Top Day Recommendations
5.19.11
Last data points of the week. Stocks were higher overnight and got a bit of a boost with weekly jobless claims down 29K. UK retail sales better but the trend on that currency is negative. The tsunami has officially thrown Japan into recession. The FOMC notes released yesterday suggested that the FED is looking to withdraw stimulus, just not in a hurry to literally raise rates. The end of QE2 is a defacto tightening, however as the buyer of first and last resort withdraws making the paper more expensive to draw buyers. Strangely we have a divergence today: there’s a seller in gold but not in silver. Bonds are finally coming off from their multi day rally.
June crude is coming off the board. Move to July asp.
Week of May 16 - May 20
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||||
| May 16 | 08:30 | Empire Manufacturing | May | 17 | 18 | 21.7 | |||||||||||
| May 16 | 09:00 | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | Mar | NA | NA | $26.9B | |||||||||||
| May 16 | 10:00 | NAHB Housing Market Index | May | 16 | 16 | 16 | |||||||||||
| May 17 | 08:30 | Housing Starts | Apr | 530K | 565K | 549K | |||||||||||
| May 17 | 08:30 | Building Permits | Apr | 570K | 590K | 594K | |||||||||||
| May 17 | 09:15 | Industrial Production | Apr | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | |||||||||||
| May 17 | 09:15 | Capacity Utilization | Apr | 77.5% | 77.7% | 77.4% | |||||||||||
| May 18 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 05/13 | NA | NA | +8.2% | |||||||||||
| May 18 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 05/14 | NA | NA | 3.781M | |||||||||||
| May 18 | 14:00 | FOMC Minutes | May | ||||||||||||||
| May 19 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 05/14 | 400K | 420K | 434K | |||||||||||
| May 19 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 05/07 | 3700K | 3713K | 3756K | |||||||||||
| May 19 | 10:00 | Existing Home Sales | Apr | 5.40M | 5.22M | 5.10M | |||||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| May 19 | 10:00 | Philadelphia Fed | May | 15 | 17.5 | 18.5 | ||||||||
| May 19 | 10:00 | Leading Indicators | Apr | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | ||||||||
They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Emini S+P | P | 1311 | 1322.50 | 1328.50 | 1350.0 | 1352` | 1369 |
| Emini Naz | PRD | 2338.50 | 2363.50 | 2341.50 | 2373 | 2400.50 | 2431 |
| Yen | PRD | 121.97` | 122.84 | 121.62 | 123.31 | 124.68 | 125.65 |
| EC | N | 138.21 | 139.60 | 141.75 | 142.68 | 143.46 | 145.69 |
| 10 Year | P | 121.05 | 121.26 | 121.29 | 123.02 | 123.02 | 123.20 |
| 30 Year | P | 122.21 | 123.17 | 123.22 | 125.01 | 125.07 | 126.01 |
| Soybeans | P | 12.88 | 13.08 | 13.51 | 13.97 | 13.55 | 13.804 |
| Corn | P | 6.234 | 6.526 | 7.306 | 7.69 | 7.174 | 7.53 |
| June Gold | N | 1450.3 | 1472.2 | 1487.0 | 1502.0 | 1521.4 | 1548.7 |
| July Silver | P | 28.53 | 31.94 | 34.11 | 35.81 | 39.10 | 42.87 |
| July Copper | PRD | 375 | 387.7 | 404.40 | 411.50 | 410.80 | 421.10 |
| July Crude | N | 90.83 | 94.86 | 98.54. | 101.99 | 104.20 | 109.08 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.