Top Day Recommendations
5.12.11
Weekly jobless claims down 44K. Continuing claims up. Retail sales up 0.5%, a bit lower than expected. US Producer Prices up 6.8% in April, higher than expected. China raises reserve ratios for banks, a tightening move.
Overnight, fears that China would raise rates again induced more long liquidation. Spain suffered its deadliest earthquake in 30 years. Australia’s unemployment report was a big miss probably due to the flooding. Nevertheless, as it is a commodity intensive currency and one of the hottest economies in the world, news that their unemployment report was a miss was a signal for another leg down in commodities and the market traded significantly lower. Yesterday, gasoline was clobbered and it’s down another 7 cents today. Even though the price went down, margins went up due to increased volatility. Margins should just be based on a percentage of the price of the underlying. When margins go up when the asset is falling only creates more volatility.
This Week's Calendar
May 09 - May 13
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| May 10 | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Apr | NA | NA | 1.3% | ||||||||
| May 10 | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Apr | NA | NA | 0.6% | ||||||||
| May 10 | 10:00 | Wholesale Inventories | Mar | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | ||||||||
| May 11 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 05/06 | NA | NA | +4% | ||||||||
| May 11 | 08:30 | Trade Balance | Mar | -$45.0B | -$47.8B | -$45.8B | ||||||||
| May 11 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 05/07 | NA | NA | 3.421M | ||||||||
| May 11 | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | Apr | NA | NA | $82.7B | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 05/07 | 400K | 423K | 474K | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 04/30 | 3700K | 3700K | 3733K | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | PPI | Apr | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | Core PPI | Apr | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | ||||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | Retail Sales | Apr | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| May 12 | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Apr | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | ||||||||
| May 12 | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Mar | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | ||||||||
| May 13 | 08:30 | CPI | Apr | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | ||||||||
| May 13 | 08:30 | Core CPI | Apr | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | ||||||||
| May 13 | 09:55 | Mich Sentiment | May | 70.5 | 69.8 | 69.8 | ||||||||
They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Emini S+P | P | 1296 | 1315 | 1328 | 1353 | 1363 | 1392 |
| Emini Naz | N | 2124 | 2348 | 2373 | 2414 | 2413 | 2452 |
| Yen | PRD | 120.85 | 122.54 | 122.68 | 124.57 | 125.85 | 127.41. |
| EC | N | 138.83 | 141.10 | 140.92 | 143.43 | 147.34 | 151.45 |
| 10 Year | P | 120.09 | 121.09 | 121.30 | 122.22 | 122.27 | 123.14 |
| 30 Year | P | 121.00 | 122.21 | 123.23 | 124.25 | 125.12 | 126.14 |
| Soybeans | P | 12.49 | 12.87 | 13.12 | 13.45 | 13.83 | 14.41 |
| Corn | PRD | 6.28 | 6.57 | 6.65 | 7.005 | 7.38 | 7.90. |
| June Gold | P | 1396.0 | 1446.0 | 1476 | 1520 | 1560..0 | 1626.0 |
| July Silver | P | 23.79 | 29.76 | 32.21 | 38.31 | 44.87 | 54.10 |
| July Copper | N | 371 | 384 | 385 | 402 | 418 | 439 |
| June Crude | N | 82.30 | 90.18 | 95.60 | 102.70 | 110.38 | 122.27 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.