||||
| May 05 | 08:30 | Unit Labor Costs | Q1 | 1.0% | 0.8% | -0.6% | ||||||||
| May 06 | 08:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls | Apr | 175K | 185K | 216K | ||||||||
| May 06 | 08:30 | Nonfarm Private Payrolls | Apr | 200K | 200K | 230K | ||||||||
| May 06 | 08:30 | Unemployment Rate | Apr | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | ||||||||
| May 06 | 08:30 | Hourly Earnings | Apr | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | ||||||||
| May 06 | 08:30 | Average Workweek | Apr | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.3 | ||||||||
| May 06 | 15:00 | Consumer Credit | Mar | $5.0B | $4.9B | $7.6B | ||||||||
Read more: http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm#ixzz1LCQ5SsLU
They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Emini S+P | N | 1313.75 | 1336.75 | 1323 | 1347 | 1372.50 | 1386.75 |
| Emini Naz | N | 2352 | 2376 | 2361 | 2398 | 2420 | 2440 |
| Yen | P | 119.80 | 121.55 | 123.85 | 125.60 | 124.23 | 125.16 |
| EC | P | 143.32 | 145.76 | 143.74 | 147.62 | 149.64 | 151.08 |
| 10 Year | P | 119.15 | 120.10 | 121.21 | 122.07 | 121.19 | 122.01 |
| 30 Year | P | 120.12 | 121.12 | 123.22 | 124.23 | 122.31 | 123.18 |
| Soybeans | N | 13.153 | 13.54 | 13.00 | 13.52 | 14.16 | 14.397 |
| Corn | P | 7.02 | 7.292 | 6.94 | 7.30 | 7.804 | 8.044 |
| June Gold | N | 1464.7 | 1515.2 | 1455 | 1514 | 1593 | 1620 |
| July Silver | N | 42.28 | 45.55 | 31.37 | 39.12 | 50.34 | 52.96 |
| July Copper | N | 399.50 | 409.20 | 392 | 410 | 435.30 | 451.50 |
| June Crude | N | 109.40 | 111.56 | 91.34 | 106.70 | 115.03 | 116.34 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.