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Durable goods orders come in worse than expected

Top Day Recommendations

5.25.11

Durable goods orders come in worse than expected but the previous month has a spectacular upward revision. This briefly ruffled the markets. Ahmadinejad’s removal as the head of the Iranian delegation to the next OPEC meeting suggests that power swings back to the more moderate Saudis. This is a major personal setback for him. GM adds shifts and workers to man them. Gold options come off the board today. Equities in a very sluggish pattern lately with late afternoon fizzles as opposed to short covering. One would expect some end of the moth window dressing ahead of the three day holiday, however.

Week of May 23 - May 27

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 24 10:00 New Home Sales Apr 290K 300K 300K
May 25 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 05/20 NA NA +7.8%
May 25 08:30 Durable Orders Apr -2.0% -2.0% 4.1% 2.9%
May 25 08:30 Durable Orders -ex Transportation Apr 0.5% 0.6% 2.3% 1.8%
May 25 10:00 FHFA Housing Price Index Mar NA NA -1.6%
May 25 10:30 Crude Inventories 05/21 NA NA -15K
May 26 08:30 GDP - Second Estimate Q1 1.8% 2.0% 1.8%
May 26 08:30 GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q1 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
May 26 08:30 Initial Claims 05/21 400K 400K 409K
May 26 08:30 Continuing Claims 05/14 3700K 3700K 3711K
May 27 08:30 Personal Income Apr 0.5% 0.4% 0.5%
May 27 08:30 Personal Spending Apr 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
May 27 08:30 PCE Prices - Core Apr 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
May 27 09:55 Michigan Sentiment - Final May 72.6 72.4 72.4
May 27 10:00 Pending Home Sales Mar 1.0% -1.8% 5.1%

They are good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

P is Positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Emini S+P N 1300.25 1315.75 1343.50 1359.25
Emini Naz N 2290 2321 2371 2400
Yen P 120.31 122.21 123.86 125.15
EC N 138.90 140.43 143.45 144.92
10 Year P 121.13 122.03 123.08 123.27
30 Year P 122.22 123.24 125.28 126.30
Soybeans PRD 12.79 13.29 13.73 14.46
Corn PRD 6.614 7.104 7.866 8.14
June Gold P 1455.4 1484.5 1529.2 1544
July Silver P 31.805 34.58 36.23 37.85
July Copper N 386.50 395.65 418 426.70
July Crude N 93.07 94.55 102.30 104.80

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.