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Oil continues to climb higher

Top Day Recommendations

6.09.11

Oil continues to climb higher overnight while FX traders await the coded statement of Jean Claude Trichet to figure out if the ECB will be raising rates in July. Trichet uses the phrase "strong vigilance" in his communiqué. This is code for higher rates which may already be baked into the pricing of the EC. Meanwhile Moody’s sees increased threat of peripheral default. Trichet’s comments have set off volatility in the FX space with long wick candles being drawn on the charts. Stocks have caught a bid but rallies will continue to be contained during this time period. Crosses predominate in FX trading with Canadian being favored over Aussie for the first time in forever. Looks like buy the rumor sell the news with the EC which is now down on the day. OPEC convened and couldn’t agree on anything in terms of production quotas and they all went home. Iran and Venezuela want prices higher and the Saudis don’t want to antagonize the market. Clearly, power lines are being redrawn in the Middle East.

Week of June 06 - June 10

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Apr $6.5B $6.0B $6.0B
Jun 08 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 06/04 NA NA -4.0%
Jun 08 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/03 NA NA 2878K
Jun 08 14:00 Fed's Beige Book Jun
Jun 09 08:30 Initial Claims 06/04 430K 423K 422K
Jun 08:30 Continuing Claims 05/28 3700K 3688K 3711K
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
09
Jun 09 08:30 Trade Balance Apr -$47.5B -$48.7B -$48.2B
Jun 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Apr 0.8% 0.9% 1.1%
Jun 10 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. May NA NA 1.0%
Jun 10 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil May NA NA 0.6%
Jun 10 14:00 Treasury Budget May NA NA -$135.9B

- Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

P is Positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

Some of these numbers are badly skewed due to Monday’s holiday when some markets were closed, others open

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Emini S+P N 1259.50 1277.90 1263 1278 1331 1366
Emini Naz N 2221 2254 2233.50 2264.75 2350 2413
Yen P 121.30 122.95 124.60 125.56 125.58 126.58
EC P 141.15 143.78 144.80 146.36 147.57 148.95
Sep 10 Year P 121.30 122.12 123.10 124.01 124.01
Sep 30 Year P 122.29 124.03 125.00 126.23 126.12 127.15
Soybeans P 13.47 13.80 13.84 14.04 14.33 14.53
Corn P 7.26 7.46 7.50 7.75 7.69 7.84
August Gold PRD 1492.70 1515.1 1531.2 1546 1549.7 1561.9
July Silver PRD 32.56 35.29 36.04 37.22 39.80 41.57
July Copper P 386.50 402.30 399.80 416.00 426.60 435.0
July Crude N 95.42 97.99 98.50 102.40 103.26 105.96

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.