Top Day Recommendations
5.10.11
The hope that a newly refined bailout package will prevent a Greek default has markets higher this morning. The IMF is providing more money as long as certain state owned assets are pledged as collateral. Many in Greece are arguing against this. Many in the EC see a Greek modification leading to a modification for Ireland and Portugal so they are against it as well. And there are those who believe that a Greek modification won’t mean anything ultimately after all. The import price index is up 2.2%, higher than expected thanks to energy. Year over year that’s an increase of 11%, significant. EC is higher this morning, ore on an unwind of the EC/Yen cross than anything else. Chinese trade surplus balloons to 11.4 billion from expectations of 3.2 billion.
This Week's Calendar
May 09 - May 13
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| May 10 | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Apr | NA | NA | 1.3% | ||||||||
| May 10 | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Apr | NA | NA | 0.6% | ||||||||
| May 10 | 10:00 | Wholesale Inventories | Mar | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | ||||||||
| May 11 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 05/06 | NA | NA | +4% | ||||||||
| May 11 | 08:30 | Trade Balance | Mar | -$45.0B | -$47.8B | -$45.8B | ||||||||
| May 11 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 05/07 | NA | NA | 3.421M | ||||||||
| May 11 | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | Apr | NA | NA | $82.7B | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 05/07 | 400K | 423K | 474K | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 04/30 | 3700K | 3700K | 3733K | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | PPI | Apr | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | Core PPI | Apr | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | Retail Sales | Apr | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Apr | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | ||||||||
| May 12 | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Mar | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | ||||||||
| May 13 | 08:30 | CPI | Apr | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | ||||||||
| May 13 | 08:30 | Core CPI | Apr | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | ||||||||
| May 13 | 09:55 | Mich Sentiment | May | 70.5 | 69.8 | 69.8 | ||||||||
They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Emini | N | 1296 | 1315 | 1327 | 1347 | 1363 | 1392 |
| S+P | |||||||
| Emini Naz | N | 2124 | 2348 | 2361 | 2397 | 2413 | 2452 |
| Yen | P | 120.85 | 122.54 | 123.66 | 124.80 | 125.85 | 127.41. |
| EC | PRD | 138.83 | 141.10 | 142.20 | 145.00 | 147.34 | 151.45 |
| 10 Year | P | 120.09 | 121.09 | 121.23 | 122.21 | 122.27 | 123.14 |
| 30 Year | P | 121.00 | 122.21 | 123.17 | 124.30 | 125.12 | 126.14 |
| Soybeans | N | 12.49 | 12.87 | 13.08 | 13.42 | 13.83 | 14.41 |
| Corn | PRD | 6.28 | 6.57 | 6.71 | 7.104 | 7.38 | 7.90. |
| June Gold | N | 1396.0 | 1446.0 | 1476 | 1514 | 1560..0 | 1626.0 |
| July Silver | N | 23.79 | 29.76 | 33.40 | 36.79 | 44.87 | 54.10 |
| July Copper | N | 371 | 384 | 392 | 411 | 418 | 439 |
| June Crude | N | 82.30 | 90.18 | 93.74 | 101.49 | 110.38 | 122.27 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.