Top Day Recommendations
5.27.11
Kind of an active data day with income and spending, the PCE prices paid and core then the University of Michigan Consumer confidence. Overnight, the Swiss Franc makes new highs against the dollar. Caveat emptor, we are getting to levels where the Swiss will intervene. Holidays are excellent times for such actions. Lack of liquidity actually works in favor of the intervention. The Greeks still seem to be pushing back against any austerity measures. Personal income and spending come in about as expected. Window dressing continued yesterday on Wall Street despite less than inspiring economic figures. Expect more book squaring and risk coming off the table as we head towards noon and the European closing. Of course, US is closed Monday for Memorial Day, a time for needed rest and reflection.
Week of May 23 - May 27
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||||||||
| May 24 | 10:00 | New Home Sales | Apr | 290K | 300K | 300K | |||||||||||||||
| May 25 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 05/20 | NA | NA | +7.8% | |||||||||||||||
| May 25 | 08:30 | Durable Orders | Apr | -2.0% | -2.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | ||||||||||||||
| May 25 | 08:30 | Durable Orders -ex Transportation | Apr | 0.5% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | ||||||||||||||
| May 25 | 10:00 | FHFA Housing Price Index | Mar | NA | NA | -1.6% | |||||||||||||||
| May 25 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 05/21 | NA | NA | -15K | |||||||||||||||
| May 26 | 08:30 | GDP - Second Estimate | Q1 | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | |||||||||||||||
| May 26 | 08:30 | GDP Deflator - Second Estimate | Q1 | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | |||||||||||||||
| May 26 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 05/21 | 400K | 400K | 409K | |||||||||||||||
| May 26 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 05/14 | 3700K | 3700K | 3711K | |||||||||||||||
| May 27 | 08:30 | Personal Income | Apr | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | |||||||||||||||
| May 27 | 08:30 | Personal Spending | Apr | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | |||||||||||||||
| May 27 | 08:30 | PCE Prices - Core | Apr | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |||||||||||||||
| May 27 | 09:55 | Michigan Sentiment - Final | May | 72.6 | 72.4 | 72.4 | |||||||||||||||
| May 27 | 10:00 | Pending Home Sales | Mar | 1.0% | -1.8% | 5.1% | |||||||||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Emini S+P | PRD | 1300.25 | 1315.75 | 1317 | 1331.50 | 1343.50 | 1359.25 |
| Emini Naz | PRD | 2290 | 2321 | 2307 | 2368 | 2371 | 2400 |
| Yen | P | 120.31 | 122.21 | 122.12 | 122.53 | 123.86 | 125.15 |
| EC | N | 138.90 | 140.43 | 140.65 | 142.75 | 143.45 | 144.92 |
| 10 Year | P | 121.13 | 122.03 | 123.05 | 124.03 | 123.08 | 123.27 |
| 30 Year | P | 122.22 | 123.24 | 125.02 | 126.15 | 125.28 | 126.30 |
| Soybeans | P | 12.79 | 13.29 | 13.75 | 13.96 | 13.73 | 14.46 |
| Corn | P | 6.614 | 7.104 | 7.35 | 7.54 | 7.866 | 8.14 |
| August Gold | P | 1455.4 | 1484.5 | 1515.5 | 1532.0 | 1529.2 | 1544 |
| July Silver | P | 31.805 | 34.58 | 36.11 | 38.69 | 36.23 | 37.85 |
| July Copper | P | 386.50 | 395.65 | 407.60 | 417.30 | 418 | 426.70 |
| July Crude | N | 93.07 | 94.55 | 99.26 | 101.55 | 102.30 | 104.80 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.