Top Day Recommendations
5.09.11
No eco data points for today. The unemployment report came in better than expected on Friday but growing fears going into the weekend that Greece was about to leave the EC put pressure on equities and gave a lift to the bonds. Over the weekend, Greece remains in the EC and will probably get yet another injection or better terms to work out debt issues. Currently Greece can’t finance itself as its paper yields 23%. Germany and France would not be so keen to see Greece return to the drachma either as German banks have 400 billion tied up in Greece and France has 300 billion. The problem with reworking Greece means that the EC will have to renegotiate Ireland and Portugal. S+P just lowered their credit ranking this morning. Staying with Germany, export levels smashed expectations. 7 times expectations. This will boost their Q1 GDP.
After 99 billion dollars of value was removed from the commodities markets last week, perhaps enough brush has been burned off to generate new growth. Goldman seems to think so.
This Week's Calendar
May 09 - May 13
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| May 10 | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Apr | NA | NA | 1.3% | ||||||||
| May 10 | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Apr | NA | NA | 0.6% | ||||||||
| May 10 | 10:00 | Wholesale Inventories | Mar | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | ||||||||
| May 11 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 05/06 | NA | NA | +4% | ||||||||
| May 11 | 08:30 | Trade Balance | Mar | -$45.0B | -$47.8B | -$45.8B | ||||||||
| May 11 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 05/07 | NA | NA | 3.421M | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| May 11 | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | Apr | NA | NA | $82.7B | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 05/07 | 400K | 423K | 474K | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 04/30 | 3700K | 3700K | 3733K | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | PPI | Apr | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | Core PPI | Apr | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | Retail Sales | Apr | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Apr | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | ||||||||
| May 12 | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Mar | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | ||||||||
| May 13 | 08:30 | CPI | Apr | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | ||||||||
| May 13 | 08:30 | Core CPI | Apr | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | ||||||||
| May 13 | 09:55 | Mich Sentiment | May | 70.5 | 69.8 | 69.8 | ||||||||
They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Emini S+P | N | 1296 | 1315 | 1327 | 1347 | 1363 | 1392 |
| Emini Naz | N | 2124 | 2348 | 2361 | 2397 | 2413 | 2452 |
| Yen | P | 120.85 | 122.54 | 123.66 | 124.80 | 125.85 | 127.41. |
| EC | PRD | 138.83 | 141.10 | 142.20 | 145.00 | 147.34 | 151.45 |
| 10 Year | P | 120.09 | 121.09 | 121.23 | 122.21 | 122.27 | 123.14 |
| 30 Year | P | 121.00 | 122.21 | 123.17 | 124.30 | 125.12 | 126.14 |
| Soybeans | N | 12.49 | 12.87 | 13.08 | 13.42 | 13.83 | 14.41 |
| Corn | PRD | 6.28 | 6.57 | 6.71 | 7.104 | 7.38 | 7.90. |
| June Gold | N | 1396.0 | 1446.0 | 1476 | 1514 | 1560..0 | 1626.0 |
| July Silver | N | 23.79 | 29.76 | 33.40 | 36.79 | 44.87 | 54.10 |
| July Copper | N | 371 | 384 | 392 | 411 | 418 | 439 |
| June Crude | N | 82.30 | 90.18 | 93.74 | 101.49 | 110.38 | 122.27 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.