Top Day Recommendations
6.09.11
Oil continues to climb higher overnight while FX traders await the coded statement of Jean Claude Trichet to figure out if the ECB will be raising rates in July. Trichet uses the phrase "strong vigilance" in his communiqué. This is code for higher rates which may already be baked into the pricing of the EC. Meanwhile Moody’s sees increased threat of peripheral default. Trichet’s comments have set off volatility in the FX space with long wick candles being drawn on the charts. Stocks have caught a bid but rallies will continue to be contained during this time period. Crosses predominate in FX trading with Canadian being favored over Aussie for the first time in forever. Looks like buy the rumor sell the news with the EC which is now down on the day. OPEC convened and couldn’t agree on anything in terms of production quotas and they all went home. Iran and Venezuela want prices higher and the Saudis don’t want to antagonize the market. Clearly, power lines are being redrawn in the Middle East.
Week of June 06 - June 10
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||||
| Jun 07 | 15:00 | Consumer Credit | Apr | $6.5B | $6.0B | $6.0B | |||||||||||
| Jun 08 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 06/04 | NA | NA | -4.0% | |||||||||||
| Jun 08 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 06/03 | NA | NA | 2878K | |||||||||||
| Jun 08 | 14:00 | Fed's Beige Book | Jun | ||||||||||||||
| Jun 09 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 06/04 | 430K | 423K | 422K | |||||||||||
| Jun | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 05/28 | 3700K | 3688K | 3711K | |||||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| 09 | ||||||||||||||
| Jun 09 | 08:30 | Trade Balance | Apr | -$47.5B | -$48.7B | -$48.2B | ||||||||
| Jun 09 | 10:00 | Wholesale Inventories | Apr | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | ||||||||
| Jun 10 | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | May | NA | NA | 1.0% | ||||||||
| Jun 10 | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | May | NA | NA | 0.6% | ||||||||
| Jun 10 | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | May | NA | NA | -$135.9B | ||||||||
- Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Some of these numbers are badly skewed due to Monday’s holiday when some markets were closed, others open
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Emini S+P | N | 1259.50 | 1277.90 | 1263 | 1278 | 1331 | 1366 | ||||||
| Emini Naz | N | 2221 | 2254 | 2233.50 | 2264.75 | 2350 | 2413 | ||||||
| Yen | P | 121.30 | 122.95 | 124.60 | 125.56 | 125.58 | 126.58 | ||||||
| EC | P | 141.15 | 143.78 | 144.80 | 146.36 | 147.57 | 148.95 | ||||||
| Sep 10 Year | P | 121.30 | 122.12 | 123.10 | 124.01 | 124.01 | |||||||
| Sep 30 Year | P | 122.29 | 124.03 | 125.00 | 126.23 | 126.12 | 127.15 | ||||||
| Soybeans | P | 13.47 | 13.80 | 13.84 | 14.04 | 14.33 | 14.53 | ||||||
| Corn | P | 7.26 | 7.46 | 7.50 | 7.75 | 7.69 | 7.84 | ||||||
| August Gold | PRD | 1492.70 | 1515.1 | 1531.2 | 1546 | 1549.7 | 1561.9 | ||||||
| July Silver | PRD | 32.56 | 35.29 | 36.04 | 37.22 | 39.80 | 41.57 | ||||||
| July Copper | P | 386.50 | 402.30 | 399.80 | 416.00 | 426.60 | 435.0 | ||||||
| July Crude | N | 95.42 | 97.99 | 98.50 | 102.40 | 103.26 | 105.96 | ||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.