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Long liquidation overnight over fears that China would raise rates again

Top Day Recommendations

5.12.11

Weekly jobless claims down 44K. Continuing claims up. Retail sales up 0.5%, a bit lower than expected. US Producer Prices up 6.8% in April, higher than expected. China raises reserve ratios for banks, a tightening move.

Overnight, fears that China would raise rates again induced more long liquidation. Spain suffered its deadliest earthquake in 30 years. Australia’s unemployment report was a big miss probably due to the flooding. Nevertheless, as it is a commodity intensive currency and one of the hottest economies in the world, news that their unemployment report was a miss was a signal for another leg down in commodities and the market traded significantly lower. Yesterday, gasoline was clobbered and it’s down another 7 cents today. Even though the price went down, margins went up due to increased volatility. Margins should just be based on a percentage of the price of the underlying. When margins go up when the asset is falling only creates more volatility.

This Week's Calendar

May 09 - May 13

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 10 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Apr NA NA 1.3%
May 10 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Apr NA NA 0.6%
May 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Mar 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%
May 11 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 05/06 NA NA +4%
May 11 08:30 Trade Balance Mar -$45.0B -$47.8B -$45.8B
May 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 05/07 NA NA 3.421M
May 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Apr NA NA $82.7B
May 12 08:30 Initial Claims 05/07 400K 423K 474K
May 12 08:30 Continuing Claims 04/30 3700K 3700K 3733K
May 12 08:30 PPI Apr 0.5% 0.5% 0.7%
May 12 08:30 Core PPI Apr 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
May 12 08:30 Retail Sales Apr 1.0% 0.6% 0.4%
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 12 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Apr 1.0% 0.5% 0.8%
May 12 10:00 Business Inventories Mar 1.0% 0.9% 0.5%
May 13 08:30 CPI Apr 0.3% 0.4% 0.5%
May 13 08:30 Core CPI Apr 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
May 13 09:55 Mich Sentiment May 70.5 69.8 69.8

They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

P is Positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Emini S+P P 1296 1315 1328 1353 1363 1392
Emini Naz N 2124 2348 2373 2414 2413 2452
Yen PRD 120.85 122.54 122.68 124.57 125.85 127.41.
EC N 138.83 141.10 140.92 143.43 147.34 151.45
10 Year P 120.09 121.09 121.30 122.22 122.27 123.14
30 Year P 121.00 122.21 123.23 124.25 125.12 126.14
Soybeans P 12.49 12.87 13.12 13.45 13.83 14.41
Corn PRD 6.28 6.57 6.65 7.005 7.38 7.90.
June Gold P 1396.0 1446.0 1476 1520 1560..0 1626.0
July Silver P 23.79 29.76 32.21 38.31 44.87 54.10
July Copper N 371 384 385 402 418 439
June Crude N 82.30 90.18 95.60 102.70 110.38 122.27

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.