Top Day Recommendations
6.03.11
The unemployment number comes in at 54K. The headline number comes in 9.1%. These are disappointing numbers. Supposedly, the recent rash of bad weather in the Midwest wasn’t a factor in these numbers. I guess the ADP private jobs forecast was closer than most hoped this time. Stocks will be under pressure early then they might "see" beyond this event as the day unfolds. The reflex reaction is lower crude, lower commodity currencies, higher Yen and SF on risk aversion. Again, inflationary fears are somewhat misplaced as there are three legs to the model. With these employment numbers, there certainly isn’t wage inflation. Housing remains underwater so there isn’t property valuation inflation while there is commodity inflation with higher grains, gold at 1500, the price of oil, etc. Seems to be more a model of stagflation. These unemployment numbers certainly won’t help the real estate sector. The bond bears will continue to have to wait. Will there be a QE3? The guess from this vantage is no. The problem going forward is not to heed the calls for greater restraint but to create jobs, then create more jobs and more jobs after that.
The chart below is a reprise from yesterday with the speculative suggestion that the EC will eventually trade at a 130 handle.
Conveniently enough, 149.25 (the approximate high) - 139.63 (proximate low) = 9.62. 139.63 – 9.62 = 130.01. Fearful symmetry?
Week of May 30 - June 03
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| May 31 | 09:00 | Case-Shiller 20-city Index | Mar | -3.7% | -3.4% | -3.33% | ||||||||
| May 31 | 09:45 | Chicago PMI | May | 63.0 | 62.5 | 67.6 | ||||||||
| May 31 | 10:00 | Consumer Confidence | May | 67.5 | 66.3 | 65.4 | ||||||||
| Jun 01 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 05/27 | NA | NA | +1.1% | ||||||||
| Jun 01 | 07:30 | Challenger Job Cuts | May | NA | NA | -5.0% | ||||||||
| Jun 01 | 08:15 | ADP Employment Change | May | 190K | 170K | 179K | ||||||||
| Jun 01 | 10:00 | ISM Index | May | 57.0 | 57.6 | 60.4 | ||||||||
| Jun 01 | 10:00 | Construction Spending | Apr | -1.0% | -0.5% | 1.4% | ||||||||
| Jun 01 | 15:00 | Auto Sales | Jun | NA | NA | 4.73M | ||||||||
| Jun 01 | 15:00 | Truck Sales | Jun | NA | NA | 5.38M | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||||||||
| Jun 02 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 05/28 | 400K | 413K | 424K | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 02 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 05/21 | 3700K | 3688K | 3690K | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 02 | 08:30 | Productivity-Rev. | Q1 | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 02 | 08:30 | Unit Labor Costs-Rev. | Q1 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 02 | 10:00 | Factory Orders | Apr | -2.0% | -1.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | ||||||||||||||
| Jun 02 | 11:00 | Crude Inventories | 05/28 | NA | NA | 616K | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 03 | 08:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls | May | 175K | 185K | 244K | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 03 | 08:30 | Nonfarm Private Payrolls | May | 190K | 220K | 268K | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 03 | 08:30 | Unemployment Rate | May | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 03 | 08:30 | Hourly Earnings | May | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 03 | 08:30 | Average Workweek | May | 34.3 | 34.3% | 34.3 | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 03 | 10:00 | ISM Services | May | 53.5 | 53.3 | 52.8 | |||||||||||||||
- Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Some of these numbers are badly skewed due to Monday’s holiday when some markets were closed, others open
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Emini S+P | PRD | 1290.50 | 1310 | 1298 | 1318.75 | 1342.5 | 1353.50 |
| Emini Naz | P | 2257 | 2295 | 2303 | 2336 | 2257 | 2380.50 |
| Yen | P | 120.80 | 122.57 | 123.00 | 124.31 | 124.57 | 125.40 |
| EC | P | 138.40 | 140.50 | 143.64 | 145.54 | 143.90 | 145.14 |
| Sep 10 Year | P | 122.10 | 12303 | 122.23 | 123.11 | 124.10 | 124.25 |
| Sep 30 Year | P | 124.04 | 125.0 | 124.11 | 125.28 | 126.13 | 126.30 |
| Soybeans | P | 13.485 | 13.642 | 13.90 | 14.19 | 13.966 | 14.136 |
| Corn | P | 7.05 | 7.317 | 7.49 | 7.72 | 7.75 | 8.015 |
| August Gold | P | 1456.6 | 1485.0 | 1520.2 | 1545.3 | 1529.4 | 1545.4 |
| July Silver | P | 32.56 | 35.29 | 34.51 | 37.22 | 39.80 | 41.57 |
| July Copper | N | 386.50 | 402.5 | 403.60 | 417 | 426.6 | 435.16 |
| July Crude | N | 94.14 | 97.44 | 97.50 | 101.40 | 103.22 | 105.20 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
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MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
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ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
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INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
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EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
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OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
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