Top Day Market News
6.13.12
We get a potential market mover today with the release of retail sales at 8:30. Also, Produce Price Index, Core PPI (minus food and energy without which life itself would not be possible) and oil inventories at 10:30.
Overnight, fairly quiet. Strength in the EC might be the most surprising move. Of course, the theatrical moment of the day will be the testimony of Jamie Dimon today on the Hill. The question is was the Whale managing risk or running a book? As long as banks are being run as hedge funds, Whales will beach themselves with greater frequency than one would think.
As far as the Eurozone sovereign debt problem, the Germans drag their heels because in their eyes a bailout, by the book, is non-constitutional (it violates the Maastricht treaty). They also point to the Bundesbank financing of the Greek and Portuguese current account deficits with contributions of $874 billion over 5 years and the purchase of $250 billion in government bonds by the ECB. If Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain repudiate their debts, Germany would lose $899 billion and if the Euro fails as a currency, they would lose $1.35 trillion. They also refer to the Marshall plan which helped Germany return to economic viability after WW2 which in today’s dollars would be equivalent of $5 billion dollars. If you apply these numbers to aid offered to Greece, they have received the equivalent of 115 Marshall plans and the situation hasn’t approved.
|
Week of June 11 - June 15 |
||||||||
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Jun 12 |
08:30 |
|
May |
|
NA |
NA |
0.2% |
|
|
Jun 12 |
08:30 |
|
May |
|
NA |
NA |
0.1% |
|
|
Jun 12 |
14:00 |
|
May |
|
NA |
-$125.0B |
-$57.6B |
|
|
Jun 13 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
06/09 |
|
NA |
NA |
1.3% |
|
|
Jun 13 |
08:30 |
|
May |
|
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
Jun 13 |
08:30 |
|
May |
|
-0.1% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
|
Jun 13 |
08:30 |
|
May |
|
-0.4% |
-0.7% |
-0.2% |
|
|
Jun 13 |
08:30 |
|
May |
|
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
Jun 13 |
10:00 |
|
Apr |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
|
Jun 13 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
06/09 |
|
NA |
NA |
-0.111M |
|
|
Jun 14 |
08:30 |
|
06/09 |
|
375K |
375K |
377K |
|
|
Jun 14 |
08:30 |
|
06/02 |
|
3250K |
3275K |
3293K |
|
|
Jun 14 |
08:30 |
|
May |
|
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
Jun 14 |
08:30 |
|
May |
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
|
Jun 14 |
08:30 |
Current Account Balance |
Q1 |
|
-$130.0B |
-$130.9B |
- $124.1B |
|
|
Jun 15 |
08:30 |
Empire Manufacturing |
Jun |
|
10.0 |
13.5 |
17.1 |
|
|
Jun 15 |
09:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC Flows |
Apr |
|
NA |
NA |
$36.2B |
|
|
Jun |
09:15 |
May |
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jun 15 |
09:15 |
|
May |
|
79.2% |
79.1% |
79.2% |
|
|
Jun 15 |
09:55 |
|
Jun |
|
77.0 |
77.0 |
79.3 |
|
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on
Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on
Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Sept ES |
U |
1241.50 |
1281.50 |
1304.50 |
1328.00 |
1342.5 0 |
1363.25 |
|
Sept Nasdaq |
U |
2387.50 |
2472.25 |
2517.75 |
2559.50 |
2603.2 5 |
2649.50 |
|
June Yen |
D |
123.50 |
124.70 |
125.01 |
126.25 |
127.62 |
129.40 |
|
June EC |
D |
122.65 |
123.86 |
124.04 |
125.39 |
126.76 |
127.47 |
|
Sept 10 Year |
D |
132.02 |
132.27 |
132.20 |
133.23 |
134.17 |
135.20 |
|
Sept 30 Year |
D |
145.08 |
147.14 |
147.02 |
149.09 |
151.15 |
154.10 |
|
Nov Soybeans |
U |
12.07 |
12.70 |
13.23 |
13.50 |
13.63 |
14.07 |
|
Sept Corn |
U |
5.02 |
5.265 |
|
|
5.63 |
5.76 |
|
Aug Gold |
U |
1511.90 |
1553.50 |
1593 |
1638 |
1639.5 0 |
1683.90 |
|
July Silver |
D |
26.78 |
27.62 |
28.49 |
29.22 |
29.57 |
30.69 |
|
July Copper |
D |
313 |
322 |
330 |
338 |
341 |
352 |
|
July Crude |
U |
78.37 |
81.35 |
81.68 |
84.33 |
87.17 |
90.01 |
|
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